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Post by huh on Feb 1, 2017 7:56:22 GMT -5
10 things you need to know before the opening bell It's a Fed day. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep policy on hold at Wednesday's meeting, as Bloomberg's World Interest Rate Probability shows just a 14.5% chance that the Federal Reserve hikes its key rate 25 basis points. The decision will cross the wires at 2 p.m. ET. China's manufacturing sector continues to grow. China's manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.3 in January but remained comfortably above the 50.0 expansion/contraction line. New export orders climbed to 50.3, hitting their best level in more than a year. Brazil's unemployment is at a record high. The country's unemployment rate hit a record-high 12% in the fourth quarter of 2016, data released on Tuesday by the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics showed. Chinese agents abducted one of China's richest men from a Hong Kong hotel. Xiao Jianhua was abducted by "five or six plain-clothed Chinese public security agents" at his apartment in Hong Kong's Four Seasons hotel at 1 a.m. on the night before Chinese New Year, according to the Financial Times. Apple's revenue forecast misses. The tech giant earned $3.36 a share on revenue of $78.4 billion, both ahead of estimates. However, its revenue forecast was light, coming in at $51.5 billion to $53.5 billion, versus the Wall Street estimate of $53.8 billion. Deutsche Bank is working on a new bonus system for its top executives. Details of the new system remain sketchy, but the plan is said to be less complicated and more transparent, Reuters reports, citing the German newspaper Handelsblatt. Short sellers are piling into Tesla. Short interest in Tesla has surged to more than 35% of the float, or shares available to the public, as the stock has rallied nearly 20% this year. Stock markets around the world are up. Australia's ASX (+0.6%) led the way up overnight, and France's CAC (+1.2%) is out front in Europe. The S&P 500 is set to open higher by 0.4% near 2,284. Earnings reporting remains heavy. Altria and Anthem are among the companies reporting ahead of the opening bell, while Facebook and MetLife highlight the names releasing their quarterly results after markets close. US economic data is moderate. ADP Employment Change will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET before Markit manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing cross the wires at 9:45 a.m. ET and 10 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is higher by 2 basis points at 2.47%. www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-february-1-2017-2017-2
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Post by huh on Feb 1, 2017 7:57:07 GMT -5
10 things in tech you need to know today 1. Apple beat on the top and bottom lines of its Q1 results as sales of iPhone sales grew for the first time in a year. But the pick-up in the company’s business — which lifted Apple shares 2% in after-hours trading on Tuesday — may not prove as robust as some had hoped. 2. Peter Thiel became a New Zealand citizen without meeting any of the requirements. He gained citizenship in 2011 despite never having lived in the country. 3. Apple is considering legal action against Trump's immigration ban. Apple is also matching employees' donations to relief funds 2-to-1. 4. Samsung sent out invites for the unveiling of an unknown device. It doesn't look likes it's the Galaxy S8 smartphone. 5. Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg came out against President Trump's immigration ban. She wrote a post saying that the executive order defies "the heart and values that define the best of our nation." 6. Dara Khosrowshahi, the Iranian American CEO of travel company Expedia, believes the US will be seen as a "smaller nation" as a result of Trump's immigration ban. His comments were made in an internal company memo. 7. Facebook is building its own TV app to show longer videos. It will work with set-top boxes like the Apple TV. 8. The Apple TV is not selling well. It turns out at least one reason why Apple's "others" revenue was down was the Apple TV. 9. SoftBank is considering an investment of more than $1 billion in coworking space provider WeWork. The deal could be among the first from SoftBank's $100 billion technology fund, which was announced last October and is being described as the largest fund of its kind in the world. 10. Police picked up a nude jogger on Microsoft's campus. "When questioned, he stated 'he was trying to build up his immune system to fight the cold weather,'" writes Redmond Public Safety. www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-today-february-1-2017-2
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Post by huh on Feb 1, 2017 7:57:47 GMT -5
Frontrunning: February 1 Fed Unlikely to Make Its Next Rate Move Wednesday (WSJ) Conservative Gorsuch nominated to top court (Reuters) Gorsuch Is Critic of Legal Doctrine That Bolsters Executive Authority (WSJ) The 4 Rules That Will Explain Neil Gorsuch’s Confirmation Fight (Politico) Trump’s Yen Comments ‘Wide of the Mark,’ Says Japan FX Chief (Reuters) A barb at Germany puts Trump administration on collision course with EU (Reuters) Investors Pulled $4.4 Billion From Brevan Howard (WSJ) Specter of Global Trade War Rises as Trump Puts ‘America First’ (BBG) Trump’s Backers Want Action on Jobs, Taxes, Immigration (WSJ) Tesla's Model S Falls Short of Top Safety Rating Awarded to 42 Other Cars (BBG) Apple Breaks Losing Streak, as Sales of iPhone 7 Shine (WSJ) The Short Seller Who Crushed Valeant Has Picked His Next Target (BBG) Trump's go-to man Bannon takes hardline view on immigration (Reuters) Pentagon Probe of ISIS Intelligence Finds Reports Weren’t Skewed (WSJ) Army Corps Given Go-Ahead for Final Permit on Dakota Pipeline, Senator Says (WSJ) Britain's Brexit bill set to clear first legislative hurdle (Reuters) It’s Getting Harder to Keep the Barbarians at the Gate—and It’s This Guy’s Job (BBG) EU extends emergency border controls to tackle migration (Reuters) Ex-JPMorgan analyst largely cleared in U.S. of insider trading (Reuters) Endowment Gains Aren’t Enough for Schools Facing Rising Expenses (BBG) Russia says Trump should be more specific on Syria safe zones plan (Reuters) www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-01/frontrunning-february-1
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 8:53:35 GMT -5
BTW - there were no shares to short the SCAMs earlier from 6am-7am EST using Scottrade and obviously that looked like a good time to short some when VXX was trading around 19.17. I went back to bed. lol SCAMs should see new all time lows today. I'm hoping to average in a good short SCAM position and get a decent cost avg. I closed out my 18k TVIX short yesterday at 5.38 so I'm only missing an 18 cent move and if I had left some on the table I would have reduced it to around maybe 5-6k shares. So no real loss there. Can always make up for it real easily by shorting a ton today and I have full daytrade buying power. Also, I'm sure there were shares available with Scottrade around 7:10am EST when their trading desk gets in but I was just too tired to stay up. lol BTW - We also got the overnight move in futures we were looking for and we've gotten the projected move down in VXX. From earlier S&P thread - If anyone is awake, please check to see if TVIX, UVXY, VXX has gone hard to borrow between 6amEST - 7aEST with your broker. Using Scottrade here. Also, updated S&P Futures charts below, price action bumping up against rising resistance. Interesting to see if price action breaks out above rising resistance or rolls over. Also, S&P put in double bottom. Measured target around S&P2286ish on futures chart which points to breakout above resistance. Looks like we're in for possible short term rally. VXX trading at 19.17ish as I type. Should get a little better pricing for VXX in regular markets. If chasing at these levels in premarket, not a bad idea, however, keep in mind, VXX can possibly backtest the breakdown from yesterdays pivot VXX 19.39. So keep extra dry powder just in case. Sometimes FOMC announcements can produce wild swings. Regardless, IMO I see possibly VIX SCAMs retesting all time lows today IMO. What we don't want to see is hard selling in S&P after the announcement and a solid red close below yesterdays S&P close. I don't think so and I think markets are pricing in at least 3 rate hikes this year. If anyone can check futures to see how much of a rate hike is priced in for today, please let us know. Charts looking bullish for short term and possibly we get an upside BREAKAWAY GAP fill this week. Many thanks Rob- S&P Futures updated - we're going up in short term according to charts - possibly a upside S&P breakaway gap fill
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2017 8:59:24 GMT -5
Sorry I've been sleeping in later than usual. I will try to remember to get up tomorrow and look earlier.
I believe that IB had both UVXY and TVIX this morning, they did an hour ago
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2017 9:01:42 GMT -5
Market pretty calm, this FOMC day may be a dud. If they DO raise rates, I don't want to be short the scams
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 9:08:12 GMT -5
Market pretty calm, this FOMC day may be a dud. If they DO raise rates, I don't want to be short the scams Ye of little faith -- Oh why do we doubt?! lol You should be all in short VXX on daytrade buying power. lmao just kidding. But when I think about it, it's probably a fantastic trade for today. roflmao now. VXX currently at 19.03 and headed lower IMO according to charts. But I can't blame you with FOMC market on tap - they can move markets.
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 9:23:52 GMT -5
Chasing a little TVIX short in premarket - keeping it small - keeping in mind FOMC on tap and could possibly get better pricing. I'm trusting the charts right now. So far I only missed a 17 cent gap opening gap down move in TVIX - no biggie.
Need TVIX to reverse split soon (could drop under $5) or else will have to use UVXY and I love the way TVIX trades over UVXY but oh well...
Short 5K TVIX 5.21 - told you I was good at chasing... lol
shucks only got 3228 short TVIX - order didn't fill all the way and premarket hours cutoff now
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2017 9:26:15 GMT -5
Yeah scams seem like they want to drop lower and pretty fast, need to be selling some now I think
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 9:28:19 GMT -5
Yeah scams seem like they want to drop lower and pretty fast, need to be selling some now I think Nibbling for now and IMO have to leave dry powder going into FOMC just in case Do you know what futures are pricing in for a rate hike today? Could turn out to be non-event
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2017 9:30:59 GMT -5
i don't know. If the market were concerned we would already know by now. Think this is not a big deal this time.
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 9:32:56 GMT -5
10k tvix short now -- will hold at that for now unless get little better pricing but don't know if we will get My projected move in VXX measures at new all time lows. Measures 18.70s From yesterday -- so far so good VXX chart
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Post by Herceg on Feb 1, 2017 9:33:41 GMT -5
OKS on watch with AAPL..........
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2017 9:35:45 GMT -5
Might have already seen hOD on scams
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 9:36:31 GMT -5
My Double bottom target on eminis just about almost hit - so far missed by 1 handle - SP2285 needs SP 2286 lol but close enough
Remember - not going to be able to short TVIX under $5 and looks like it has more run to run to downside for today looking at Daily BB
15K 18K short TVIX now - I hate chasing but think they keep dropping like a brick -- will watch very closely especially knowing FOMC on tap
not adding anymore for now and keeping lot of dry powder
Remember VXX target is in 18.70s
contango at 11-12% as I type
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Post by clinton on Feb 1, 2017 9:36:58 GMT -5
LONG TZA 18.86 it worked last time lets try it again
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Post by clinton on Feb 1, 2017 9:45:16 GMT -5
LONG PBI 14.12 this is a bouncer
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 9:47:02 GMT -5
S&P Hourly
S&P should blast through that resistance and take out that GAP...IMO
contango now at 12% -- have to trade by what I see and I know things can change but there honeslty seems to be no fear of the FED today
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 9:51:39 GMT -5
Fstockcharts freaking out on me again -- what is today's HOD in S&P? Dont trust my S&P cash chart from earlier. Just deleted it. Did it fill the breakaway gap to SP2289?? If it did fill then have to be careful. Anyone? I'm going to have to pay for premium service fstockcharts no biggie just few bucks. I think the ad blasting is causing problems
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Post by theMist on Feb 1, 2017 9:55:03 GMT -5
Huh or anyone -- can you throw up a S&P Hourly cash chart??? Would appreciate it. For comparison purposes. Not sure if my chart is correct. If so looks to be consolidating for move higher. As long as S&P consolidates or rises and doesn't selloff, SCAMs will continue to grind lower, especially with contango at 12%. Like Walnut said, HOD for SCAMs might be in for today Pullback looks to be backtesting the break out to upside. I have HOD for S&P 2289.14 and appears to be a BREAKAWAY GAP fill. So far so good with the Calls. SCAMs should continue to drop IMO TVIX currently at 5.18. 20k short TVIX now
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