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Post by birthmark on Feb 21, 2017 15:51:43 GMT -5
Welcome LasVegas. Feel free to contribute. Please note that this isn't a "I told you so" site.
GL
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Post by walnut on Feb 21, 2017 15:56:33 GMT -5
We've done well, but can't win them all
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 15:56:46 GMT -5
Rob I think I might be riding 8000 VXX over night ugh Ready to hedge with futures if it comes to it Definitely not a good day. Pissed off at Scottrade. As you know we've been nailing these moves and I've been using max leverage. Scottrade closed out my position without warning. I had a Fed call because I max out my trades. I think they closed it out because of that. they're supposed to call me back. Scottrade going buy buy now IMO. Need to use IB going forward. Too difficult to manage 2 brokerage accounts anyway.
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 16:02:08 GMT -5
So it turns out that my friend Pete over at the local Scottrade office never got to me in time to let me know that I needed to close out of some of the position. lol
That will seal the deal for Scottrade as I move over to IB completely.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 21, 2017 16:02:25 GMT -5
I've had Fidelity and scottrade close out trades for me before. Most often it's actually good they did because it often went much higher. There were a few times it didn't work out well though.
I'm seeing multiple up days of the vix and the market. The market is speaking. Is anyone listening?
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Post by walnut on Feb 21, 2017 16:03:00 GMT -5
man that sucks
IB gives notices if you are too over-margined, but then they will adjust positions also.
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 16:05:19 GMT -5
I've had Fidelity and scottrade close out trades for me before. Most often it's actually good they did because it often went much higher. There were a few times it didn't work out well though. I'm seeing multiple up days of the vix and the market. The market is speaking. Is anyone listening? This is a first for me and it cost me so far. Still have about 5k short VXX in Scott and have about 14k in IB still Looking to take some off the table in AH LasVegas77 -- Are you holding a small short TVIX position all the time? Hedged? Or do you mostly daytrade shorting them like we do?
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Post by walnut on Feb 21, 2017 16:05:40 GMT -5
When the VXX moves with the SP-500 it does make me nervous, the VXX is telling us something. I hope it stays in the channel.
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 16:07:36 GMT -5
When the VXX moves with the SP-500 it does make me nervous, the VXX is telling us something. I hope it stays in the channel. yep -- its bearish divergence and usually (but now always) acts like a leading indicator for things to come.
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Post by walnut on Feb 21, 2017 16:09:32 GMT -5
I'm out took a $3000 loss today.
took a 3000 loss last week then made 10,000 so it is nothing new
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 21, 2017 16:10:01 GMT -5
I day trade this mostly when it doesn't look like an optimal holding period more than a few hours. Typically, my biggest gains are from long term shorts on this thing. I covered those longer term positions a few weeks ago with regret. I'm waiting for a new optimal time to get into this. Typically that is when the vix has been up much more.
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 16:10:36 GMT -5
I'm out took a $3000 loss today. I gave back about 5k so far out of profits. Because of Scottrade.
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 16:14:29 GMT -5
I day trade this mostly when it doesn't look like an optimal holding period more than a few hours. Typically, my biggest gains are from long term shorts on this thing. I covered those longer term positions a few weeks ago with regret. I'm waiting for a new optimal time to get into this. Typically that is when the vix has been up much more. TVIX left some gaps behind on this run downward. S&P also left a gap behind on its stellar rise higher. S&P isn't even bothering to backtest and fill gaps with this run higher. It will not bode well for markets in long term. IMO The gap also shows on VXX which is unleveraged. To my surprise, VIX ETPs have gone this long without filling them which is very surprising. GAPs: VXX 23 range. TVIX $8 range
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Post by walnut on Feb 21, 2017 16:18:56 GMT -5
There is a 20 cent gap at 20.50
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 16:30:32 GMT -5
I day trade this mostly when it doesn't look like an optimal holding period more than a few hours. Typically, my biggest gains are from long term shorts on this thing. I covered those longer term positions a few weeks ago with regret. I'm waiting for a new optimal time to get into this. Typically that is when the vix has been up much more. What VIX threshold do you use for reshorting TVIX? VIX 20? Or do you have another way of determining when the spike in VIX ETPs is over? Also, not clear on this -- Did you ever post on TVIX YMB? If so, under same LasVegas77 name?
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 21, 2017 16:37:33 GMT -5
hey themist, Yes, I have posted under the same username on the ymb. I don't have just one indicator. I have several that i use in conjunction with general market conditions. I don't remember a time when the market acted like this ever during my own observations of the market since 2004. Generally when the market gets extremely overbought like it did a few days ago makes it difficult to make money shorting tvix from my personal experience. I will say, while I have definitely got caught in short squeezes, I was sleeping very well during the August 2015 major spike on the tvix because I had my own proprietary model tell me to get out and stay out. The market has definitely changed from what used to work trading wise during the last 8 years though. So im flexible and willing to adjust.
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 16:48:52 GMT -5
hey themist, Yes, I have posted under the same username on the ymb. I don't have just one indicator. I have several that i use in conjunction with general market conditions. I don't remember a time when the market acted like this ever during my own observations of the market since 2004. Generally when the market gets extremely overbought like it did a few days ago makes it difficult to make money shorting tvix from my personal experience. I will say, while I have definitely got caught in short squeezes, I was sleeping very well during the August 2015 major spike on the tvix because I had my own proprietary model tell me to get out and stay out. The market has definitely changed from what used to work trading wise during the last 8 years though. So im flexible and willing to adjust. I have a long term S&P large INVERSE H&S target of around S&P2460. S&P was staying within roughly a rising 12-13% range and then skyrocketed higher in a new channel that is rising at a rate of over 100% annually. Obviously, that can't be sustained. When S&P broke out over the old SP2300 high and gapped up over resistances, it was at an inflection point, turn back lower to backtest and fill the gap OR continue higher. Obviously, it continued higher. I've never seen or felt a market rise as much as it has since the elections and so broad based. It had the same feel of when markets collapse and enter real corrections BUT only the market was screaming higher. lol If we don't pullback and backtest and S&P continues higher to S&P 2460ish large Inverse H&S Target, then I put my Bear Hat on. And I'm sure it will be a time, when VIX futures maintain backwardation for a prolonged period of time. Something that we haven't seen in quite some time. See charts below S&P Daily
S&P Weekly image hosting sites
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Post by walnut on Feb 21, 2017 16:50:45 GMT -5
Definitely already harder to trade than it has been since September.
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Post by walnut on Feb 21, 2017 16:53:29 GMT -5
VXX needs to turn back down about here, or...
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 16:56:25 GMT -5
VXX needs to turn back down about here, or... Today was a total BS day. How we normally trade VXX didn't work. Markets up huge again and VIX SCAMs close green?! lol ttyl
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