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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 16:01:15 GMT -5
For baby sitting this market all day I need to make money.. I made $3000 in the stone biz today and every day. If your making $3k in stone biz everyday that's AWESOME! Not easy to do in the markets on a daily basis.
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 16:02:35 GMT -5
Now I need a nice move down in AH for SCAMs
FB reporting and is up in AH
Have to be careful though -- that final hour for VXX put in a green hammer candle but obviously needs confirmation tomorrow morning and we still have those UPSIDE GAPs that still need filling.
Nearest one is VXX 20.32-20.50. That's what keeps me daytrading the SCAMs only.
let's see if they drop in AH
ttyl
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2017 16:10:03 GMT -5
meh I don't think the apocalypse is here yet. You are the best pure trader I ever knew Mist and I put a lot of weight on your opinions.
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 16:11:46 GMT -5
meh I don't think the apocalypse is here yet. You are the best pure trader I ever knew Mist and I put a lot of weight on your opinions. Thx Walnut I'll check in later -- gotta run
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2017 16:36:45 GMT -5
For baby sitting this market all day I need to make money.. I made $3000 in the stone biz today and every day. If your making $3k in stone biz everyday that's AWESOME! Not easy to do in the markets on a daily basis. OK not quite everyday but sometimes haha It is a pretty good business for sure But I want to retire and sell VXX
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2017 16:52:22 GMT -5
This is a drop in scams moment
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 18:07:48 GMT -5
This is a drop in scams moment You holding overnight? If so, how much? I'm closing out remaining in AH. Just my trading style and the way I personally protect against overnight black swans. Tomorrow is another day. BTW - quick look at S&P futures - I think we might see a little selling pressure overnight and going into tomorrow but nothing drastic but will take a closer look and study charts more closely later. I think we will get slightly better pricing to short SCAMs again tomorrow IMO. I don't see them gapping down again in premarket tomorrow and see them as possibly flat to slightly up going into tomorrow premarket -- but could be wrong. For me not worth the risk/reward of holding short SCAM position overnight. just my 2 cents
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2017 19:05:13 GMT -5
Right now still short 8000 VXX
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2017 19:12:15 GMT -5
I don't think VXX is going to 20 tonight or anything and might make a little by noon tomorrow but I see your point
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 19:55:01 GMT -5
We had the nice run going into close and then it reversed hard. Gotta watch it doesn't turn into a double bottom. And if you look at VIX chart, it tried dropping down hard and then rebounded hard VIX hit 9.97 and that's very low and by doing so it filled the downside gap. See chart below. Then rebounded hard with long bottom wick. Almost to say, its had enough. The last time VIX hit that low was in '07 With normal overnight trading, SCAMs should only be up slightly tomorrow and I'm not seeing anything drastic so far. But I'm thinking this could be the beginning of a short term pullback for S&P. We are overdue. The gap up to new highs (head fake) with island reversal and then today the quick move up to just satisfy the BREAKAWAY GAP and then the quick retreat back down as soon as it filled and at least S&P closed up only .68 and SCAMs were still down. Keep an eye on contango - it dropped down into 9% range now. Still no cause for alarm but if trend continues then you know what that means. SCAMs are also due to fill those upside GAPs. That's why I only stick to daytrading for now. It's safe. VIX dropped to 9.97 before closing at 11.81 VIX Monthly Chart VIX Daily
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 20:04:14 GMT -5
I don't think VXX is going to 20 tonight or anything and might make a little by noon tomorrow but I see your point I agree. I just believe we'll get better pricing tomorrow for reshorting for scalping again.
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2017 20:20:23 GMT -5
That will kinda suck if true haha I'm ready for some down hard scams
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 20:41:32 GMT -5
That will kinda suck if true haha I'm ready for some down hard scams You'll be safe going into tomorrow as long as no major event over night. Might have to suffer a little upside in SCAMs tomorrow before retreating that's all. I just don't think its a good time to be leaving on overnight short SCAM positions and I know 8k short VXX is a sizeable position for you from seeing your past trades. Just be very careful leaving positions on overnight going forward. Just words of caution. That's all. Not trying to make you nervous -- But one quick black swan is all it takes. We haven't had one in quite some time and we haven't had a real correction in quite some time. But looking at S&P charts, we are in an area of a lot of support and should be fine. I just don't find the risk/reward is worth it for leaving on short SCAM positions on overnight. I had a nice run down yesterday in SCAMs and saw that they were down in AH which made me call a gap down for today and I was right. I closed out my TVIX position at 5.38 yesterday in AH. Today's high for TVIX was 5.37! So was it really worth me leaving on a position overnight? And I came into today with full day trade buying power and unemotional and unbiased. And today's action can simply be tossed up as FOMC day and tomorrow can start the real move. IMO
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2017 21:43:31 GMT -5
I agree I don't want to be making it a habit. I'd probably better try to cut it out.
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2017 21:47:34 GMT -5
You know I honestly don't know how they calculate contango in the after hours? VIX is not live. The options market is closed. But it is showing 9.34 which I don't like much.
If anything, the contango should be higher now, because the futures have crept up and VIX should have stayed the same.
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 22:09:31 GMT -5
I agree I don't want to be making it a habit. I'd probably better try to cut it out. Especially when markets are at all time highs and volatility is really low. Vix hit 9.97 today before reversing. Did you see that move? Dow 20k was a headfake so far and my call to fill S&P breakaway gap was dead on and as soon as it filled S&P pulled back fast. So the move so far to new all time highs is being rejected. Long term I still have bullish targets but short term moves have been difficult to call. I've been taking it on a day by basis and have been lucky with my calls. Vix scams have to fill those upside gaps. The way the markets are trading it looks like it's never going to happen so the way it has to happen is with a real sharp pullback. Maybe small correction That red hollow hammer candle on S&P was followed by a dark solid filled green candle. You tend to see them at turning points. I also didn't like the quick move higher today only to take out the gap and then reversed real hard after filling. Move higher was rejected pretty hard. But it can simply be tossed up as fomc day. We'll see tomorrow what the real move will be But for tomorrow I see a slightly down bias in morning for SP. We are in area of a lot of support so can see slightly down to sideways action for next few days. IMO. Before getting a real pullback I believe now that we are very close to a pullback in my opinion. Red hollow hammer candle followed by green solid filled dark candle. Gap up headfake to Dow 20K and then island reversal. Then today's quick upside gap fill only to reverse hard. Sounds like short term top along with much needed upside scam gap fills So I think we are back to where we were prior to the gap up to Dow 20k headfake. Which is looking for a pullback before continuing higher in long term Just my opinion .
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 22:18:38 GMT -5
You know I honestly don't know how they calculate contango in the after hours? VIX is not live. The options market is closed. But it is showing 9.34 which I don't like much. If anything, the contango should be higher now, because the futures have crept up and VIX should have stayed the same. Somehow it's moving. I remember watching vix central thru election night into early morning. Went from contango to backwardation around midnight. Go figure? Lol Vixcentral now showing contango at 8.91% when I just checked just now. And now 9.64%.
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Post by huh on Feb 1, 2017 22:41:17 GMT -5
I'm way behind on reading today's posts here so sorry if this has already been mentioned, but AAPL filled it's last remaining upside gap today. If you recall, AAPL was the last & only stock that I had potential upside for, and now that's done.
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Post by huh on Feb 1, 2017 22:48:43 GMT -5
Oil futures (ticker CL in new futures charts) downside target 50.40's (H&S pattern on 15 min chart), and that'll likely setup a move down to low 46's (H&S on 30 min chart)
If I'm right there's a good chance it'll begin some gapping down moves
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Post by huh on Feb 1, 2017 22:56:53 GMT -5
VIX Futures (VX) could be setting up for a quick move to ~14.33, ~10+% higher than here
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