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Post by huh on Aug 11, 2017 6:59:26 GMT -5
10 things you need to know before the opening bell The S&P 500's streak of going nowhere is over. The benchmark index fell 1.45% on Thursday, making for the biggest one-day drop since May 17 and the first time in 16 sessions that it did not close within 0.30% of its previous day's close. Volatility is back. The Volatility Index, or VIX, surged by 45% on Thursday to its highest level since April amid growing tension between the US and North Korea. Fed rate-hike odds are sliding. The market is pricing in just a 33.6% chance the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate before the end of the year, according to Bloomberg's World Interest Rate Probability data. The IEA raises its forecast for world oil demand. The International Energy Agency said on Friday it was raising its world oil-demand forecast for the rest of 2017 to 1.5 million barrels a day and for 2018 to 1.4 million barrels a day amid a rebalancing in the market. Jeff Gundlach says gold's chart has 'one of the most bullish' patterns around. Gundlach, the founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, tweeted on Thursday: "Cramer today was positive on a stock pointing out its 'cup and handle' chart pattern, one of the most bullish. He's right. Gold has one too." Snap misses across the board. Shares of the social-media company plunged more than 16% in after-hours trading on Thursday after announcing the addition of 7 million daily active users in the second quarter, well shy of the 10 million users analysts were expecting. Both earnings and revenue also missed Wall Street estimates. Nvidia trounces expectations. The maker of graphics-processing units earned $1.10 a share on revenue of $2.23 billion, easily beating the $0.82 and $1.96 billion that Wall Street was anticipating. Shares fell as much as 8% in extended trading on Thursday. Stock markets around the world are lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-2.04%) led the losses in Asia, and Britain's FTSE (-1.09%) lags in Europe. The S&P 500 is set to open little changed near 2,437. Earnings reports trickle out. J.C. Penney reports ahead of the opening bell. US economic data is light. CPI will cross the wires at 8:30 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is unchanged at 2.19%. www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-august-11-2017-2017-8 |
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Post by huh on Aug 11, 2017 7:00:12 GMT -5
10 things in tech you need to know today 1. Former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick is being sued by early investor Benchmark Capital over fraud allegations. Benchmark said it would never have approved three extra board seats if it was made aware of the controversy inside Uber. 2. Google cancelled a meeting for staff with CEO Sundar Pichai that was meant to address the controversial memo written by James Damore. The meeting was cancelled less than two hours before it was meant to take place — and Google blamed safety concerns. 3. Snap missed across the board for Q2 earnings and its stock sank. Stock was down 16% after the company only increased the number of daily users by 7 million. 4. Elon Musk has publicly denied a story about him firing his assistant of 10 years. Musk called the story, which was included in a biography about him, "total nonsense." 5. Uber's first employee, a close confidant of ex-CEO Travis Kalanick, is stepping down. Senior vice president of global operations Ryan Graves will step down in September. 6. Amazon reportedly wants to offer ticketing for events in the US. It recently started holding live shows for Amazon Prime members. 7. Microsoft's Surface devices are "significantly less reliable" than other laptops, says Consumer Reports. It removed its "recommended" designation for the products. 8. SoftBank is now the major power player in Indian ecommerce after a reported $2.5 billion (£1.9 billion) investment in Flipkart. Flipkart is the biggest ecommerce firm in India with around 37% market share. 9. SoundCloud must sign a new investment deal today or it risks running out of funding. The company is on the verge of signing a deal for $170 million (£130 million) in new funding. 10. Apple is facing a new antitrust challenge in China. 28 local developers are accusing Apple of removing their apps and charging high fees. www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-today-august-11-2017-8 |
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Post by huh on Aug 11, 2017 7:10:29 GMT -5
Here's the summary again of that huge bullish VIX trade someone put on a few weeks ago. That someone's gotta be celebrating with VIX up 68% in under 3 days. Here's the bullet points to that large VIX trade: - To fund it, the investor sold 262,000 VIX puts expiring in October, with a strike price of 12.
- The trader then used those proceeds to buy a VIX 1x2 call spread, which involves buying 262,000 October contracts with a strike price of 15 and selling 524,000 October contracts with a strike price of 25.
- For reference, bullish call spreads are used when a moderate rise in the underlying asset is expected. Traders buy call options at a specific strike price while selling the same number of calls of the same asset and expiration date at a higher strike.
- In a perfect scenario, where the VIX hits but doesn't exceed 25 before October expiration, the trader would see a whopping $262 million payout.
- It is possible for the VIX to spike too much. If it increased beyond 35.2, the investor would start to lose money since they used a call spread, even though they got the direction of the trade correct.
- For context, VIX October futures are trading at 13.6, while the spot index closed at 9.62 on Thursday.
Full article here |
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Post by theMist on Aug 11, 2017 7:19:38 GMT -5
Jim's video
talks about support at SP2410 and if that breaks where looking at something a lot bigger
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Post by huh on Aug 11, 2017 7:22:22 GMT -5
JCP trading down nearly 25% in pre. Already down into the 3.50's I still see a long term target for JCP ~.95 (down ~50% since I posted this in August). Personally I'd avoid longs in all brick & mortar retailers this year. I believe many run the real risk of BK, even the large ones. JMHO Been waiting for this set-up for a while: Short JCP anything ~10.84, long term downside target ~.95 (remember though, everything bounces hard ~2 on the way down)  |
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Post by ipath on Aug 11, 2017 8:07:04 GMT -5
SCAMS are losing steam, contango -1.61%... dilemma, take the profits or wait. What are things looking like from the technical perspective?
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Post by huh on Aug 11, 2017 8:08:05 GMT -5
I always find it interesting that no matter where the S&P is trading, that +/-7 phenomenon is always significant. ES LOD so far -7.25. Let's see if +7 plays a part now.
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Post by walnut on Aug 11, 2017 8:12:07 GMT -5
SCAMS are losing steam, contango -1.61%... dilemma, take the profits or wait. What are things looking like from the technical perspective? I am sitting here wondering what is happening myself |
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Post by huh on Aug 11, 2017 8:12:12 GMT -5
SCAMS are losing steam, contango -1.61%... dilemma, take the profits or wait. What are things looking like from the technical perspective? JMHO, but most indices lost support & confirmed bearish patterns only yesterday. Yesterday's move may have been only the beginning. |
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Post by theMist on Aug 11, 2017 8:18:05 GMT -5
SCAMs swinging wildly already
still holding vxx
Looking for selling in S&P when market opens...we'll see
vix futures improved but still in backwardation as I type
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Post by huh on Aug 11, 2017 8:19:29 GMT -5
I always find it interesting that no matter where the S&P is trading, that +/-7 phenomenon is always significant. ES LOD so far -7.25. Let's see if +7 plays a part now. ES HOD so far +7 to the penny |
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Post by theMist on Aug 11, 2017 8:27:30 GMT -5
vix futures As a long term shorter of volatility, I would not be shorting the SCAMs with a vix futures curve that looks like this
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Post by ipath on Aug 11, 2017 8:27:58 GMT -5
I am also still full on bear in different ways through options and SCAMS but lightened up yesterday maybe 10-15%
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Post by huh on Aug 11, 2017 8:30:55 GMT -5
After dropping from a now post-split adjusted $700,000 when I mentioned shorting this back in November, all the way down to under $1.00, DRYS is popping big this morning
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Post by ipath on Aug 11, 2017 8:31:42 GMT -5
This pullback may just give them the energy they needed to fly higher. It looks like there was some profit taking going on... Wonder how the new margin requirements by IB may influence the SCAMS. To be able to predict any significant move on that factor one would need more statistical data
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Post by walnut on Aug 11, 2017 8:38:36 GMT -5
I hope IB increases margins back to normal soon, or I will be gone. These are pretty restrictive.
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Post by theMist on Aug 11, 2017 8:41:18 GMT -5
FLY MY BABIES!!
Want to see VXX hit 100dsma at 13.84ish
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Post by ipath on Aug 11, 2017 8:42:33 GMT -5
walnut, I don't know if you read my post from yesterday.. They changing the requirements again on Sat, restricting them further
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Post by walnut on Aug 11, 2017 8:54:35 GMT -5
walnut, I don't know if you read my post from yesterday.. They changing the requirements again on Sat, restricting them further Yes, the way I understand it is that they raised the initial margin this week and they are raising their maintenance margin next week. I think I am deferring to their judgement on the risk of vix products for the moment, they might know best. But if they don't raise those margins back up after the correction I will have to move. |
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Post by theMist on Aug 11, 2017 8:54:50 GMT -5
Sold some VXX with the push to 13.40s
Markets look like they want to snap back a little before rolling back over
final hour will be important going into weekend
might put in a green close today
VXX is outside its upper BB on daily chart and can still drop back down to 12.30ish to backtest
VXX at inflection point -- turn back down to backtest or continue higher?
I still say markets still selloff - today can be just a pause w/ small pop back up (consolidation)
and then can continue selling next week
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