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Post by ipath on Apr 24, 2017 12:36:02 GMT -5
DB +11.5%!!! What triggered that? I believe the increase in probability for survival of the Euro and EU in general
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Post by walnut on Apr 24, 2017 13:13:14 GMT -5
SEC Rule 201 - the "uptick rule" has been implemented on all of the scams, until tomorrow at 6 pm eastern.
No shorting of VXX or TVIX allowed without previous uptick trade allowed. really hard to get a trade through.
I am wondering about going long XIV instead.
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Post by walnut on Apr 24, 2017 13:15:39 GMT -5
I won't try to short it anymore with that kind of unnatural bias placed against it. Not sure how it will behave.
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 13:21:03 GMT -5
iPath - not sure if you saw my question to you on Friday Are you holding a basket of stocks along with your 20% short TVIX? along with VXX puts, VIX calls I know of traders who structure their portfolios that way and only increase their short TVIX position when VIX hits a certain threshold (i.e. VIX 15, VIX 20, etc.) Sorry, didn't see the question. To be honest I am still experimenting to see what makes sense the most, but I am definitely diversified. I follow unusual option activity too and follow the big sharks. For example, when Intel acquired Mobileye a few months ago it caught my attention that there was unusually high option activity in the weeks leading up to the announcement. It's an isreali company and I knew they must know something the public doesn't plus the company looked ok, so I followed. I made the best money when I first started out shorting them SCAMS, because I didn't really understand how bad it can go if it doesn't go your way and they spike. Luckily I didn't have to learn it the hard way. I think I am too overprotective now, but still never go more than 70-80% of my portfolio short. How about the rest of you guys? I'm all in or out (mostly shorting) vix scams and on leverage. Mostly scalping from premarket to after hours. I used to have hard rule about not holding position overnight but have revised it to allow for swing trades. At most I will hold 2-3 days whether long or short. I am shorting the SCAMs like 90% of the time. Others will just wait for a spike and then short them. Being long VIX SCAMs definitely not an easy trade and timing has to be precise. Sometimes only have matter of mins to get out with profit. Going long VXX, TVIX, UVXY, absolutely not recommended for long term buy and hold as they are rigged to drop to near zero, reverse split, rinse and repeat (in constant downtrend). Hence why we call them the VIX SCAMs lol. Shorting them is definitely the most forgiving trade and best trade there is IMO. I was heavily shorting TVIX, UVXY during the Trump rally and then when TVIX dropped below $5, switched to trading VXX. I also switched from Scottrade to IB (since Scottrade doesn't allow shorting any security under $5) but IB's commissions are way too steep for the way I trade. Was averaging around $300 a day, $1500 a week, $6k a month. So I switched back to Scottrade. I've done very well. Me and Walnut have tried to come up with good hedging strategies for simply staying short a sizeable position in TVIX or VXX but have not been able to come up with any good strategies. And if staying short long term VXX, TVIX, we feel best to keep it small and keep plenty of dry powder in case get a real spike. Last real correction TVIX spiked about 550% and if TVIX had been around during the Bear market - by six figure investing's calculations TVIX would have spiked approx 15X
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 13:36:28 GMT -5
I won't try to short it anymore with that kind of unnatural bias placed against it. Not sure how it will behave. It will simply just slow them a litle bit on their death spiral lol
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Post by walnut on Apr 24, 2017 13:40:10 GMT -5
It's only through tomorrow then business as usual
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Post by ipath on Apr 24, 2017 13:42:57 GMT -5
Thanks for sharing Mist.. It's amazing that you can do that. When I am at work it's difficult to always babysit them. But wow 15x! I knew the multiple was high but didn't know it was 1500%. So if a real 10% correction happens within the next year and tvix does spike 500%+, one should assume that TVIX will revisit the $40's or lets say current levels even if the correction was to happen in a year from now.
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 13:43:49 GMT -5
CNBC News Alert
Trump wants to cut corp tax rate to 15% but facing certain hurdles 15% is what he had mentioned when on campaign trail
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Post by ipath on Apr 24, 2017 13:44:07 GMT -5
I won't try to short it anymore with that kind of unnatural bias placed against it. Not sure how it will behave. It will simply just slow them a litle bit on their death spiral lol Buy VXX put options
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 13:46:19 GMT -5
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 13:49:34 GMT -5
lol - yes
So long term buyers/investors of TVIX usually find themselves averaging in to try and get their money back and that's if they are lucky
We were looking/hoping for VXX to get to 20 range so we can put on solid short for longer term
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Post by walnut on Apr 24, 2017 13:49:47 GMT -5
It will simply just slow them a litle bit on their death spiral lol Buy VXX put options I think the short trade on vxx is winding down for the day anyway. Wouldn't touch those puts right now, too much spread and commissions
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Post by walnut on Apr 24, 2017 13:57:02 GMT -5
Last week there were no shares available for a while, now today the uptick rule. I guess don't assume you can short the scams at some of those best times.
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 14:04:45 GMT -5
Where's Las Vegas?! Somebody wake him up lol
He's probably having green tea at an outdoor cafe in LA
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 14:16:18 GMT -5
VXX Daily chartIndicators starting to roll bearish and VXX setting up possibly for move to new all time lows
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Post by lasvegas77 on Apr 24, 2017 14:46:12 GMT -5
Where's Las Vegas?! Somebody wake him up lol He's probably having green tea at an outdoor cafe in LA LOL! Thank you Mist. You have made my day today with that. I am of course very surprised by today's action. While the contango is now back, I think im going to hang out for a while and not touch this vxx until after the French election. I don't think the polls are really right. And even if they are right, it's a risk that i don't need to take because tvix will still be here to trade afterwards. In the meantime, I'm enjoying my freshly brewed Zambia estates coffee.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Apr 24, 2017 14:49:21 GMT -5
It's really amazing to see the vix lose more than a quarter of its value in one day when it was not even that high.
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 14:52:46 GMT -5
It's really amazing to see the vix lose more than a quarter of its value in one day when it was not even that high. VIX, VIX SCAMs are absolutely crushed with one overnight move
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Post by lasvegas77 on Apr 24, 2017 14:54:33 GMT -5
By the way Mist, I see you wrote about tvix would have likely gone up 15x in the last by 15x. I do agree it would likely spike that much. I think last time i looked it went up 700-800% during the Euro crisis. I beileve that was a mere correction for the market if i remember correctly. So could go even higher than 15x i believe in a real serious bear market.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Apr 24, 2017 14:55:28 GMT -5
*15x in the last bear market.
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