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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 8, 2017 17:49:15 GMT -5
based on what?
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 8, 2017 17:51:02 GMT -5
apparently ECB has a press meeting tomorrow at 5:30am est. That always makes this go one way or the other pretty strongly. That and the job numbers friday. Job numbers almost always plunges tvix. But this time may be different.
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Post by walnut on Mar 8, 2017 18:03:05 GMT -5
I just think that SnP will probably bounce. But it is risky enough IMO that I didn't try it haha
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 8, 2017 18:05:02 GMT -5
Futures started flat then slightly negative and then ripped up pretty quickly +16 now.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 8, 2017 18:06:02 GMT -5
I know where you are coming from. I probably won't get much sleep. But 99% of the times that I do trades like this it pays off way better than my scalps.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 8, 2017 18:07:09 GMT -5
I'm happy i wasn't using my standard tvix at least. I would be already hugely in the hole.
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Post by novie08 on Mar 8, 2017 18:09:07 GMT -5
also you pay 4-10% for hard to borrow shares I had no idea! That is absurd.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 8, 2017 18:10:21 GMT -5
that's APR. It's not so bad if you are holding while tvix is plunging but adds up fast when it isn't moving.
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Post by theMist on Mar 8, 2017 18:15:31 GMT -5
Las Vegas -
if you don't mind me asking - how much short are you and what average? on margin?
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 8, 2017 18:18:25 GMT -5
Might be slightly on margin but i have enough to cover it off site. it's probably the equivalent of another 5700vxx when you add it up together.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 8, 2017 18:20:36 GMT -5
i don't really know the average at this point but i bought xiv at the the time at 67.51.
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Post by theMist on Mar 8, 2017 18:21:25 GMT -5
The good thing is these end of day spikes have been head fakes and usually VXX gaps right down and doesn't look back. But I'll post the one wrench in the equation -- obviously being the S&P chart. But overall, I think you'll be fine. But just my 2 cents -- you are definitely shorting VXX way too late in the day and chasing when VXX is too low. Earlier on you would have gotten better cost avg. The projected move should be as I have drawn. free adult image hosting
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 8, 2017 18:24:00 GMT -5
I guess we will see. It's slowly creeping lower after hours already.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 8, 2017 18:27:09 GMT -5
Would be nice to see the futures up 100 late tonight so i can sleep. haha.
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Post by walnut on Mar 8, 2017 18:35:36 GMT -5
man I've been through that so many times haha
I'm still here but partially shell shocked
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Post by theMist on Mar 8, 2017 19:05:58 GMT -5
S&P Daily and S&P 15 min charts If you look at S&P Daily chart, we have indicators that turned bearish but we have some good support where I have arrow drawn -- rising support, horizontal support, and 20dsma. S&P 15 min If you look at the H&S, it does measure 2320 range, however, the RS is a lot shorter than the LS and pattern is not clean and is slightly slanted. Also, S&P has a lot of support area where that little circle is drawn and could bounce there and make more of horizontal H&S with a longer RS. That bounce lines up with support on daily chart BTW (SP2354ish). I believe S&P selling will be slow and controlled still and pullback will be with consolidation bear flag type of stuff which is good for being short VXX. When S&P hits support levels, VXX drops like a brick. And contango is still around 14% so I don't see them popping much further and a gap up in VXX tomorrow morning would possibly make for good short (averaging in of course). And all of this is absent an overnight black swan event of course. free upload picturesS&P Daily free picture upload
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 8, 2017 19:20:47 GMT -5
It would be ironic if i get out where you guys initiate a short.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 8, 2017 19:25:05 GMT -5
Although I might hold this into the job numbers friday possibly if it looks good.
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Post by theMist on Mar 8, 2017 19:28:31 GMT -5
It would be ironic if i get out where you guys initiate a short. lol - there have been times where me and Walnut have been out of sync
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Post by walnut on Mar 8, 2017 19:31:59 GMT -5
Tonight, Skynet flashes on and becomes self-aware. Sounds like you might be awake when it happens
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