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Post by huh on Mar 15, 2017 7:00:08 GMT -5
10 things you need to know before the opening bell (SPY, SPX, QQQ, DIA, TWTR, WAG) The Fed is expected to hike rates. World Interest Rate probability data provided by Bloomberg shows a 100% chance the Fed hikes at Wednesday's meeting. Traders will be paying close attention to the Fed's dot plot for hints of the projected rate hike path. Stocks just did something they haven't done since 1995. The S&P 500 hasn't had a 1% down day in 105 straight sessions, the longest streak since in 22 years. UK unemployment dips.Unemployment in the UK fell to 4.7%, its lowest since the summer of 1975. However, real wage growth slowed to 0.8%, its weakest since October 2014. The Netherlands is going to the polls. No party is expected to win an overall majority with prime minister Mark Rutte's center-right party and Geert Wilders's far-right party expected to perform well, according to the BBC. Oil is making a comeback. West Texas Intermediate crude oil trades up 1.7% at $48.54 per barrel and is on track to end its six-day skid. Selling on Tuesday pushed the price down to $47.09, its weakest since the end of November. An early Twitter investor hates the stock. Venture Capitalist Chris Sacca, who was one of Twitter's first investors, once said he would defend the stock like one of his children, but he now he loves the service and hates the stock. Sacca tweeted that his fund sold most of its shares after Jack Dorsey was brought back as CEO in October 2015 and that he sold his personal shares in the fall of 2016. Walgreens plans to sell more assets to win approval for its takeover of Rite Aid. The pharmacy chain is in talks to sell more assets to Tennessee-based discount chain Fred's in order to win regulatory approval for its proposed takeover of Rite Aid, Bloomberg reports. Stock markets around the world are mixed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0.2%) trailed in Asia and Britain's FTSE (+0.3%) is out front in Europe. The S&P 500 is on track to open up 0.2% at 2,370. Earnings reporting is light. Oracle will report after markets close. US economic data is heavy. Empire Manufacturing, CPI, and retail sales will all be released at 8:30 a.m. ET while the NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is down 2 basis points at 2.59%. markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/opening-bell-march-15-2017-2017-3-1001836913
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Post by huh on Mar 15, 2017 7:00:58 GMT -5
10 things in tech you need to know today 1. The US Department of Justice is reportedly going to charge two hackers in relation to last year's Yahoo hack, which compromised 1 billion accounts. The two people, a Russian and Canadian, both have ties to Russia. 2. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Cisco have filed an amicus brief to help Google fight an order to hand over foreign emails to the FBI. The four companies argued that handing over data stored outside the US was an "invasion of privacy". 3. Mark Zuckerberg talked to North Carolina students about diversity, but his company employs fewer black people than Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Yahoo. He also defended Trump advisor Peter Thiel's position on Facebook's board, saying the company needed "diversity of viewpoints." 4. Former Google Ventures CEO Bill Maris is reportedly going to raise his own $100 million fund after saying the world didn't need "another venture fund." It will focus on biotech and healthcare startups and be based near Maris' home, San Diego. 5. The main executive caught up in Alphabet's Uber lawsuit started as working as a consultant for Uber much earlier than originally thought. Anthony Levandowski was consulting for Uber's self-driving arm weeks before launching Otto, which Uber eventually bought. 6. Uber has hired Cambridge AI academic Zoubin Ghahramani as its chief scientist. Ghahramani will oversee the company's AI Labs in San Francisco. 7. Google's updated Chrome browser won't consume so much battery life. The updated version will "throttle" tabs you have open in the background so they don't eat up so much power. 8. Ukraine's prime ministerVolodymyr Groysman got in touch with Elon Musk about energy storage. Groysman tweeted the Tesla and SolarCity CEO, saying the company wanted to be a "test site for innovation", after Musk had discussed providing Australia with an energy solution. 9. Lots of high-profile Twitter accounts began posting swastikas and Nazi-related updates after a third-party Twitter tool got hacked. The hack affected accounts from Forbes and the European Parliament, among others, and appeared to come from the Twitter Counter analytics tool. 10. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has chosen Jeffrey Helbling, formerly vice president of Amazon's Kindle division, to be his new technical advisor. The role is known as being Bezos' "shadow", since it requires working with and assisting him on a daily basis. www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-today-march-15-2017-3
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Post by huh on Mar 15, 2017 7:01:36 GMT -5
Frontrunning: March 15 What to watch at the Fed meeting (FT) Dutch vote in test of anti-elite sentiment in Europe (Reuters) Where Are the Battlegrounds in the Dutch Election? (BBG) Erdogan says Dutch have ‘rotten character’ as row escalates (FT) How the Fed Convinced Markets It’ll Raise Rates This Week (BBG) GOP Senators Say Health Bill Won’t Pass Unless Changed (WSJ) Merkel, Trump Face Host of Troubling Differences (WSJ) Oil Gains as IEA Says Time Needed to Drain Glut (BBG) Trump to nominate Chris Giancarlo to head CFTC (FT) Saudi deputy crown prince, Trump meeting a 'turning point': Saudi adviser (Reuters) How to Lose $4 Billion: Bill Ackman's Long Ride Down on Valeant (BBG) Conservative news site sole media outlet on Tillerson Asia trip (Reuters) Tillerson's email alias was prompted by business needs, Exxon says (Reuters) Auto Industry Aims to Roll With Trump’s Nafta Changes (WSJ) House Republicans Take Their Own Path on Trump’s Border Wall (BBG) Trump Shift Puts Landmark Korean Trade Pact at Risk (WSJ) It's a Good Time to Find a Job in These Countries, But Don't Expect a Big Raise (BBG) Citi: Le Pen Win Would Wipe Out 25% From French Bank Shares (BBG) Steve Cohen Said to Eye Computers to Model Top Traders' Thinking (BBG) UK Jobless Rate Matches Lowest Since 1975 (BBG) After six years, Assad now secure but his country carved up as war thunders on (Reuters) Zara Owner's Margin Shrinks to Eight-Year Low on Currencies (BBG) G-20 Checks In for Detox as Germany Seeks Backing for Free Trade (BBG) Heavy fighting as Iraqi forces set sights on Mosul's Grand Mosque (Reuters) www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-15/frontrunning-march-15
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Post by huh on Mar 15, 2017 7:16:44 GMT -5
Well, with the exception of oil pulling back, I think I've been wrong about every short term call I've made. Seems the market isn't doing as expected and simply churning over and under resistances/support. Here's what I do feel confident about: As Mist has mentioned, S&P is creating a H&S here. However, it has a few upside gaps above here now, both of which I believe will get filled before the H&S downside target fully plays out. Whether this could mean a new high when these get filled is hard to say. Both IBB and AAPL look as if they will see higher yet, and if so, that would mean a higher high for S&P. If that happens, hopefully it does it with a quick move to or above its upper BB (aka blow-off top). But that up move may not begin until it confirms under the H&S neckline (an optimum squeeze) S&P chart showing H&S and upside gaps
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Post by huh on Mar 15, 2017 7:21:53 GMT -5
I also believe that VX will see down to at last ~11.72, and VXX down to ~16.20. However, the recent rounded bearish continuation patterns in both both suggest they could even far surpass those targets to the downside.
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Post by huh on Mar 15, 2017 7:29:47 GMT -5
A look at the QQQ's. I think it'll get back above the channel - but, if it does for a new high, and then falls back into the channel, then that would be very bearish as it would only signal that a H&S pattern got squeezed for a final higher high (this is typically how rounded tops are formed - around a failed rising channel or wedge):
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Post by huh on Mar 15, 2017 7:34:04 GMT -5
VX under 12.28 now would be a strong positive signal for market bulls (or those short the VIX scams). It's this chart, and the VXX chart, that makes it hard to believe S&P won't squeeze its H&S (even if after confirming it first) and at least fill those upside gaps, if not even hit a new high.
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Post by huh on Mar 15, 2017 7:47:21 GMT -5
I won't be around to watch the reaction to the Fed decision today but watch that H&S in S&P. Above the shoulder test line, or below the neckline (perhaps filling the downside gap ~2350?) then back above the neckline, either would be bullish.
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 8:03:58 GMT -5
Well, I got my miracle on ice this morning. It's a miracle that I didn't slip and kill myself on the sheet of ice on my driveway. lol
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 8:12:35 GMT -5
I won't be around to watch the reaction to the Fed decision today but watch that H&S in S&P. Above the shoulder test line, or below the neckline (perhaps filling the downside gap ~2350?) then back above the neckline, either would be bullish. The way I see it, obviously, the H&S has to confirm by dropping below neckline w/successful backtest to be a valid pattern. Also, S&P made a breakaway GAP (2320 range), runaway gap (S&P 2351 range), and then an Exhaustion GAP in 2370 range. Usually that indicates reversal w/exhaustion gap. However, if S&P does confirm H&S pattern and then throws back over neckline and gets over RS test line, I agree that would be bullish and cause a bear squeeze. Any move above right shoulder line test (even after getting H&S confirmation) would possibly negate the pattern in my book, especially if rises up for Head test. If H&S pattern doesn't confirm at all and rises up to fill those common gaps and possibly a head test, that would also negate the pattern in my book. Then the best chance bears have is a possible double top.
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 8:17:14 GMT -5
I see VXX chart as still being bearish However, I see a potential H&S forming on S&P cash, futures charts which is bearish also. VXX H&S is confirmed and S&P isn't. It will be very interesting to see if this S&P H&S pattern turns out to be a continuation pattern or plays out.. SCAMs will definitely move during the FOMC announcement and its usually down. image hosting websites
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Post by huh on Mar 15, 2017 8:24:56 GMT -5
S&P hanging around the shoulder test line in pre-market. What bulls don't want to see is a fill of yesterday's gap then a fall back below the shoulder test line. That would mean a move below the neckline over the next few hours.
But even if it does, I do still think this H&S will get squeezed.
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Post by walnut on Mar 15, 2017 8:33:30 GMT -5
Hope to see the VIX index falling by lunch
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Post by huh on Mar 15, 2017 8:47:48 GMT -5
Watch that VX 12.28. Losing that support is key for markets to head higher
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 8:52:26 GMT -5
S&P hanging around the shoulder test line in pre-market. What bulls don't want to see is a fill of yesterday's gap then a fall back below the shoulder test line. That would mean a move below the neckline over the next few hours. But even if it does, I do still think this H&S will get squeezed. I'm not used to seeing you bullish.
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 8:52:53 GMT -5
I was on important phone call so missed the entire move this morning so far
And missed a nice short VXX scalp but now I'm probably just going to wait to see if morning VXX gap gets filled by fomc announcement
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Post by huh on Mar 15, 2017 8:55:31 GMT -5
Watch that VX 12.28. Losing that support is key for markets to head higher Well that and 12.20's in general. There's a final FIB support ~12.22 which should act as some support.
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Post by huh on Mar 15, 2017 8:56:14 GMT -5
S&P hanging around the shoulder test line in pre-market. What bulls don't want to see is a fill of yesterday's gap then a fall back below the shoulder test line. That would mean a move below the neckline over the next few hours. But even if it does, I do still think this H&S will get squeezed. I'm not used to seeing you bullish. I'm not so sure a call for a final rise to a long term market top is all that bullish LOL
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Post by walnut on Mar 15, 2017 9:00:02 GMT -5
Contango on my computer is back over 12 again. I hadn't noticed that Vixcentral.com VIX index quote updates slowly. I don't know if it has always been like that and I just didn't notice. So for now their contango reads higher.
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Post by walnut on Mar 15, 2017 9:00:40 GMT -5
VIX now 11.79 that is what we wanted
oops bounced back up
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