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Post by ipath on Apr 24, 2017 8:53:15 GMT -5
Good morning all! The VIX chart looks very similar to the one I posted last week of the VIX behaving around US elections. The elections are actually not over, so I can see this same spike repeating to some extent
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 8:55:02 GMT -5
Amazing what an overnight move can do  |
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Post by walnut on Apr 24, 2017 8:55:54 GMT -5
That's why they call it a trend.
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Post by clinton on Apr 24, 2017 8:56:07 GMT -5
I forget where I saw this first but it made me laugh:
Trump's new tax plan is that Mexico will pay our taxes. Gracias mis amigos!!
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Post by ipath on Apr 24, 2017 8:56:38 GMT -5
Amazing how when looking back, this isn't the first time that markets were flashing signs of correction / pullback and a lot was leaning in Bears favor. And bullish argument had very little to go on and BOOM they jam the markets higher. However, whether this move fades or not is another question and at some point S&P should fill this morning gap UP (just a question of when). When the real correction hits, its not going to be when markets are flashing signs of falling off cliff. It almost always happens when everyone least expects it to IMO. Exactly, that's what I have been saying last week. People are hedged, other are waiting on the sidelines to jump in. Everyone talking about correction and that's not when it usually happens. When the last bears throw the towel and give up is when it will hit the hardest, especially if one of the catalysts, the fundamental drivers of the really is brought into question |
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 8:57:41 GMT -5
Good morning all! The VIX chart looks very similar to the one I posted last week of the VIX behaving around US elections. The elections are actually not over, so I can see this same spike repeating to some extent Good morning iPath Like the avatar! And congrats on sticking with VIX SCAM short! French Presidential election is on May 7th and will be interesting. Also, tax reform announcement this Wednesday will definitely be a market moving event. So, are you expecting another spike in volatility as we get closer to French Presidential Election? |
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 9:01:14 GMT -5
Amazing how when looking back, this isn't the first time that markets were flashing signs of correction / pullback and a lot was leaning in Bears favor. And bullish argument had very little to go on and BOOM they jam the markets higher. However, whether this move fades or not is another question and at some point S&P should fill this morning gap UP (just a question of when). When the real correction hits, its not going to be when markets are flashing signs of falling off cliff. It almost always happens when everyone least expects it to IMO. Exactly, that's what I have been saying last week. People are hedged, other are waiting on the sidelines to jump in. Everyone talking about correction and that's not when it usually happens. When the last bears throw the towel and give up is when it will hit the hardest, especially if one of the catalysts, the fundamental drivers of the really is brought into question Good call!! |
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Post by ipath on Apr 24, 2017 9:07:09 GMT -5
Good morning all! The VIX chart looks very similar to the one I posted last week of the VIX behaving around US elections. The elections are actually not over, so I can see this same spike repeating to some extent Good morning iPath Like the avatar! And congrats on sticking with VIX SCAM short! French Presidential election is on May 7th and will be interesting. Also, tax reform announcement this Wednesday will definitely be a market moving event. So, are you expecting another spike in volatility as we get closer to French Presidential Election? Thanks, I thought the avatar best describes the current situation  I only kept about 20% of my account short in TVIX, had some put options in VXX and some call in VIX, but honestly this is first time in weeks that I am making money.. so thanks to the Lord the election result went in my favor this time. I thought that either way volatility was going to either stay the same with a huge La Pen lead or go down if her results are bad, so I took a chance. As for the volatility move from here, I would say it depends on the polls and how close the two candidates score. However, after surprise Brexit and Trump victory people are not really taking anything for granted. So I am sure the volatility will go up leading up to the election, the question is when will it start.. maybe today... maybe next week |
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 9:14:28 GMT -5
Good for you iPath
I'll be back in half hour -- going to deli and getting breakfast
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Post by novie08 on Apr 24, 2017 9:15:15 GMT -5
Here we go again, it keeps changing. Today, dollar and markets move in opposite directions as in the old days. Also unusual to see the metals and dollar move together. (Head scratching).
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Post by clinton on Apr 24, 2017 9:48:49 GMT -5
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Post by walnut on Apr 24, 2017 9:59:04 GMT -5
This is the Amazon economy. You don't really need to leave your house, and the kids can play video games 24/7.
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Post by Herceg on Apr 24, 2017 10:12:38 GMT -5
This is the Amazon economy. You don't really need to leave your house, and the kids can play video games 24/7. I was just commenting to my wife yesterday that everything nowadays is done electronically that you will not see people anymore as everyone will be isolated in their houses and never leave..........................we as a society will forget how to interact or communicate it seems................pretty sad to see it go that way especially for future generations..................... |
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 10:24:19 GMT -5
This is the Amazon economy. You don't really need to leave your house, and the kids can play video games 24/7. I was just commenting to my wife yesterday that everything nowadays is done electronically that you will not see people anymore as everyone will be isolated in their houses and never leave..........................we as a society will forget how to interact or communicate it seems................pretty sad to see it go that way especially for future generations..................... you had the right idea Herc Stay short the SCAMs and turn off the computer lmao |
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Post by walnut on Apr 24, 2017 10:39:21 GMT -5
This is the Amazon economy. You don't really need to leave your house, and the kids can play video games 24/7. I was just commenting to my wife yesterday that everything nowadays is done electronically that you will not see people anymore as everyone will be isolated in their houses and never leave..........................we as a society will forget how to interact or communicate it seems................pretty sad to see it go that way especially for future generations..................... Trump will fix that too.  |
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 11:01:54 GMT -5
S&P FuturesHas to fill that gap up at some point - and not saying necessarily today 
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Post by theMist on Apr 24, 2017 11:53:25 GMT -5
iPath - not sure if you saw my question to you on Friday
Are you holding a basket of stocks along with your 20% short TVIX?
along with VXX puts, VIX calls
I know of traders who structure their portfolios that way and only increase
their short TVIX position when VIX hits a certain threshold (i.e. VIX 15, VIX 20, etc.)
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Post by novie08 on Apr 24, 2017 12:30:50 GMT -5
This is the Amazon economy. You don't really need to leave your house, and the kids can play video games 24/7. Personally think when online retailing went with free shipping/free returns it was game changing. |
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Post by novie08 on Apr 24, 2017 12:33:31 GMT -5
DB +11.5%!!! What triggered that? Sure wish I had bought that one back in Sept. when it was scary and Huh called it exactly right with his "buy" recommendation! WTG Huh, hope you have held it.
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Post by ipath on Apr 24, 2017 12:34:26 GMT -5
iPath - not sure if you saw my question to you on Friday Are you holding a basket of stocks along with your 20% short TVIX? along with VXX puts, VIX calls I know of traders who structure their portfolios that way and only increase their short TVIX position when VIX hits a certain threshold (i.e. VIX 15, VIX 20, etc.) Sorry, didn't see the question. To be honest I am still experimenting to see what makes sense the most, but I am definitely diversified. I follow unusual option activity too and follow the big sharks. For example, when Intel acquired Mobileye a few months ago it caught my attention that there was unusually high option activity in the weeks leading up to the announcement. It's an isreali company and I knew they must know something the public doesn't plus the company looked ok, so I followed. I made the best money when I first started out shorting them SCAMS, because I didn't really understand how bad it can go if it doesn't go your way and they spike. Luckily I didn't have to learn it the hard way. I think I am too overprotective now, but still never go more than 70-80% of my portfolio short. How about the rest of you guys? |
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I only kept about 20% of my account short in TVIX, had some put options in VXX and some call in VIX, but honestly this is first time in weeks that I am making money.. so thanks to the Lord the election result went in my favor this time. I thought that either way volatility was going to either stay the same with a huge La Pen lead or go down if her results are bad, so I took a chance. As for the volatility move from here, I would say it depends on the polls and how close the two candidates score. However, after surprise Brexit and Trump victory people are not really taking anything for granted. So I am sure the volatility will go up leading up to the election, the question is when will it start.. maybe today... maybe next week
