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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 24, 2017 10:09:09 GMT -5
themist, I'm really impressed you bought tvix like you did. I thought it would go up but i knew i wouldn't be able to sleep all night if i did. I have actually bought tvix in the past when the market was in a decisive down trend and managed to actually make 100%. That was i think during the european debt crisis. There was also clear backwardization so i wouldn't really think of doing what you did. It worked out though. so congrats.
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 10:09:26 GMT -5
I've totally adjusted my trading approach with VIX SCAMs now. I"m looking to trade them from the long side for scalps instead of looking to short them. So far so good.
BUT VXX, UVXY, TVIX, rises up to fill some much needed gap fills and then I will switch to looking to short them again.
Up 6k today so feeling better
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 24, 2017 10:11:53 GMT -5
I supported Ted Cruz all the way up through the primaries. I threw in the towel finally when it was clear he was campaigning on more conservative issues. I'm now very happy with 99% of everything he's doing. haha.
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 10:13:39 GMT -5
themist, I'm really impressed you bought tvix like you did. I thought it would go up but i knew i wouldn't be able to sleep all night if i did. I have actually bought tvix in the past when the market was in a decisive down trend and managed to actually make 100%. That was i think during the european debt crisis. There was also clear backwardization so i wouldn't really think of doing what you did. It worked out though. so congrats. Thx LasVegas. My real name is Rob BTW or you can simply call me Mist. Trust me its not very often that I look to go long them and we always look to short them. I'm sure you are well aware of how TVIX ETN is structured with all the warnings regarding buying and holding for long term. lol But I'm thinking these VIX ETPs will rise up to at least fill some much needed GAPs that they left behind. Did you check out the other threads? "VXX - Minding the GAPs, Bollinger Bands" as well as "VIX, VIX ETPs, and More" You'll see how I've been able to nail some really good calls using the GAP theory.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 24, 2017 10:14:13 GMT -5
Back in October when there was that mini spike on tvix, I was heavily short and got a margin call on that while I was on vacation in Hawaii. You know what it's like taking a call from fidelity at 4am local time when trying to enjoy a trip? haha. it was not pretty.
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 10:15:42 GMT -5
VIX ETPs are strong still
I maintain VXX double bottom target of VXX low 20s BUT it definitely won't be without wild swings
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 24, 2017 10:17:20 GMT -5
I kinda glanced through the other threads but didn't really get a chance to look too thoroughly. Maybe when i go out for coffee sometime i can read through it. haha. Anyways, I'm probably done for today and going to go back to bed. I'm on the leftcoast here in Los Angeles so it's only 7am for me.
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 10:17:47 GMT -5
Back in October when there was that mini spike on tvix, I was heavily short and got a margin call on that while I was on vacation in Hawaii. You know what it's like taking a call from fidelity at 4am local time when trying to enjoy a trip? haha. it was not pretty. That's one of the reasons why I never leave on a short VIX SCAM position on overnight. They can skyrocket overnight as you know. I'm actually more comfortable leaving on a long TVIX position on overnight but will full knowledge that its temporary. Definitely not a long term buy and hold strategy UNLESS we enter a BEAR Market which heavy prolonged backwardation. Walnut is a master at trading options and we've looked into all sorts of hedging schemes and have not come up with any that are advantageous.
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Post by clinton on Feb 24, 2017 10:20:25 GMT -5
Im watching JCP for a long bounce play
watching
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 24, 2017 10:20:37 GMT -5
I know what you mean themist. But if you are able to short heavily near the top of a spike, you are usually in the clear pretty quickly. The problem arises if you are too leveraged overnight. Honestly, my biggest gains are long term shorts in stead of these scalps. The scalps add up but I prefer shorting a big spike long term and holding.
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Post by walnut on Feb 24, 2017 10:20:56 GMT -5
You know a surprisingly effective "hedge" for the VIX scams? Lighten up your position sizes some. You won't sweat these pullbacks much and you will still make excellent annual returns. That applies more to sell and hold swing trading, not day trading.
Lighten up position size is the only affordable VXX hedge that I have found.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 24, 2017 10:24:33 GMT -5
that's true walnut. Good point. I now have a self control method. I leave a huge balance in a checking account somewhere else to be able to withstand a margin call if necessary. I've utilized this before so that i can't overleverage too much because i don't have trading access to it immediately. I was able to actually hold a margin call last month because i transferred the funds when i had to and then took it out when cleared. It doesn't matter that it's making 0% interest to me because I am able to get much more bang for my buck when i need those funds the same day.
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Post by walnut on Feb 24, 2017 10:27:43 GMT -5
I bet that was an uncomfortable day that's true walnut. Good point. I now have a self control method. I leave a huge balance in a checking account somewhere else to be able to withstand a margin call if necessary. I've utilized this before so that i can't overleverage too much because i don't have trading access to it immediately. I was able to actually hold a margin call last month because i transferred the funds when i had to and then took it out when cleared. It doesn't matter that it's making 0% interest to me because I am able to get much more bang for my buck when i need those funds the same day.
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 10:27:59 GMT -5
I know what you mean themist. But if you are able to short heavily near the top of a spike, you are usually in the clear pretty quickly. The problem arises if you are too leveraged overnight. Honestly, my biggest gains are long term shorts in stead of these scalps. The scalps add up but I prefer shorting a big spike long term and holding. It's been the opposite for me. Shorting the spikes with heavy leverage and on DTBP. I've been fortunate enough to have done very well. I don't like holding positions on overnight and if I did it would be a real small position that I could still sleep at night. But even doing that, I have found that it isn't worth it simply because with the way VIX ETPs swing, you can usually (not all the time) just simply put the same exact trade back on the next day and now I'm not biased coming into the trading day and not emotional if trade went against me overnight. Or if I missed an overnight gap down in TVIX, I would simply chase with a very heavy leveraged trade. Assuming, I still see TVIX dropping further of course.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 24, 2017 10:29:57 GMT -5
themist, I agree that is a good strategy overall. However, often times the next day tvix will be down at the open already 1-3% before falling further. So when you put on a new position you are getting a worse price. So there's some tradeoff.
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Post by walnut on Feb 24, 2017 10:30:32 GMT -5
It seems like it can work favorably either way.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 24, 2017 10:31:46 GMT -5
My biggest gains came from heavily shorting bets on tvix holding overnight long term and covering weeks later.
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 10:31:54 GMT -5
themist, I agree that is a good strategy overall. However, often times the next day tvix will be down at the open already 1-3% before falling further. So when you put on a new position you are getting a worse price. So there's some tradeoff. I agree but if I held a position overnight I would only feel comfortable with say short 5k TVIX at these prices. If I miss a gap down like you say, I can quicklky make up for it by shorting 50K TVIX. Again, assuming I see it getting crushed down further and not bouncing. We've done very well using this approach.
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Post by theMist on Feb 24, 2017 10:32:55 GMT -5
My biggest gains came from heavily shorting bets on tvix holding overnight long term and covering weeks later. The only problem is you leave yourself highly vulnerable and if we got a black swan, it could end your trading career real fast.
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Post by walnut on Feb 24, 2017 10:35:42 GMT -5
Me and Rob have had this conversation 20 times haha
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