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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 16:11:52 GMT -5
you have the same charts I do mist. No need to post one. gotcha - but I don't see how that's possible since after I just looked at charts just now -- I see a Bearish formation that just formed that can take S&P all the way down to SP2300 and possibly lower I just drew it on my charts and was going to post it. So, I didn't want to post my thoughts just yet as to influence what you were thinking. Do you feel S&P is headed to new all time highs or lower moving forward? looking at timeframe of maybe next 2-3 months Is S&P in counter trend up? VXX trend? Again, I don't want to influence your thinking and I'll post the bearish pattern I possibly see forming. I don't even like to tell Jim (sp500chart.com) as to influence his thinking and he's my mentor. What good is it if everyone is thinking the same thing as me Seriously, let me know your thoughts. Please, if you don't mind. Thx
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 15, 2017 16:29:09 GMT -5
I don't really like to tie myself to a forcast of such magnitude. I find it doesn't really help with trading because I could very well see an opportunity tomorrow and act on it.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 15, 2017 16:30:50 GMT -5
Either way, even if the market hits a new high, I wouldn't become more bullish on that alone.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 15, 2017 16:32:39 GMT -5
I'm a humbled trader. I don't like to have to make myself right if the market goes against me. So my opinion is a glimpse of what I'm acting on and feel at that moment in time.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 15, 2017 16:34:29 GMT -5
Although I love charts, I don't believe you can use a chart as your only source to make money in the market. There's a lot of in between moves before a prediction may be confirmed. Usually everyone uses the same charts so the algos can take advantage of what everyone sees before it lets it swing the other way-- the original way you thought it would go.
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 16:45:21 GMT -5
Ok - so the honest answer is you simply don't know -- and that's fine
But would you agree that what I do -- posting charts w/insight and calls on a real time intraday basis with these fast moving VIX ETPs is a very difficult task? And its in an entirely different league than someone who just looks at the charts when market is closed and gives you their insight for markets moving forward?
I'll post charts with my thoughts shortly
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 17:00:36 GMT -5
VIX ETPs (VXX, TVIX, UVXY) have all been in a DOWN TREND since their inception and even if S&P corrected or entered into a bear market -- their trend will still be down. Any spike in volatility, is simply counter to its trend. TVIX prospectus even tells you that over long run, its headed basically to zero and worthless. The real value of TVIX adjusted for reverse splits is probably .00014893094. Here is VXX Monthly and Daily charts which shows the major down trend it has been in since inception. Even with a bear market, VXX will never get above its inception price and will NEVER be in an UPTREND. Last correction, TVIX spiked 550% which is way short of its inception price. If TVIX had been around during the bear market, it would have gone up 15X and still would never make it back to its inception price and will never enter an UPTREND. Spikes in VIX ETPs (VXX, TVIX, UVXY) are counter to their natural down trend. So, as you know, when you have trading vehicle that is constantly in a down trend, the best move is to simply short it, making sure you are able to survive and take advantage of the spikes that are counter to its down trend. VXX monthly chart image ru VXX daily chart photo storage
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 17:08:04 GMT -5
Here's a close up of VXX Daily chart If you look at indicators, they appear to be wanting to rollover bearish on daily time frame. See top circled area. Bottom circle is ADX w/DI lines and is already bearish. Over long run, we know VXX is headed down so what we have to watch out for in the short term is a spike in volatility. Other than VXX price action closing outside its lower BB today (and it needs to get back into its lower BB), I don't see any reason to believe that going forward in next few trading days, week or two for VXX will not go down further. Any small pops in VXX, I see as small moves / ripples and I don't see anything dangerous in this chart to concern me going forward. However, if VXX starts making complete candles outside its lower BBs, I would be concerned that a large spike is coming. But VXX will probably sell slowly tomorrow and gets within its lower BB but have to be watchful of those lower BBs. images upload
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 17:11:05 GMT -5
Now on VXX 15 min timeframe, eod it did put in a green hammer candle and has confirmation so VXX might be in for a small pop before rolling over again and indicators might cross bullish BUT keep in mind this is on 15 min timeframe And VXX hit my H&S target today of 16.20 range but that is a minimum target and doesn't mean it can't go lower still
VXX Hourly Hourly indicators still bearish and VXX is obviously still in downtrend - just a question of whether or not VXX bear flags in this area or puts in a small bounce. image hosting over 5mb
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Post by walnut on Mar 15, 2017 17:17:10 GMT -5
excellent VXX sure seems bearish to me still.
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 17:18:31 GMT -5
S&P cash chart S&P has been in a BULLISH UPTREND every since March '09 lows We have a confirmed large INVERSE H&S pattern that measures S&P2460ish target and until this target gets hit, the market is still in a BULL market Weekly, daily chart even looks like its consolidating for another leg higher S&P weekly chart free upload picturesS&P daily chart free picture upload
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 17:29:15 GMT -5
Now S&P 15 min chart Today's move broke the possible H&S pattern it was trying to form BUT the pattern never validated / confirmed. So today's massive move higher was a massive BEAR squeeze of BEARS who were watching this same pattern and jumped in too early with short positions and got squeezed like crazy We now have a confirmed double bottom target that measures around SP2400 along with S&P small inverse H&S pattern (at least can be viewed that way). The pattern isn't the cleanest but it is valid and in play (confirmed back test of neckline) Some would argue that its not an inverse H&S and that's ok. But I bet they would agree about confirmed double bottom. So, we now have confirmed bullish patterns that measure at SP 2400 area and that means market will retest all time highs in short term moving forward. We also have the main driver of price action being the large inverse H&S pattern that measures SP 2460ish as well. But, as always, its just a question of how we reach that SP 2460ish target and so far it looks like S&P is headed straight there without correcting / pulling back significantly before then. If that target gets hit without pulling back and back testing before then (and I believe it will), then it will be time to put on BEAR hat. IMO The markets rise is extremely steep and cannot be maintained forever. S&P also left behind GAPs and never backtested the breakout area at SP2300. So, S&P, at minimum, has a date some time in the future with 2300 BUT I believe the market will climb higher before then. All of this doesn't mean that we will go straight to that SP2460ish target, there will be of course small gyrations/ripples on the way up. S&P 15 min chart image upload no limit
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 17:33:33 GMT -5
Hope this helps
BBL
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Post by walnut on Mar 15, 2017 17:50:04 GMT -5
Sure sounds good to me
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 18:31:25 GMT -5
VXX 16.36 in AH Are you holding small position overnight? It's my usual trading style to close out position by AH close and will. I believe we will have plenty of chances tomorrow to reshort VXX in 16.30 range tomorrow if desired. Obviously, leaving on small VXX position going forward will be fine but I'm looking to scalp /daytrade and I like having full dtbp each day S&P futures definitely bull flagging as I type so might even get a gap down in VXX tomorrow I put in order to close out 5k VXX short @ 16.32, if it hits fine, if not will hold overnight.
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 18:58:35 GMT -5
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 19:00:18 GMT -5
Holding 5k short VXX overnight
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Post by walnut on Mar 15, 2017 19:02:54 GMT -5
I actually closed it out at 16.36. Kinda thinking it is up a few cents in the morning.
I just can't seem to stick to my plan of building a deep in the money swing trade.
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Post by theMist on Mar 15, 2017 19:05:45 GMT -5
I actually closed it out at 16.36. Kinda thinking it is up a few cents in the morning. I just can't seem to stick to my plan of building a deep in the money swing trade. There will be plenty of opportunities to reshort it tomorrow. I like closing out positions because I like having full DTBP going into trading day. Also, no overnight risk. Not that I see anything in charts to indicate any risk.
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