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Post by huh on Apr 18, 2016 6:59:23 GMT -5
10 things you need to know before the opening bell There was no oil deal at Doha. Talks concluded without a deal as Saudi Arabia demanded that Iran take part in any such freeze. "If Iran freezes its oil production … it cannot benefit from the lifting of sanctions," Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said over the weekend. Oil producing nations are now targeting June for a potential freeze. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is down 3.1% at $39.08 per barrel. Brazil's president is on the brink of being impeached. President Dilma Rousseff lost an impeachment vote in Brazil's lower house of Congress on Sunday by a tally of 314-to-110, according to Reuters. The greater than two-thirds majority means Rousseff's fate now lies in the hands of Brazil's upper house of Congress. If the Senate agrees to proceed with the impeachment, Rousseff will be suspended until her trial concludes. Reuters says, Vice President Michel Temer will serve as acting President until a verdict is handed down. He would remain in the position until the term ends in 2018 if Rousseff is impeached. Chinese home prices gained. In March, home prices in China gained in 62 of 70 cities tracked by the government, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Prices in Shenzhen rose 3.7% month-over-month, and are up an astounding 63% versus a year ago, according to Bloomberg. Elsewhere, Beijing and Shanghai saw monthly gains of 3.3% and 4.3%, respectively. Singapore's export slump isn't good for the global economy. Data from International Enterprise showed non-oil exports from Singapore tumbled by 15.6% compared to a year ago, which was worse than the 13.2% decline that economists were forecasting. The drop was the steepest year-over-year comparison since February 2013. The closely followed electronics component sank 9.1% YoY and the non-electronic component plunged 18%. Of course this is bad news as Singapore's exports are viewed as a barometer for the health of the global economy. Saudi Arabia has threatened to dump US Treasuries. Mark Mazzetti of The New York Times reports, Saudi Arabia has threatened to sell $750 billion worth of US Treasuries if Congress passes the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, a bill that would allow the Saudi government to be sued over 9/11. That message was reportedly given to US authorities during last month's visit from Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir. The Obama administration has been lobbying Congress to block the bill, saying it would put US citizens overseas at legal risk. Morgan Stanley beats. The bank earned an adjusted $0.55 per share, topping the $0.47 that was expected by the Bloomberg consensus. Revenue of $7.8 billion slightly outpaced the $7.76 billion that analysts had forecast."The first quarter was characterized by challenging market conditions and muted client activity," CEO James Gorman said in a statement. McGraw Hill is selling J.D. Power and Associates. China's XIO Group is paying $1.1 billion for the car rating unit. According to Reuters, XIO CEO Joseph Pacini said his company's expertise is to buy companies in North America and Europe and to help expand their reach into emerging markets in Asia. The deal is expected to close in the third quarter. Stock markets pretty much everywhere are lower. Japan's Nikkei (-3.4%) led the losses in Asia and Spain's IBEX (-0.4%) paces the decline in Europe. S&P 500 futures are lower by 6.00 points at 2069.00 per dollar. Earnings reporting picks up. Grainger, Hasbro and Pepsico are among the names reporting ahead of the opening bell. IBM and Netflix highlight the names releasing their quarterly results after markets close. US economic data is light. The NAHB Housing Market Index will be released at 10 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is unchanged at 1.75%. www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-april-18-2016-2016-4
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Post by huh on Apr 18, 2016 7:00:17 GMT -5
10 things in tech you need to know today 1. The preliminary deadline for bids for Yahoo is today. Time, Alphabet, Comcast, IAC, and AT&T have all decided against bidding, The Wall Street Journal reports. 2. Facebook has promised it won't use its power to influence the US presidential election. Employees had previously asked Mark Zuckerberg if they should intervene to stop a Donald Trump presidency. 3. A key person working on the revamp of Google Glass has left after just five months. Geoff Dowd joined from Adobe in November 2015, but left in March this year. 4. Europe is reportedly getting ready to file antitrust charges against Google over Android. That's according to The Financial Times' sources. 5. Amazon still can't crack the grocery industry. AmazonFresh isn't a runaway success like Amazon Prime or Amazon Web Services. 6. Yahoo's bidding price could get a big boost because of a business it has nothing to do with. Yahoo Japan, which the main company has no control over, is an "under-appreciated" asset according to SunTrust analyst Robert Peck. 7. America's biggest police department is using Facebook to take down its most dangerous gangs. New York prosecutors are relying on social media evidence more and more. 8. Instagram is spurring the biggest shift the fitness world has seen in decades. There has been a massive shift towards sharing pictures of progress and workouts. 9. Amazon is ramping up its war with Netflix. It is launching a standalone video subscription for the first time, The Verge reports. 10. We tried the $700 mess-free juicer that Silicon Valley investors and celebrities are crazy about. Here's what it's like to use. www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-april-18-2016-4
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Post by huh on Apr 18, 2016 7:01:01 GMT -5
Frontrunning: April 18 Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/18/2016 - 07:36 Crude's Losses Drag Ruble, Loonie Lower; Stocks Pare Their Drop (BBG) Grand Oil Bargain Is Victim of Saudi Arabia's Iran Fixation (BBG) Both Parties’ Presidential Front-Runners Increasingly Unpopular (WSJ) It's up to you, New York: state takes center stage in election campaign (Reuters) Rousseff Hangs by a Thread After Losing Impeachment Vote (BBG) China March home prices rise at fastest rate in two years, top cities boom (Reuters) Shaken Ecuador hunts for survivors amid 7.8 quake debris (Reuters) Oil Worker Strike Cuts in Half Kuwait Crude Production (WSJ) Greek lender mission chiefs resume reform talks in Athens (Reuters) Greece’s Creditors Weigh Extra Austerity Measures to Break Deadlock (WSJ) Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei Takes Aim at Donald Trump’s Trade Policies (WSJ) The Hole at the Center of the Rally: S&P 500 Margins in Decline (BBG) The Trucker's Nightmare That Could Flatten Europe's Economy (BBG) London’s super-rich turn to renting (FT) Treasury Market’s Fastest Traders Don’t Like Trading Treasuries (BBG) Six corpses found in migrant boat, 108 rescued: Italy coast guard (Reuters) Sunedison bankruptcy filing imminent (Reuters) ECB not aiming to weaken euro against dollar: sources (Reuters) www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-18/frontrunning-april-18
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Post by huh on Apr 18, 2016 8:05:41 GMT -5
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Post by clinton on Apr 18, 2016 9:01:02 GMT -5
o yeah, NOW DB wants to act bullish.
grrrrrrr
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Post by Herceg on Apr 18, 2016 9:14:46 GMT -5
Not a lot going on that I see.............may just shut it down and go do some work outside and enjoy the weather..................I'm trying to commit an hour or two in the mornings and if nothing just to shut it down and do something else..........found myself glued to the screen for hours before work with very little if anything to show for it..................
JMO and BOL.............
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Post by huh on Apr 18, 2016 10:20:27 GMT -5
Not a lot going on that I see.............may just shut it down and go do some work outside and enjoy the weather..................I'm trying to commit an hour or two in the mornings and if nothing just to shut it down and do something else..........found myself glued to the screen for hours before work with very little if anything to show for it.................. JMO and BOL............. Herc, what's your plan once it appears the market has topped? Planning on day trading it or just onto hold short positions? My plan is to hold the short positions for larger swing trades, only selling on key pivots or key reversal days, then wait (hopefully) for the large bear market bounces & reload. Waiting for confirmations of bounces would undoubtedly leave $$ on the table, but I'm afraid of selling too soon and missing large chunks of the downside, which could leave even bigger $$ on the table (I'm just not any good at chasing something since I like to have tight stops).
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Post by walnut on Apr 18, 2016 11:01:04 GMT -5
And just like that, VXX is down to 16.27. It is amazing how fast that heads to zero most of the time.
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Post by jacksrbtr on Apr 18, 2016 11:27:55 GMT -5
o yeah, NOW DB wants to act bullish. grrrrrrr Deutschland uber alles Bank?
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Post by Herceg on Apr 18, 2016 12:26:48 GMT -5
Not a lot going on that I see.............may just shut it down and go do some work outside and enjoy the weather..................I'm trying to commit an hour or two in the mornings and if nothing just to shut it down and do something else..........found myself glued to the screen for hours before work with very little if anything to show for it.................. JMO and BOL............. Herc, what's your plan once it appears the market has topped? Planning on day trading it or just onto hold short positions? My plan is to hold the short positions for larger swing trades, only selling on key pivots or key reversal days, then wait (hopefully) for the large bear market bounces & reload. Waiting for confirmations of bounces would undoubtedly leave $$ on the table, but I'm afraid of selling too soon and missing large chunks of the downside, which could leave even bigger $$ on the table (I'm just not any good at chasing something since I like to have tight stops). The only problem is that most things I have checked out are so beaten down that they never recovered as the indices...............I have no plan right now other than wait to see if anything moves either way and try to catch a ride............ JMO and BOL............
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Post by huh on Apr 18, 2016 12:45:51 GMT -5
Herc, what's your plan once it appears the market has topped? Planning on day trading it or just onto hold short positions? My plan is to hold the short positions for larger swing trades, only selling on key pivots or key reversal days, then wait (hopefully) for the large bear market bounces & reload. Waiting for confirmations of bounces would undoubtedly leave $$ on the table, but I'm afraid of selling too soon and missing large chunks of the downside, which could leave even bigger $$ on the table (I'm just not any good at chasing something since I like to have tight stops). The only problem is that most things I have checked out are so beaten down that they never recovered as the indices...............I have no plan right now other than wait to see if anything moves either way and try to catch a ride............ JMO and BOL............ Yeah, I know what you mean - like the big market rallies before. But seems to me this time that has changed. I'm seeing pretty much 30-50% or more down across the board on nearly everything. Even the previously underperforming names that have so far this year performed amazingly well still have pretty low downside targets (ie. X down to mid-3's, FSLR down to <2). Surprisingly, it looks like big tech could take a big part of that hit (TSLA down to 60's, AMZN <350, NFLX down to 50's or lower, etc.). Even some of the big banks have targets 50% lower than here (JPM mid-30's). There are a few things I'd avoid shorting specifically. Coal as a sector for example, or individual names like CLF. They saw so much downside in the last few years that even though they could fall hard as well, why take the risk with them when there's so many other opportunities? I've also been reading about possible risks of major bankruptcies in oil drillers, and I do think oil will fall hard. But when everyone's chasing the carrot seems to be when it normally moves. So again, why take the chance?
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Post by huh on Apr 18, 2016 13:12:24 GMT -5
The only problem is that most things I have checked out are so beaten down that they never recovered as the indices...............I have no plan right now other than wait to see if anything moves either way and try to catch a ride............ JMO and BOL............ Yeah, I know what you mean - like the big market rallies before. But seems to me this time that has changed. I'm seeing pretty much 30-50% or more down across the board on nearly everything. Even the previously underperforming names that have so far this year performed amazingly well still have pretty low downside targets (ie. X down to mid-3's, FSLR down to <2). Surprisingly, it looks like big tech could take a big part of that hit (TSLA down to 60's, AMZN <350, NFLX down to 50's or lower, etc.). Even some of the big banks have targets 50% lower than here (JPM mid-30's). There are a few things I'd avoid shorting specifically. Coal as a sector for example, or individual names like CLF. They saw so much downside in the last few years that even though they could fall hard as well, why take the risk with them when there's so many other opportunities? I've also been reading about possible risks of major bankruptcies in oil drillers, and I do think oil will fall hard. But when everyone's chasing the carrot seems to be when it normally moves. Again, why take the chance? I'd like to play a bear market with ETFs, but not knowing their future, that's hard to do. So I'm looking at 1x's inverse ETFs since they'll be safe even if SEC does away with everything that has more than 1.5x's leverage (which is what the current proposal could do). My thought is that if people are forced out of leveraged ETFs and into the single ones, those could get a decent premium over their NAVs even. Put options might get the most bang for the buck if the market falls hard, but I really don't understand them well enough (Beta, Delta and all that jazz). Inverse Leveraged ETF List for Indices & Major Sectors (including 1x's for indices)I'm thinking PSQ might have the best risk/reward - definitely not the best reward by a long shot, but about as conservative a short as possible in the index that might have the most downside of the three
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Post by walnut on Apr 18, 2016 14:14:55 GMT -5
It is hard to play a big correction with puts, much easier to play a long bull with LEAPS calls. Because, by the time you have sufficient confirm that the correction is real, Vega will have kicked in and the puts will be pretty expensive. It can work but just as likely, if you were wrong, you overpaid for the puts, Vega quickly drops, and you just lost some money.
That's why I want a big correction, so a healthy bull will one day be back...
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Post by huh on Apr 18, 2016 15:21:24 GMT -5
It is hard to play a big correction with puts, much easier to play a long bull with LEAPS calls. Because, by the time you have sufficient confirm that the correction is real, Vega will have kicked in and the puts will be pretty expensive. It can work but just as likely, if you were wrong, you overpaid for the puts, Vega quickly drops, and you just lost some money. That's why I want a big correction, so a healthy bull will one day be back... I'm not too worried about the Vega then. I think you know pretty quick if you catch the market top or not. If market goes higher, dump it. My concern is catching the top but then getting caught by those bear market bounces that can be 5% or more in a single day. I imagine with options that could wipe out nearly all or all your gains in a single day. Even if the market then continues down, then you've got some major decay working against your puts. And of course there's the whole time thing with options. I don't know when it'll bottom (though if the market makes a new high here soon, October would likely be a good time to dump puts and wait for next move). Even with leaps, if market dumps too fast, your puts might be too far out and not catch much premium. It would suck to call for a 50% correction, buy puts, and then watch the market actually correct 50% but maybe not even get 50% on your puts by the time they expire because of decay and bad timing. Lots of potential stumbling blocks even if you're right with the market direction. (and I know you know all of this well Walnut, which is why you've said selling options is the way to go - and I can see why)
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Post by walnut on Apr 18, 2016 16:42:56 GMT -5
You are right on all that, but that said, if you could somehow catch the puts right, you could get rich haha The prices can rise much much faster than the decay if the stars are aligned for you.
4 months out options only lose about .01 per day or so. Way less with vega ratcheting up, decay almost becomes moot. And the options might be going up .60 a day.
See I play devils advocate even against myself
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Post by huh on Apr 18, 2016 17:28:07 GMT -5
You are right on all that, but that said, if you could somehow catch the puts right, you could get rich haha The prices can rise much much faster than the decay if the stars are aligned for you. 4 months out options only lose about .01 per day or so. Way less with vega ratcheting up, decay almost becomes moot. And the options might be going up .60 a day. See I play devils advocate even against myself And that's where I get lost. Let's say for example I think SPY will be under 160 in October. Do I buy Sep puts that are higher than 160, say, around 175 & pay that extra premium? Or, do I buy Dec puts, which cost twice as much right now, but hope that I can sell them in Oct while they're in the money? I could go even further out, and bet for even more downside, but the premium just gets higher and higher, so what would be the point? And why are there no Oct puts? ... and those are only the questions that immediately popped into my head when looking at the option chain. Betting with options seems to be tough since you can't just know the direction, seems you got to be pretty precise with the timing as well.
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Post by walnut on Apr 18, 2016 19:16:34 GMT -5
You are right on all that, but that said, if you could somehow catch the puts right, you could get rich haha The prices can rise much much faster than the decay if the stars are aligned for you. 4 months out options only lose about .01 per day or so. Way less with vega ratcheting up, decay almost becomes moot. And the options might be going up .60 a day. See I play devils advocate even against myself And that's where I get lost. Let's say for example I think SPY will be under 160 in October. Do I buy Sep puts that are higher than 160, say, around 175 & pay that extra premium? Or, do I buy Dec puts, which cost twice as much right now, but hope that I can sell them in Oct while they're in the money? I could go even further out, and bet for even more downside, but the premium just gets higher and higher, so what would be the point? And why are there no Oct puts? ... and those are only the questions that immediately popped into my head when looking at the option chain. Betting with options seems to be tough since you can't just know the direction, seems you got to be pretty precise with the timing as well. First, assume that all of the puts are somewhat fairly valued, and about any are within a few cents of correct value based on historical variance, strike price, time etc. Computers set those prices for the most part and they all use some modified Black-Scholes formula. Just look for one that is cheaper relative to its option model value than the rest. Another way to do it is to look for one with the lowest implied volatility compared to the other contracts. That is not to say each contract is equally useful or safe, they are not. They are just all about fairly valued statistically. Puts that are progressively more in the money move proportionately more with the SPY, until delta gets to 1.0, then it is completely leveraged to it. Further out of the money is safer to your principal, and you can wait for the SPY to fall towards your strike price. If it falls towards it fast enough, you will make money. I myself would instead try to get much of the same price movement by selling forward month calls, they will move down penny for penny at about the same rate as the puts will go up, and you will have declining time value on your side, instead of against you. Think about it and you will see why I am addicted to the strategy, it is like you are being allowed to sell an inventory that has been provided to you free of charge by the brokerage. That inventory is time value. Hope I didn't muddle that up too much. I am jumping around but I just woke up from a nap. Get with me when you are kinda serious and I'll tell you what I think about specific contracts. It is hard for me to visualize this trade because I would not do it myself just yet. BTW, October is just not an expiration month for SPY until those weeks become weeklies, about a month out.
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Post by huh on Apr 18, 2016 22:22:00 GMT -5
As you can see, I'm still pretty stoopid when it comes to options, so thanks for sharing your wisdom Walnut.
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Post by huh on Apr 18, 2016 22:24:35 GMT -5
BTW, SPX finally hit the 2094 upside target for the 01/20-02/11 Double-Bottom.
Now things should get interesting.
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Post by walnut on Apr 18, 2016 23:05:38 GMT -5
As you can see, I'm still pretty stoopid when it comes to options, so thanks for sharing your wisdom Walnut. I'm telling you options are fascinating. If you get the bug you can't shake it
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