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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 21, 2017 17:08:32 GMT -5
how many people are on this board? It looks like walnut and themist and someone named clinton?
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Post by lasvegas77 on Feb 21, 2017 17:10:46 GMT -5
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 17:13:52 GMT -5
how many people are on this board? It looks like walnut and themist and someone named clinton? There's also Huh who is a chartist like me. Then there's Novie, Jack, Birth and a few others. But that's the main crew. LasVegas -- Feel free to post your thoughts along with insights, analysis, going forward. Me and Walnut are the ones that only trade (shorting 95% of the time) the VIX ETPs (VXX, TVIX, UVXY). We call them the VIX SCAMs. lol Walnut is an ex stock broker with many years of experience with trading options. I'm just a home gamer. talk to you guys later -- have to run
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Post by walnut on Feb 21, 2017 17:25:23 GMT -5
There's actually a larger group here, but most just check in occasionally. But have been around for a long time.
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Post by walnut on Feb 21, 2017 17:39:37 GMT -5
I think that the vix curve looks fairly healthy right now. Before the 2015 "crash", the term curve was looking odd through part of July and early August before the event. As far as complacency, yeah I'd say there is a lot of complacency right now haha But the Vix scams are acting more nervous and often trading positively to ES lately which I think means something.
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 19:41:05 GMT -5
I really like IB but they are definitely more expensive than Scottrade. But far worth it. Much more powerful platform.
I do miss when symbols HIT new HOD or LOD they light up yellow. Trying to figure out a way to set it up that way with IB.
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 19:55:11 GMT -5
closing out my remaining VXX and partially filled TVIX buy to cover
tomorrow is another day -- will look to reshort them again
partial fill on TVIX short -- still holding 10k short overnight
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 20:24:32 GMT -5
Trendlines slightly different than mine BUT we both see the same Bullish large Inverse H&S patttern as the real driver of S&P price action. Just a question of how we get there.
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 20:51:18 GMT -5
VXX 1 min, 5 min, 15 min, Hourly, Daily charts I was looking for the move back down all day to lower white line (see 15min chart). We started to and then VXX bounced off 5min lower BB. Usually EOD pop in SCAMs is setting up for a gap down in morning The white channel is countertending back up and VXX is still in a descending channel (as seen on Hourly and daily charts) This is the possible move I'll be looking for tomorrow. See below VXX 1min chart VXX 5min chart VXX 15 min chart
VXX Hourly VXX Daily
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Post by theMist on Feb 21, 2017 22:00:56 GMT -5
S&P 15 min chart White steep rising channel is closer to Jim's. S&P left behind 2 breakaway gaps so far. At some point, they will have to be filled. Just a question of when. Normally, even a move back down to fill this morning's Breakaway GAP wouldn't concern me with being short the SCAMs. However, today VIX SCAMs traded UP with ES which is rare. Hedging or buying volatility whether via VIX options, VIX Futures, VIX ETPs, has been a losing bet all along. I don't see any reason at this point for that to change. IMO S&P 15 min post a picture
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Post by walnut on Feb 21, 2017 22:28:50 GMT -5
Great work Mist!
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Post by theMist on Feb 22, 2017 4:11:00 GMT -5
S&P Futures at +1. S&P Fair Value at -10.99 !! lol
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Post by theMist on Feb 22, 2017 6:29:44 GMT -5
Have to be careful -- VXX is outside descending channel in premarket (6:30am EST) and have to watch that doesn't turn into double bottom (confirms above 18.40). That green candle made outside of lower BBs yesterday can provide a strong bounce. Need VXX to get back into that large red descending channel VXX 15 min Premarket chart
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Post by theMist on Feb 22, 2017 6:55:09 GMT -5
S&P Hourly Futures Looks like S&P is trying to get back down to that lower dark blue rising channel support upload gifs
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Post by theMist on Feb 22, 2017 7:01:17 GMT -5
VXX outside of red descending channel and above white line rising channel resistance Need VXX to get back inside of red descending channel and back into that white rising channel Have to be careful that this doesn't turn into a double bottom pattern -- move above 18.40 would not be good
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Post by walnut on Feb 22, 2017 7:48:22 GMT -5
Kinda glad we got out.
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Post by theMist on Feb 22, 2017 7:59:31 GMT -5
Yep - that's the rule I try hard to really stick by. Get out of short SCAM position by AH close. Win or loss - don't hold overnight. One night/weekend, we will get a black swan and then be really thankful. But at least you have a way of being alerted and putting in conditional orders. I'm still looking into the conditional order part. Even though I still have 10k short because of partial fill. That's ok. VIX Scams should at least fill the morning gap up. IMO So, I'll be posting my new rules of engagement very shortly. Today's trading will determine whether or not I invoke them.
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Post by theMist on Feb 22, 2017 8:04:58 GMT -5
S&P futures are hitting support and normally SCAMs would drop back down hard. Yesterday was the first day they traded 'broken' and we need them to return to the usual 5% down days while S&P is down 10 handles! lol Are you charting VXX premarket? Real nice to have now with fstockcharts.
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Post by theMist on Feb 22, 2017 8:08:05 GMT -5
Keeping it real small going forward
4k short VXX in premarket at 17.94
still have 10k short tvix from overnight partial fill will increase that a position a little more but keep it small
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Post by walnut on Feb 22, 2017 8:12:00 GMT -5
Yes I am charting, have not sold anything yet.
ES looking a little droopy
On second thought it is looking ok
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