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Post by clinton on Jun 6, 2013 15:35:46 GMT -5
With interest rate fears subsiding until at least 8:30 tomorrow morning, mREITs (MORT +1.9%) get a breather. Leading higher were American Capital (AGNC +3.4%), (MTGE +1.1%), Chimera (CIM +2.7%), Hatteras (HTS +2.4%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.9%), Javelin (JMI +4.7%), and Annaly (NLY +1.9%). One theme from conference presentations this week: Most have taken advantage of widening spreads to buy - if rates come in, they're set to profit.
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Post by yjfang on Jun 6, 2013 20:44:25 GMT -5
The CEO of ARR was recently quoted in a Bloomberg interview that this isn't a tough period for them. A forum member on the yahoo ARR message boards and also on the Seeking Alpha article put out by Corvette Kid claims to have spoken to IR a couple of days and was told "emphatically" that stock is way oversold and that things were fine.
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Post by clinton on Jun 6, 2013 20:53:00 GMT -5
someones loading up on calls too HIGH CALL VOLU $TSRA 3750% $PBF 1373% $LQD 1205% $SJM 904% $ARR 788%
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Post by clinton on Jun 8, 2013 12:25:03 GMT -5
some of these divs are down right crazy high
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Post by clinton on Jun 9, 2013 11:24:37 GMT -5
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Post by clinton on Jun 10, 2013 18:15:45 GMT -5
How bad is REITland? not too bad cuz CYS just INCREASED their div by 2 cents
CYS Investments (CYS) declares $0.34/share quarterly dividend. Forward yield 13.3% For shareholders of record June 25.Payable July 17. Ex-div date June 21. (PR)
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Post by yjfang on Jun 10, 2013 19:12:56 GMT -5
I read that Clinton. Welcoming news!
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Post by yjfang on Jun 11, 2013 21:44:46 GMT -5
It feels like the world hates the entire mREITs sector and to varying degrees, anything that have direct relationship to interest rates. I hope this means the bottom is near.
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Post by yjfang on Jun 11, 2013 21:46:41 GMT -5
Someone on the ARR forum claims that during the KBW conference last week, Zimmer said that ARR's book value was around $6.30-6.40, vs. today's $4.76 close. Absolutely ridiculous. Also they released a monthly update yesterday and it didn't look that bad.
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Post by yjfang on Jun 12, 2013 16:31:56 GMT -5
Well...I regret to inform you that I have dumped all of the ARR shares owned. I did not lose conviction in ARR but I fear that the market correction is here and ARR will just get pounded some more. Took a 30% loss and feeling like crap.
I will probably tactically trade UPRO to make up the losses, when the market correction ends.
(Have said the above, watch ARR rebound later this week.)
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Post by clinton on Jun 12, 2013 16:36:16 GMT -5
Well...I regret to inform you that I have dumped all of the ARR shares owned. I did not lose conviction in ARR but I fear that the market correction is here and ARR will just get pounded some more. Took a 30% loss and feeling like crap. I will probably tactically trade UPRO to make up the losses, when the market correction ends. (Have said the above, watch ARR rebound later this week.) sorry for the 30% hit. I know how that feels. I planned on keeping mine for a long time so Ill just ride it out. from what Ive read as interest rates rise so do the spreads, so at some point as the old paper loses money the new paper will be more profitable. may take a year or two but I bought mine for retirement so Ill suffer on. :sigh:
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Post by yjfang on Jun 12, 2013 17:18:33 GMT -5
Currently with short term rates near zero and the long term rates increasing, the yield curve steepens resulting in higher net interest margin and more dividends for shareholders. If you look at 6/10/13 update from ARR, you will see that their overall portfolio Duration is around mid 5 and with the hedges in place, net duration is closer to 1.5. This means that as rates rise, the drop in bond value will be offset by interest income payments, i.e., your breakeven point assuming nothing else changes, will take about 1.5 years. It also means that for every 1% change in interest rates the portfolio would change by 1.5% (net of hedges), multiplied by the leverage factor I think just under 8 for ARR.
ARR is trading significantly below book value and looks very attractive. I am just not sure why it's getting so disrespected. I will probably put some of the cash back to work in mREITs using REM (just for diversification).
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Post by clinton on Jun 12, 2013 21:03:35 GMT -5
Gary Kain from AGNC We are bullish on our outlook for Agency MBS over the next three to 12 months. Now that said, investors should clearly expect significant volatility over at least the near term. So why are we bullish? MBS spreads have widened to levels relatively consistent with historical averages despite ongoing Fed purchases and the almost 25% of the Agency MBS market that is now held by the Fed. Furthermore, even if the Fed begins gradually tapering purchases in September and stops QE3 related purchases by the end of Q1, 2014 as some observers are certainly predicting, they’re still likely to purchase between $350 billion and $450 billion of additional MBS over that timeframe.
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Post by clinton on Jun 13, 2013 6:53:52 GMT -5
No Cut - Fuck Ya - good sign Armour Residential (ARR) holds its $0.07 monthly dividend next 3 months
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Post by jacksrbtr on Jun 13, 2013 7:36:39 GMT -5
No Cut - Fuck Ya - good sign Armour Residential (ARR) holds its $0.07 monthly dividend next 3 months An older gent (hes now 91) down the block from me who had a career with 3M and who had several real estate properties on the side told me last night he owned two whore house properties at one time. I liked the guy before this now I like him even more!
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Post by clinton on Jun 13, 2013 8:55:42 GMT -5
ARR +4% and looking squeezy
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Post by clinton on Jun 15, 2013 9:48:22 GMT -5
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Post by clinton on Jun 16, 2013 12:28:09 GMT -5
ARR nothing BUT insider buying all year Attachments:
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Post by clinton on Jun 22, 2013 11:23:57 GMT -5
getting crazy 5% div per quarter, that means free in 20 quarters
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Post by clinton on Jun 28, 2013 7:57:49 GMT -5
so ARR pays out the div on Sunday. never noticed them paying on a sunday before
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