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Post by huh on Aug 10, 2016 6:44:22 GMT -5
10 things you need to know before the opening bell Brazil's president is headed to trial. In a 59-21 vote, Brazil's Senate voted to indict President Dilma Rousseff on charges of breaking budget laws. The outcome means Rousseff will face an impeachment trial, most likely at the end of the month, in which a two-thirds vote will be needed for her conviction, Reuters reports. The UK economy is slowing down after the Brexit vote. That's according to the latest numbers from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which shows growth in the UK was 0.3% in the three months up to the end of July, compared with 0.6% growth in the three months to the end of June. The UK's vote to leave the European Union was held June 23. Norway could block Brexit. Norway's European affairs minister, Elisabeth Vik Aspaker, said her government could block the UK from trying to rejoin the single market, as it's not in her country's best interest. Vik Aspaker suggested that letting the UK join the European Free Trade Association would "shift the balance" and would force Norway to renegotiate a bunch of trade agreements. Japan's core machinery orders rise for the first time in 3 months. Orders rose a seasonally adjusted 8.3% month-over-month in June, easily surpassing the 3.4% gain that economists had forecast. Despite the big jump, the government says the sector remained "at a standstill." The Japanese yen is stronger by 0.6% at 101.26 per dollar. Disney topped estimates. The entertainment giant earned an adjusted $1.62 a share on revenue of $14.3 billion. Disney announced it bought $1 billion minority stake in BAMTech, a video-streaming company previously formed by Major League Baseball. CEO Bob Iger says the acquisition will help bring the sports network's content over the top on the internet. Yelp posted a surprise profit. The online review aggregator earned an adjusted $0.01 a share, easily beating the $0.07 loss that analysts were expecting. Revenue of $173.4 million topped the $169.8 million that was anticipated. "We had a great second quarter with local revenue growth accelerating to 41% year over year," Yelp CEO Jeremy Stoppelman said in the earnings release. SolarCity's loss widened. The company lost $0.56 a share, more than double the $0.23 loss from a year ago. Taking into account onetime adjustments, non-GAAP, SolarCity's loss grew to $2.32, but that was ahead of the $2.44 loss that analysts were expecting. Revenue surged 81% to $185.8 million, easily beating the Wall Street consensus of $146 million. Stock markets around the world are mostly lower. China's Shanghai Composite (-0.2%) led the losses in Asia, and Germany's DAX (-0.5%) paces the decline in Europe. S&P 500 futures are up 1.50 points at 2,179.00. Earnings reporting slows. Michael Kors, Ralph Lauren, and Wendy's Co. report ahead of the opening bell, and Shake Shack releases its quarterly results after markets close. US economic data is light. JOLTs Job Openings will be released at 10 a.m. ET, and crude-oil inventories will cross the wires at 10:30 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is down 1 basis point at 1.54%. www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-august-10-2016-2016-8
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Post by huh on Aug 10, 2016 6:45:25 GMT -5
10 things in tech you need to know today 1. Intel has bought a two-year old machine learning startup called Nervana Systems, a move aimed at expanding its data center business. Intel declined to share the financial details of the deal, but Recode reports it paid "at least $350 million," citing an anonymous source. 2. The US government is selling 2,700 bitcoin, valued at nearly $1.6 million based on current exchange rates. The seized bitcoins will be auctioned on August 22. 3. Facebook is taking a stand against ad blockers. The social network announced on Tuesday that it has tweaked its tech to prevent ad blocking software from working on its desktop site. 4. The future of a crucial source of UK startup money hangs in the balance following the nation's decision to leave the European Union. That source is the relatively unknown European Investment Fund (EIF), which invested over €2.3 billion ($2.6 billion) in UK startups between 2011 and 2015. 5. Netflix has launched an app that shows you how fast your internet really is. Netflix's pitch is that its tool is "ad free with a streamlined design that is quick and easy to understand." 6. Startup factory Entrepreneur First has set up an investment team to help founders on its programme to raise money from the world's most reputable investors. The company builder has produced several impressive startups over the last few years, including Magic Pony Technology which was acquired by Twitter for a reported $150 million. 7. Google put the nail in Adobe Flash's coffin. The company will "de-emphasize" Adobe Flash in its Chrome browser and by December, Adobe Flash will no longer be turned on by default in Chrome. 8. Researchers have found a highly sophisticated malware called "Sauron". The five-year-old piece of malware has been secretly targeting governments, militaries, telecoms companies, and scientific research centers. 9. Russian hackers appear to have infiltrated up to 330,000 computer cash registers. The registers were sold by Oracle. 10. Job site Monster has been snapped up by Dutch recruiter Randstad Holdings for $429 million. It works out to $3.40 per share. www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-today-august-10-2016-8
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Post by huh on Aug 10, 2016 6:46:02 GMT -5
Frontrunning: August 10 World stocks hit one-year peak, dollar sags on weak U.S. data (Reuters) Trump's remarks on gun rights, Clinton unleash torrent of criticism (Reuters) Newly Released Emails Highlight Clinton Foundation’s Ties to State Department (WSJ) One-in-five U.S. Republicans want Trump to drop out: Reuters/Ipsos poll (Reuters) Soaring Debt Has U.S. Companies as Vulnerable to Default as 2008 (BBG) BOJ to defend QQE in Sept policy assessment (Reuters) China’s Central Bank Plans Push to Increase Yuan’s Global Usage (BBG) Tipsters Are Poised for Big Payouts (WSJ) Nomura ‘Lost Control’ in Firing Salesman Over $40 Million Loss (BBG) In recovering housing market, the starter home remains elusive (Reuters) Palladium at Year High, Driving Precious Metals on Chinese Cars (BBG) U.S. women dominate to win second straight team gold (NBC) Games bus hit by gunfire, no one seriously hurt: witnesses (Reuters) For Oil Companies $110 Billion Debt Wall Looms Over Next 5 Years (BBG) Egypt closes 48 forex bureaus in black market crackdown (Reuters) Vietnam moves new rocket launchers into disputed S.China Sea (Reuters) Pimco Total Return Boosts Treasuries Stake to Most in 25 Months (BBG) Out of sight, out of mind? Europe's migrant crisis still simmers (Reuters) Eurostar U.K. Union to Strike for Seven Days Over Schedules (BBG) House Speaker Ryan easily wins primary: media (Reuters) WikiLeaks offers $20K for info on DNC staffer's killing (Hill) Brazil's Senate indicts Rousseff, opens impeachment trial (Reuters) www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-10/frontrunning-august-10
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Post by clinton on Aug 10, 2016 7:49:52 GMT -5
Mike Swanson: Gold is up this morning and is going to keep going up, but I have something else to show you today. You see something is happening with the S&P 500, DOW, and Nasdaq that I have never seen before and I do not think anyone else has ever seen before either.
And what is crazy is no one is talking about it.
Yahoo Finance isn't.
And Michael Santoli (the CNBC guy who drinks coffee all day and supervises market commentary and rants on twitter) just tweeted that he is on vacation.
And Jim Cramer didn't say a word about it last night - NOT ONE.
So CNBC viewers have no clue to what is about to happen and have fallen asleep at the wheel again.
This email has images in it so if you don't see the images hit the image approval link your email provider has for this email. If you use gmail hit always approve images.
So take a look at this chart of the S&P 500 and the 20-day Bollinger Bands.
What Bollinger Bands measure are the real price volatility in a chart. A big move in price makes the Bollinger Bands go wide apart from one another, but when the moves get small and the daily moves get consistently smaller than the Bollinger Bands get closer together.
Periods of such low volatility lead to periods of high volatility.
This can happen when a market pauses for a few weeks after a big rally before another big rally begins or at a market top.
Last year in August the Bollinger Band width indicator for the 20-day Bollinger Bands fell below 2.5.
It had only gotten that low three times in all of the years I have been trading the markets and suggests that a big move was about to start that would shock people.
And so the market fell in a flash crap drop that did smash a lot of people.
I actually warned a big drop was about to happen and unfortunately I also knew people that were on margin who refused to pair their positions.
At least one of these people no longer trades the markets anymore.
He got wiped out.
That's how serious it is when the Bollinger Bands get this narrow.
So yesterday the Bollinger Band width indicator got below 1.50.
This is probably the lowest reading in decades.
My data on stockcharts goes back to the mid 1990's and I can't find a reading for the S&P 500 this low.
What does this mean?
For one thing everyone is bullish on the market and many people are predicting a giant rally to start now that will go into the end of the year.
If you are watching CNBC you are seeing these predictions.
If these people are right the market needs to start to go up in a big way NOW.
And it needs to rally huge into Labor Day.
If the market does not do that then what we are witnessing is a big top much like the way gold stocks topped out in 2011.
If you were following mining stocks back then they were in a giant range that year marked by low volatility and whenever they made a new high they would just go up a few percent and then top out and fall again until they finally collapsed.
Breakouts simply led to nowhere.
And there were warning signs that it was a massive top that Jordon Roy-Byrne, Dave Skarica, and myself all pointed out in 2011.
Such as the fact that silver doubled in a few months and the silver mining stocks did not follow.
And now the internals in the stock market are weakening this month and weakened yesterday.
But just like the silver bugs ignored the danger signs of 2011 all stock market bubble bulls refuse to acknowledge today's warning signs.
Fake breakouts were the name of the game for gold and silver stocks in 2011.
And the same thing happened with the stock market over and over again in 2015.
And really this is the first new high the market has made in almost two years and it hasn't gone anywhere yet.
The market may just start to dump before the week is over like it did last August.
Or it could just drift a little more into the end of the month and then go down.
You cannot predict exactly what will happen, but the important point is that if the bulls do not generate a strong rally soon then it will be a sign that the big rally that began in February is finished just like all the ones before led to nothing but a drop back down.
People who are fully invested in the market would have to reduce risks and their exposure to stocks.
People on margin MUST GET off of it!
Of course people diversified and not simply owning only the S&P 500 and mainstream Wall Street funds that own gold and mining stocks can smile.
Money is being made now in gold and gold stocks. They were up again yesterday and up this morning again and are the hottest things now in the world markets. No one can doubt the power of gold except the most foolish of the foolish.
Gold stocks made me more money yesterday. Hopefully they did the same for you. If not then you need to buy!
The problem is no matter how much I have done to get the word out on the metals and gold mining stocks very few Americans own any of them at all, because CNBC and Jim Cramer doesn't talk about them and so people are scared to buy without their permission.
And that is what I worry about.
So you must watch the stock market carefully here. Do not fall asleep.
What the market is doing right now with the Bollinger Bands is something I have never seen before and no one else has either.
We are on the edge of something big starting.
It's like a glacier and we just heard a cracking sound.
Will it just dump or do the bulls have a few moments of fun for a few weeks first?
Well, you can't take your eye off the ball and you gotta stay alert to know.
It's like the old Kenny Rogers song.
Sometimes you gotta know when it is time to cash in.
For goodness sakes if you own Apple sell it, because it has been a dead stock for over year now and is not going to go anywhere for you! Sell it and move that money in gold and reduce your risks and make money!
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Post by dino on Aug 10, 2016 8:25:19 GMT -5
Oil ($SPGSCLP) hit the bottom of it's up channel this morning pre-market. Missed a good UWTI entry. Grrr... BAck in UWTI 20.10 Out 20.32. Oil dropped last night and then rallied. Looks like the channel is morphing. Smaller time frame (30 min). Also... ES has an H&S forming the right shoulder now. It could squeeze at the open, or head lower on volume which would drop us to ~2063. Going to watch for now.
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Post by dino on Aug 10, 2016 8:27:31 GMT -5
Overall trend for oil on larger time frames is till up - just attempting swings here.
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Post by walnut on Aug 10, 2016 9:01:39 GMT -5
Studying on the futures transactions called EFP's (exchange for physical). Right now I see that you could lock in a 3% return for one year, with gold futures and using GLD as a proxy for your physical. The only catch I can think of is if gold goes up a lot, and your short future starts losing much, it will be marked to the market and the broker will reduce your cash, even though your account equity should remain constant as your long GLD goes up at the same exact rate.
I have a business idea: transact the EFP, using a trustee account, get your account bonded. Then transact a loan (with a friend or whoever) and you have established commercial paper with your EFP locked in as the collateral. Sell this paper to debt buyers at a discount, get your cash back out of it and do it again and again.
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Post by huh on Aug 10, 2016 12:27:55 GMT -5
I have a feeling what little is left of bears will probably give up today
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Post by dino on Aug 10, 2016 14:03:21 GMT -5
Overall trend for oil on larger time frames is till up - just attempting swings here. Man, Oil looks poopy again but I'm wanting to pick some UWTI back up at SPX ~2167. That should be ~18 for UWTI I think. Let's see if it gets there...
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Post by huh on Aug 10, 2016 14:53:19 GMT -5
I have a feeling what little is left of bears will probably give up today So much for that. Two bad calls, two days in a row. Guess I should pay closer attention. But I just can't stand to watch this slow market anymore. Lately, seems everything happens just before the open, then nothing. Too painful to try to watch intraday action.
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Post by walnut on Aug 10, 2016 15:11:01 GMT -5
Yep it's gotten real boring.
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Post by walnut on Aug 13, 2016 10:37:20 GMT -5
Studying on the futures transactions called EFP's (exchange for physical). Right now I see that you could lock in a 3% return for one year, with gold futures and using GLD as a proxy for your physical. The only catch I can think of is if gold goes up a lot, and your short future starts losing much, it will be marked to the market and the broker will reduce your cash, even though your account equity should remain constant as your long GLD goes up at the same exact rate. I have a business idea: transact the EFP, using a trustee account, get your account bonded. Then transact a loan (with a friend or whoever) and you have established commercial paper with your EFP locked in as the collateral. Sell this paper to debt buyers at a discount, get your cash back out of it and do it again and again. The August futures and spot gold converged yesterday, for 1 short GC contract and 1048 long GLD shares, you would have made about $500 basically risk free overnight. Only drawback is that Interactive Brokers requires a large margin for that trade, I think about 40k, which seems too high for the smallish level of risk. I wonder what broker is better with EFP's like that.
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