WEDNESDAY 04/19

[huh]

10 things you need to know before the opening bell

Mnuchin defends the dollar. In Wednesday's Financial Times, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was quoted as saying Trump was "absolutely not" trying to talk down the dollar during a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal.

Fed rate-hike odds are falling. The market sees a 43.7% chance the Fed hikes in June or sooner — that's down from 66.5% just over a week ago.

Euro-area inflation slows. Euro-area annual inflation came in at 1.5% in March, down from the 2% reading in February, according to Eurostat data. Transport fuels (+0.48%) had the biggest upward impact, while telecommunication and package holidays (both -0.09%) had the biggest downward impact.

Audi's CEO says China's premium car market will explode. "We will expect significant growth," Audi CEO Rupert Stadler said at the Shanghai Auto Show. "It doesn't matter if it comes in two years or three years. But at least from a 10-year perspective we see growth."

The British pound is holding on to its gains. The pound surged by as much as 2.6% on Tuesday after UK Prime Minister Theresa May called for early elections. While sterling is off its best levels of Tuesday, it has held on to the bulk of its gains, trading little changed at 1.2830 against the dollar.

Yahoo's last report beats. The search giant earned $0.18 a share on revenue of $833.8 million during the first quarter in its last report before the Verizon acquisition closes.

IBM's revenue falls for a 20th straight quarter. Total revenue fell 2.8% to $18.16 billion in the first quarter. But revenue from "strategic imperatives" such as cloud-based services, security software, and data analytics jumped 12% to $7.8 billion.

Stock markets around the world are mixed. China's Shanghai Composite (-0.8%) trailed in Asia, and Germany's DAX (+0.3%) leads in Europe. The S&P 500 is set to open higher by 0.2% near 2,347.

Earnings reporting heats up. Morgan Stanley reports ahead of the opening bell, while American Express, eBay, and Qualcomm release their quarterly results after markets close.

US economic data is light. The Fed's Beige Book will cross the wires at 2 p.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is higher by 3 basis points at 2.20%.

www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-april-19-2017-2017-4

[huh]

10 things in tech you need to know today

1. Facebook's next big thing is augmented reality. The social network kicked off its F8 conference on Tuesday, where CEO Mark Zuckerberg discussed the company's plans to move into AR.

2. Google Earth has rolled out its biggest update yet. It has introduced "Voyager," which offers curated journeys around the (virtual) world.

3. Verizon's CEO says he's open to merger talks with Comcast, Disney, or CBS. Shares rose around 1% following the report.

4. Apple has made its Microsoft Office killer available for free. Anyone can now download iWork.

5. Yahoo beat earnings expectations, but its stock went nowhere. It's likely to be its last earnings report before the Verizon acquisition closes.

6. IBM's revenue has now fallen for 20 quarters in a row. Its revenue dropped by more than expected in its most recent earnings report, causing its stock to drop 3.7%.

7.Snapchat is releasing its most impressive use of augmented reality to date. The app has announced World Lenses, which overlay virtual objects in the real worl.

8. If the latest iPhone 8 rumours are true, Samsung should be worried. The next iPhone is rumoured to have a bigger OLED screen, a glass-and-steel design, and no home button.

9. There's a Google Doc shared by hundreds of techies to create a core set of values for Silicon Valley. Y Combinator president Sam Altman is working with others to sketch out the industry's positions on a number of political, social, and economic issues.

10. Facebook wants people to hang out with their friends in virtual reality. It has announced Facebook Spaces, an app that gives people virtual avatars.

www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-april-19-2017-4

[huh]

Frontrunning: April 19

As Trump warned N. Korea, 'armada' headed to Australia (Reuters)
Threat of Carrier Heading to Koreas Wasn’t All It Seemed (WSJ)
Markets Start to Ponder the $13 Trillion Asset Gorilla in the Room (BBG)
Investors’ Nightmare Scenario Takes Shape in French Election (WSJ)
Venezuelan opposition to hold 'mother of all marches' against Maduro (Reuters)
U.S. says Iran complies with nuke deal but orders review on lifting sanctions (Reuters)
Ryan’s Best Hope to Avoid a Shutdown: Making Friends With Pelosi (BBG)
Pence says working with allies to put pressure on North Korea (Reuters)
Fox News Is Preparing to Cut Ties With Bill O’Reilly (WSJ)
China gathers state-led consortium for Aramco IPO (Reuters)
Le Pen Tries to Steer Far-Right Party Into Mainstream (WSJ)
Ferrari Roars Back in China as Rich Snub Xi's Austerity Push (BBG)
U.S. states considering alternative execution methods face legal hurdles (Reuters)
Homebuilders Could Be Losers in Early Test of Trump Trade Policy (BBG)
Missing Billionaire Has Ties to China’s Military (WSJ)
China sees higher risk of mass unemployment, pledges more support (Reuters)
The Life of an Apple Supplier Is Getting Even Tougher (BBG)
Barkindo says OPEC, non-OPEC committed to restore market stability (Reuters)
Insurance Customers Will Have to Get Used to Talking to Machines (BBG)

www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-19/frontrunning-april-19

[theMist]

Did a lot of soul searching, praying last night and the Spirit put these scriptures on my heart.  The Words are so Beautiful.
I love each and everyone of you at Faz and look at you like Brothers and Sisters.  I hope and pray that these words take root in your Heart and you find them edifying.

Matthew 22:37-40 (KJV)
37 Jesus said unto him, Thou shalt love the Lord thy God with all thy heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy mind.
38 This is the first and great commandment.
39 And the second is like unto it, Thou shalt love thy neighbour as thyself.
40 On these two commandments hang all the law and the prophets.

Matthew 6:33 (KJV)
33 But seek ye first the kingdom of God, and his righteousness; and all these things shall be added unto you.

Philippians 4:13 (KJV)
13 I can do all things through Christ which strengtheneth me.

Ephesians 6:12 (KJV)
12 For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.

Matthew 17:20 (KJV)
20 And Jesus said unto them, Because of your unbelief: for verily I say unto you, If ye have faith as a grain of mustard seed, ye shall say unto this mountain, Remove hence to yonder place; and it shall remove; and nothing shall be impossible unto you.

John 3:30-35 (KJV)
30 He must increase, but I must decrease.

Philippians 4:6-7 (NKJV)
6 Be anxious for nothing, but in everything by prayer and supplication, with thanksgiving, let your requests be made known to God; 7 and the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and minds through Christ Jesus.

Ephesians 6:11-18 (KJV)
11 Put on the whole armour of God, that ye may be able to stand against the wiles of the devil.
12 For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.
13 Wherefore take unto you the whole armour of God, that ye may be able to withstand in the evil day, and having done all, to stand.
14 Stand therefore, having your loins girt about with truth, and having on the breastplate of righteousness;
15 And your feet shod with the preparation of the gospel of peace;
16 Above all, taking the shield of faith, wherewith ye shall be able to quench all the fiery darts of the wicked.
17 And take the helmet of salvation, and the sword of the Spirit, which is the word of God:
18 Praying always with all prayer and supplication in the Spirit, and watching thereunto with all perseverance and supplication for all saints

1 Corinthians 13:13 (NIV)
13 And now these three remain: faith, hope and love. But the greatest of these is love.

[theMist]

New Rule of Trading for theMist

- Can hold position overnight for swing trade ONLY IF HIGHLY CONFIDENT in swing/momentum trade.  
I have found that holding for 2-3 days for swing trade (whether long or short VIX SCAMs) can be advantageous BUT will refrain going beyond that time frame
and will not hold overnight majority of time.  This also lines up with maintenance call timeframe for Scottrade  lol
And I don't have anyway of hedging overnight with Scottrade in case of overnight black swan so really have to be careful when I chose to hold overnight

I have been very good at seeing next move or two or even sometimes three in VIX SCAMs -- beyond that it can be very difficult to forecast and it is a new market every day

[theMist]

VXX

I knew VXX was reaching for the gap to 17.08 before it decides to make its next move
I expect VXX HOD to possibly be 17.08 to close common gap and possibly 17.21 to close morning gap
As for LOD, VXX can get down to 16.70 range

we'll see...

VXX Hourly chart
Showing possible next move -- Either this move in VXX turns into a speed bump or VXX is gearing up for a larger bottoming pattern.
I did lot of thinking, and for me what matters most in trading VIX SCAMs is knowing S&P direction, vix futures, vxx chart and in that order.
It was a toss up whether S&P chart comes first before VIX Futures and IMO S&P direction holds slightly more weight than vix futures but they are very close.
For example, VIX futures were in backwardation last week and up until yesterday.  Shorting VXX at 18 was a nice trade up until today and you would not have made that trade
if you were strictly going by vix futures which were in backwardation.  However, S&P bounced and if you had seen that, it made for a nice short VIX SCAM trade.

[theMist]

VIX Futures

I knew with April contract out of the way, we would go from backwardation and into contango
I also see spot vix backtesting to low 13s and is currently trading at 13.80 from high of 15 range

Big question is what happens after the backtest and can go either way and will be at possible inflection point
Keep in mind that this scenario can change back to backwardation in a blink

[theMist]

VIX daily chart

[huh]

I see the priority for trading VXX as S&P first by a wide margin, then VXX, then VIX futures on occasion, and then only for a very short time frame because of the adjustments always being made for monthly rollovers (as it did on 04/17)

Speaking of VXX chart, I do still expect its double bottom pattern target of $20 will play out once this downside gap is filled with today's open

[theMist]

S&P Charts

S&P Daily chart
If MACD Histogram tests that red line again then I expect S&P to roll back over with another leg down.  
If MACD Histogram continues to get bullish upticks and crosses back over zero line then market rallies back up to at least retest 2370 range IMO

S&P 2300 is still on the table unless SP 2400 (all time high is broken)
So far the S&P has been breaking triangle pattern to upside and downside and has been simply making larger Triangles
All this movement back and forth has pretty much produced sideways action

S&P Daily Chart



S&P 4 HR Chart




S&P Hourly Chart



S&P Weekly Chart

[theMist]

Apr 19, 2017 8:19:52 GMT -5 huh said:

I see the priority for trading VXX as S&P first by a wide margin, then VXX, then VIX futures on occasion, and then only for a very short time frame because of the adjustments always being made for monthly rollovers (as it did on 04/17)

Speaking of VXX chart, I do still expect its double bottom pattern target of $20 will play out once this downside gap is filled with today's open

I had a feeling you were going to take the Bear side and see this as a VXX bottom pattern

And I do see VXX at possible inflection point after filling gap to 17.08 and agree can go either way
that's why I covered this morning VXX short at 16.92

[huh]

I don't see sideways at all in S&P. Instead, I see a very well defined double-top. And see how that second top formed as a rounded top? (what I refer to as a POTUS pattern) And all of this is forming as an Island, and the downside target would confirm a Rising Wedge - and the break below those can be fierce (while leaving unfilled gaps)

IMO this is distribution

[huh]

I remember once hearing someone say that you know you're in a bull market when the market opens weak early in the week, then rallies into the end of it. And the opposite holds true for a bear market.

So I'm curious to see how this week closes

[theMist]

Apr 19, 2017 8:26:10 GMT -5 huh said:

I don't see sideways at all in S&P. Instead, I see a very well defined double-top. And see how that second top formed as a rounded top? (what I refer to as a POTUS pattern) And all of this is forming as an Island, and the downside target would confirm a Rising Wedge - and the break below those can be fierce (while leaving unfilled gaps)

IMO this is distribution

I am neutral right now in short term with a long term Bullish bias still and for me to agree -- the Bears have a lot more proving to do and so far they have fallen short
S&P is still in a long term BULL trend off the March '09 lows

Like I've said, let's see if S&P can even correct down to 2300 which is only 50 points away before we start calling this the BIG one

[theMist]

I will be back in few -- going to get breakfast

I made my one trade today and have no DTBP with Scottrade since I was leveraged to max lol

Tomorrow I will be able to trade
GL ALL

Be back in few

[theMist]

VIX Daily chart

Almost there and will be interesting to see what VIX does after getting down to low 13s -- indicators are starting to roll over and tick down
so far low of 13.46 is in (and is pretty close) and curious to see if that's it for spot vix and trends back up

[theMist]

VXX HOD so far is yesterday's LOD 17.19 and I should have saw that also as a possibility.  
So far VXX 17.08 gap has been filled like expected and fell 2 cents short of VXX 17.21 but trading day isn't over and VXX can still go green
and there ya go -- VXX closed morning gap and went green a little (VXX HOD 17.33)

Something that I should have pointed out.  Moves in markets are always in waves and is always just a question of the size of wave.
Nothing goes straight UP or straight DOWN.  

If you look at the move in VXX above its moving averages (and moving averages are in bullish alignment after strong move higher in VXX) and started to feel a little toppy (for short term), VXX needed to backtest and possibly fill the gap to 17.08
As soon as it dropped back down to its red 50EMA area (lower green arrow), it needed to bounce back up and backtest the 10ema and 20ema (higher up green arrow).  It will almost always make this move.  Good to keep that in mind when trading.

So, if you missed the initial move down in VXX, you could have shorted it on the upside backtest of 10ema, 20ema and you will see that VXX put in a lower high and channeled down

VXX Hourly chart

upload images freecertificity.com

[lasvegas77]

Tvix up over 4% with the snp down .16%. VXX to 20 and beyond!

[lasvegas77]

May future contract now is backwards. showing -.27%

[theMist]

roflmao Las Vegas

I was beginning to think you were on vacation