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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 11:40:00 GMT -5
Can you explain to me how contango is at 14%? lol And VIX, VIX futures are up WOW! Just noticed something As soon as March contract expires, next month currently around 4.78% Vixcentral img
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Post by walnut on Feb 24, 2017 11:43:19 GMT -5
I will say this. When that VIX term curve gets in any way "squiggly", that is a possible first sign. and it is a little
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 11:44:25 GMT -5
Looking at VixCentral -- looks like next few weeks into March is going to be rough
especially when that big fat juicy march contract is out of the way
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Post by walnut on Feb 24, 2017 11:52:08 GMT -5
All I know for sure is, they are buying VXX outright at a faster rate than they are buying options, so far.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 24, 2017 12:02:23 GMT -5
Good morning! Thanks Rob, I might register eventually. I'm too lazy to bother with it right now. Tvix rallied 28% off the low at the high today. That's a pretty big move and would coincide with prior spikes on this thing. I'm not really growing too optimistic about the market yet though.
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 12:03:19 GMT -5
All I know for sure is, they are buying VXX outright at a faster rate than they are buying options, so far. Yeah, but I thought VXX, TVIX, UVXY weren't supply and demand driven. According to six fugure investing it isn't and that's why they don't believe TA is useful with VIX SCAMs. Obviously, I don't buy into it. I think by now we've proven that wrong. VXX is definitely following patterns some how, some way. Channels are support and resistance, and how would you explain all the bounces off of BBs, moving averages, etc. etc...
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 12:07:02 GMT -5
VXX tags 20dsma (currently 18.38) and that's a good spot to cover short if scalping for today BUT could possibly flash red real quick and close morning gap up to VXX 18.28 and could quickly bounce and rise back up over the 20dsma at VXX 18.38
We'll see...
Definitely a traders market and needs to take profits quickly
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Post by walnut on Feb 24, 2017 12:12:59 GMT -5
I've been thinking about this- who buys VIX futures, especially with their .05 spreads.... I am thinking that VXX LEADS the futures. VXX repositioning drives VIX futures prices. That's what I have decided. All I know for sure is, they are buying VXX outright at a faster rate than they are buying options, so far. Yeah, but I thought VXX, TVIX, UVXY weren't supply and demand driven. According to six fugure investing it isn't and that's why they don't believe TA is useful with VIX SCAMs. Obviously, I don't buy into it. I think by now we've proven that wrong. VXX is definitely following patterns some how, some way. Channels are support and resistance, and how would you explain all the bounces off of BBs, moving averages, etc. etc...
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 12:13:33 GMT -5
Good morning! Thanks Rob, I might register eventually. I'm too lazy to bother with it right now. Tvix rallied 28% off the low at the high today. That's a pretty big move and would coincide with prior spikes on this thing. I'm not really growing too optimistic about the market yet though. You mean the TVIX all time low of $4 to today's HOD of $5.18? I get about roughly 23% off the all time low Is that what your referring to? A 38% fib retracement off the all time low would peg TVIX around 4.73ish; 50% fib retracement at 4.60ish
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 24, 2017 12:16:14 GMT -5
oh yeah. that's the one. divided that upside down. sorry.
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Post by walnut on Feb 24, 2017 12:17:05 GMT -5
It's almost like the VIX futures months are a hypothetical construct. Who messes with them? Even more so, VIX index options- very weird securities.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 24, 2017 12:20:02 GMT -5
Yeah, must be some random people on message boards that trade those Walnut. haha.
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Post by walnut on Feb 24, 2017 12:20:44 GMT -5
I have before myself, to no effect, ever, haha
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Post by walnut on Feb 24, 2017 12:22:35 GMT -5
Look at the VIX index options.. look at the puts specifically. To maintain put-call parity, they have to be worth the inverse to the calls. But VIX returns are a non normal distribution. So stare at a VIX index option chain and you will begin to see that something is wrong.
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Post by walnut on Feb 24, 2017 12:42:04 GMT -5
Here is what I mean- since put call parity is impossible to maintain for VIX index options due to the nature of the VIX index, they have to make up for it with gigantic bid ask spreads. 41% bid ask spreads? who would trade those. So, see what I mean? a puzzling and apparently pointless security.
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 12:52:39 GMT -5
And that's why shorting VIX SCAMs is such a forgiving trade.
I know its easy said in hindsight but when I sold my long TVIX, should have shorted it.
But definitely wouldn't short it while they are red now
as a matter fact bought a little again while its red right now.
quick scalps only and taking profits quickly
now need S&P to rollover and take another leg down
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Post by walnut on Feb 24, 2017 12:53:23 GMT -5
Not to beat a dead horse, but: If they did not widen those spreads, you could take advantage of VIX non-normal returns distribution by selling calls and buying the puts, creating a synthetic VIX to hedge VXX and any other of the scams.
But, the market makers are obviously on to this angle too, so the monthly options actually mirror the same month's VIX futures rather than the VIX index for their underlying. So, the VIX options make even LESS sense, since it certainly always works better to just trade the futures than those crazy options.
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 13:09:09 GMT -5
VXX still putting in higher highs and higher lows. Still counter-trending out of steep descending channel its been in.
Lots of good trading opportunities.
VXX 18.25
Also, S&P has started putting in lower highs
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Post by walnut on Feb 24, 2017 13:09:24 GMT -5
75 cent move down from premarket
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 13:11:05 GMT -5
75 cent move down from premarket That was definitely the time to short them. And going forward, we should be looking for opps like today and refrain from chasing them short while they are down a lot. I'm up on the day 2-3k so I'm happy to be back on the right side of the trade. Just have to watch they don't hit the sell button again in S&P for me it would be good since I took a small tvix long position again but will jettison out if I see them drop even more. Looking at vix futures, they could be leaving the selloff / pullback for March After I sold TVIX long - I got out 15k and left 5k on -- I definitely should have shorted TVIX
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