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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 1, 2017 10:51:52 GMT -5
7k long VXX in 45.90 range for scalp stop just below lod 45.72 You are still up a few pennies Mist. You should take it.
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Post by theMist on Sept 1, 2017 10:52:09 GMT -5
24% roll yield and 9% contango. Looks to me like this is going to get hammered down at some point today. I know -- contango still favors shorting VIX SCAMs and does look like S&P has more to run in short term might take profits then again might get quick move to fill morning gap to 46.32 then cash out we'll see...
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Post by theMist on Sept 1, 2017 11:01:22 GMT -5
I'm still thinking a massive spike with real correction some time by end of October
And it could start when vix futures rollover this month
Walnut - I know with each day as we get closer to vix futures expiry the weightings shift a lot to the following month (October)
At what point, do you think the weightings will start to heavily favor October (3%)? I know the day of expiry, pretty much in Octobers weighting but I'm sure within the next week, week 1/2, might already be heavily weighted in Octobers future contract
thoughts?
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 1, 2017 11:06:28 GMT -5
You have to be perfect with your timing when you buy vxx long. I think in this case, your timing is way too early to make money on this long.
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Post by walnut on Sept 1, 2017 11:06:38 GMT -5
It is perfectly linear transfer of weighting from September to October, so about Oct 5th to the 10th October becomes the major weighting.
The problem with trying to read a weak contango based on futures curve is: How to know if it is weak contango or instead just low estimate of volatility by November / December? Unfortunately it is not clear to me.
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Post by theMist on Sept 1, 2017 11:09:36 GMT -5
It is perfectly linear transfer of weighting from September to October, so about Oct 5th to the 10th October becomes the major weighting. The problem with trying to read a weak contango based on futures curve is: How to know if it is weak contango or instead just low estimate of volatility by November / December? Unfortunately it is not clear to me. Don't you mean Sept 5th to the Sept 10th becomes major weighting into Octobers contract? Or I am I misunderstanding
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Post by theMist on Sept 1, 2017 11:10:50 GMT -5
You have to be perfect with your timing when you buy vxx long. I think in this case, your timing is way too early to make money on this long. I have my order in to sell at 46.44 then might flip to short
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Post by walnut on Sept 1, 2017 11:20:32 GMT -5
It is perfectly linear transfer of weighting from September to October, so about Oct 5th to the 10th October becomes the major weighting. The problem with trying to read a weak contango based on futures curve is: How to know if it is weak contango or instead just low estimate of volatility by November / December? Unfortunately it is not clear to me. Don't you mean Sept 5th to the Sept 10th becomes major weighting into Octobers contract? Or I am I misunderstanding Yes you are right
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Post by theMist on Sept 1, 2017 11:22:42 GMT -5
Don't you mean Sept 5th to the Sept 10th becomes major weighting into Octobers contract? Or I am I misunderstanding Yes you are right So by middle of next week, weightings will favor more closely to 3.5% contango assuming things stay around the same
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Post by walnut on Sept 1, 2017 11:29:29 GMT -5
So by middle of next week, weightings will favor more closely to 3.5% contango assuming things stay around the same Yeah, except that September is about to be dropping really fast unless vix comes up. So, it is very hard to forecast contango
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Post by theMist on Sept 1, 2017 11:31:59 GMT -5
So by middle of next week, weightings will favor more closely to 3.5% contango assuming things stay around the same Yeah, except that September is about to be dropping really fast unless vix comes up. So, it is very hard to forecast contango Interesting
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Post by Herceg on Sept 1, 2017 12:37:55 GMT -5
Should have known mkt. would be up before a 3 day weekend..............never fails................could have, should have but of course did not short scams at all................Tuesday will be up day as usual giving me more grief for not doing it...............barring another missile by Chubsy-Wubsy which still might not make the mkt. flinch.....................basically wash, rinse and repeat...........just like the previous 8 years...............Have a nice weekend all !!!!
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Post by walnut on Sept 1, 2017 12:41:13 GMT -5
Should have known mkt. would be up before a 3 day weekend..............never fails................could have, should have but of course did not short scams at all................Tuesday will be up day as usual giving me more grief for not doing it...............barring another missile by Chubsy-Wubsy which still might not make the mkt. flinch.....................basically wash, rinse and repeat...........just like the previous 8 years...............Have a nice weekend all !!!! yeah but vxx trading a little nervous
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Post by Herceg on Sept 1, 2017 12:46:58 GMT -5
Should have known mkt. would be up before a 3 day weekend..............never fails................could have, should have but of course did not short scams at all................Tuesday will be up day as usual giving me more grief for not doing it...............barring another missile by Chubsy-Wubsy which still might not make the mkt. flinch.....................basically wash, rinse and repeat...........just like the previous 8 years...............Have a nice weekend all !!!! yeah but vxx trading a little nervous I cannot disagree, but we've all seen this song and dance it seems like forever.................it always seems to lull people into buying which I have in the past only to get burned......................OR............I'm hesitant to go long and just when I did, the rug was pulled out from under me...........never again..............I never lost on a short..............just too stupid to close them out instead of just riding them..................nobody to blame but myself.................
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Post by theMist on Sept 1, 2017 13:30:17 GMT -5
FLY my BABIES!!
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Post by theMist on Sept 1, 2017 14:01:57 GMT -5
SOLD VXX earlier up a few k have a good weekend all Kim Jung Un congratulated me lmao
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Post by walnut on Sept 1, 2017 14:08:02 GMT -5
His account is up 100% every day I heard
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 1, 2017 14:11:10 GMT -5
good job Mist. Was it worth the aggravation?
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 1, 2017 15:03:59 GMT -5
I covered everything near the close.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 1, 2017 15:09:24 GMT -5
This was quite strange to see the vix really down a lot and contango strong yet tvix didn't really want to drop.
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