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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 12:37:52 GMT -5
The VIX is not at 40 yr lows really Novie. I meant to say something before but just let it go haha That guy needs to do his homework. LOTS OF LAUGHS - CNBC trader capitulated on his long VIX trade yesterday. And they're even making the argument that this really low VIX (I believe VIX is at 2 year lows) is the green light to buy the markets! lol Might be a good sign. Only one making sense is Art Cashin (who has his DOW 20K hat) on. He's concerned about the complacency as markets are making NEW HIGHS AGAIN!! lol Still holding 15K long TVIX looking for that morning GAP fill. I already broke my TVIX 5.30 stop out rule. Currently TVIX trading at 5.30 after hitting lod of 5.28. I still say some selling in S&P hits this afternoon. We'll see... CNBC - "this RALLY is the BIGGEST RALLY in markets after Elections since 1900" Hmm. I thought Brian Sullivan said vix is at 40 yr. lows. in that vid I posted. Will check when I have time.
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 12:53:35 GMT -5
Be careful though Walnut averaging in a VXX short at these levels (unless daytrading). Obviously, longer term you will definitely be fine and in the short term SCAMs can still drift lower and you can still be correct as well.
BUT VXX is making candles on 4hour chart COMPLETELY outside lower BBs and instead of popping back up hard -- can simply sidestep back within BBs. BUT IMO SCAMs are over due at least for a short term pop any day now. VXX should take out that GAP to 20.50 at minimum in short term. And so far, today is BREAKAWAY GAP #3 in VIX SCAMs since making the first BREAKAWAY GAP ON 1/4/17.
Also, S&P gapped up today and is trying to make a Head and Shoulders pattern (still needs confirmation to be valid pattern). And without validation, you can still make the case that its a BULL flag (without mast) for another move leg higher. Keep in mind - S&P still hasn't backtested this breakout (S&P2284).
S&P Head 2297, Neckline around 2292. S&P is still forming RS of H&S (currently at 2293 as I type) and is still above neckline (but still needs confirmation to call it a H&S pattern).
If neckline breaks w/confirming backtest then the pattern measures approx. S&P 2288. That should at least pop the SCAMs green for today if it plays out.
IMO and could be wrong for today. SCAMs still drift lower for a few more days. If start to see VXX making candles outside its lower BBs on daily chart, then it will be a screaming BUY IMO.
GL with short VXX trade I just don't hope your chasing out of emotion since we both missed yesterdays move. Obviously, its smarter to average in VXX short when they are popping higher. And of course, I can still be wrong. Just IMHO.
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Post by huh on Jan 25, 2017 13:11:04 GMT -5
Looks as if XLF will fill the opening gap, but I think it'll also fill the gap lower than that in 22.20's. S&P Futures should have strong support 2275-2280 now (across 12/13 & 01/06 highs). However, if it were to lose that then my next target downside target would be 2180 Market's just making an a$$ out of me lately while it takes my $$.
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 13:24:16 GMT -5
Looks as if XLF will fill the opening gap, but I think it'll also fill the gap lower than that in 22.20's. S&P Futures should have strong support 2275-2280 now (across 12/13 & 01/06 highs). However, if it were to lose that then my next target downside target would be 2180 Market's just making an a$$ out of me lately while it takes my $$. Your not an ass Huh. You're a very smart and gifted chartist. Knowing market direction is HUGE. However, knowing how to trade and manage risk is a whole school unto itself of which I am still learning. It's always a learning experience. Going long the VIX SCAMs is an extremely difficult trade to make and you have to nail the spike perfectly. If not, they make you pay dearly. This of course is assuming current market conditions with Contango. During a Bear Market or major correction, you can go long the SCAMs blindly and make money when VIX Futures are in prolonged periods of Backwardation. However, VIX Futures are in contango approx. 80% of the time. So going long them, especially holding for longer term is a losing position and the majority of the time you'll find yourself averaging in just to get your money back. When I realized my time frame for pop in VIX SCAMs was off and I was losing on the trade, I jettisoned out of it immediately and went back to daytrading and shorting the SCAMs. I made up the profits I gave back and made some money on top of it. By far, I personally have found that this is the absolute best way to play the SCAMs. But of course, you need to be in front of your computer all day long. And some of us rather spend time with those beer drinking you know whats! lol If you see a market pullback coming, best way to play it is to short SPY, FAS, TNA, etc. And I'm sure Walnut can help out with how to trade a pullback as well. He is far smarter and more knowledgeable than I am. With current contango, it takes an awful lot to make the SCAMs pop and the S&P selling has to be prolonged in order for them to really spike. So SCAMs only spike with hard selling in S&P. When S&P hits support or S&P rises, they drop like a brick. Knowing that -- under current contango - which is the easier trader? To short the VIX SCAMs or go long them? I think your finding out the hard way. BTW - I know how it feels to be putting your calls out there all day long and trying to trade at the same time. It puts added stress on you and can make a person emotional. And its not like we charge money for this stuff. You can also get caught up in arguments with others. It would be far simpler, even for myself, to just simply trade and make money. But I do enjoy helping others and my faith in the good Lord compels me to. I'm not perfect and I certainly don't get every call right and I feel bad if anyone loses money because of me. So far, thank the Lord, I've been nailing my calls. Hope this helps my friend. God Bless Rob-
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 13:40:20 GMT -5
BTW - You can scratch that small H&S on S&P that I said was trying to form and said needed validation. It's turning out to be a bull flag without mast.
This keeps up and SCAMs will drop even further
Watching S&P2300 and still holding losing TVIX long position for now. lol
TVIX currently trading at 5.29 and honestly amazed that TVIX hasn't traded lower yet
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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 13:52:47 GMT -5
Mist I'm gonna need to show you what I'm doing with this longer term short. Although yes I am disgusted as hell about yesterday, I don't think I traded out of emotion today.
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 13:56:51 GMT -5
Mist I'm gonna need to show you what I'm doing with this longer term short. Although yes I am disgusted as hell about yesterday, I don't think I traded out of emotion today. Thx. That would be great. BTW - your definitely having a better day than I am with VXX short. A little down but nothing to cry about over here. Final hour will be interesting. To tell you the truth, I'm absolutely amazed that TVIX is trading at 5.29 with markets still going higher as I type. That's an amazing feat for the SCAMs when you think about it. lol
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 14:15:05 GMT -5
This move IN S&P from yesterday and into today is practically straight up and vertical. An incredible move so far BUT it can't last. It's too steep. And it left behind a BREAKAWAY GAP and hasn't backtested at all after blowing through resistance levels. S&P Hourly
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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 14:24:22 GMT -5
So there is a group of people who short TVIX every morning premarket, so there is usually no shares available?
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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 14:25:44 GMT -5
Shorting the scams is better than selling crack haha
That comment is surely the jinx that's gonna end it...
Really this period has been unusually fantastic, last year was not this foolproof, and in the future it is gonna revert to a trickier market again.
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 14:29:54 GMT -5
Dumped the TVIX long position and switched to shorting it again for today. Gotta make up the small loss from earlier now.
Now looking for TVIX to test $5. An unbelievable move so far. This can't end well down the road...
So dumped the 15k long and now short around 27k 30k TVIX. A little late to the party for today.
Freaking SCAMs are relentless. Just keep keeling over and keeling over and keeling over.... lol
Contango even rose back up to 11-12%
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 14:54:15 GMT -5
To be honest, switching from long TVIX to short a little while ago may not have been a good strategy. Perfect day for me to get whipsawed as we enter final hour. We'll see..
S&P Hourly hitting upper channel resistance as I type and trying to put in topping candle (will know by 3pm EST) but needs confirmation which obviously won't happen today.
Trump back on CNBC again. It's every day...
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 15:02:32 GMT -5
Seriously need TVIX to drop back lower and make new LOD (currently 5.21)! Come on my babies! One more time for theMist and Walnut!
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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 15:04:09 GMT -5
Shorting the scams is better than selling crack haha That comment is surely the jinx that's gonna end it... Really this period has been unusually fantastic, last year was not this foolproof, and in the future it is gonna revert to a trickier market again.
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 15:08:17 GMT -5
Not now Walnut! Not today! Don't jinx it! lmao
I'm now 35k short TVIX trying to recoup a small loss from earlier and make some money today!!
By close, I will be out of position.
I'm hoping that ALL 5 BEARS that are left today cover their short S&P position. lol
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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 15:08:28 GMT -5
To be honest, switching from long TVIX to short a little while ago may not have been a good strategy. Perfect day for me to get whipsawed as we enter final hour. We'll see.. S&P Hourly hitting upper channel resistance as I type and trying to put in topping candle (will know by 3pm EST) but needs confirmation which obviously won't happen today. Trump back on CNBC again. It's every day... If you could just expand your time horizon a little, on the shorts. On your longs I have no advice haha
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 15:25:10 GMT -5
Come on my Babies!!! One more time!! Need TVIX to hit new lod!
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 15:26:22 GMT -5
To be honest, switching from long TVIX to short a little while ago may not have been a good strategy. Perfect day for me to get whipsawed as we enter final hour. We'll see.. S&P Hourly hitting upper channel resistance as I type and trying to put in topping candle (will know by 3pm EST) but needs confirmation which obviously won't happen today. Trump back on CNBC again. It's every day... If you could just expand your time horizon a little, on the shorts. On your longs I have no advice haha You mean past one day or 10 mins? lol
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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 15:27:43 GMT -5
Not now Walnut! Not today! Don't jinx it! lmao I'm now 35k short TVIX trying to recoup a small loss from earlier and make some money today!! By close, I will be out of position. I'm hoping that ALL 5 BEARS that are left today cover their short S&P position. lol 35k TVIX without doing the math that sounds like an incredible amount of 3x leveraged power.. to build or destroy ha you better be careful
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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 15:31:19 GMT -5
OK I did the math, that is over $550k worth of VXX, that is a lot
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