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Post by walnut on Jan 19, 2017 10:55:18 GMT -5
If VXX options really adhere to put-call parity as they appear to, there is one more possibility.
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Post by theMist on Jan 19, 2017 11:07:35 GMT -5
S&P is trying to breakdown out of that steep rising channel. It keeps testing that rising support and it should break. That steep channel is unsustainable. Question is - does S&P gap down hard tomorrow (Inauguration Day) and sell hard or does it kind of sidestep out of it. S&P Daily Chart
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Post by theMist on Jan 19, 2017 11:11:42 GMT -5
Walnut -
What does selling spy call situation look like? Also, did you get a chance to confirm bullish VIX bets for February? If not, its ok.
Not advocating a move now but was just curious. If/when you have a the chance.
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Post by walnut on Jan 19, 2017 11:23:28 GMT -5
I looked into the Bullish bets rumor and I didn't see much more that a tiny percent change at that time. But there was a little blip...
I looked at SPY call selling earlier this week. I'll look again in a few minutes.
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Post by walnut on Jan 19, 2017 11:32:12 GMT -5
SPY Feb 17
1 standard deviation out statistically 67% chance of expiring out of the money is strike = 231. It is overvalued by 12.% The premium right now is 58 cents.
2 standard deviations out 95% chance of expiring out of the money is the 235. It is selling for 13 cents and is 13.9% overvalued statistically.
Those 2 look like pretty good bets. The 231 might would need to be rolled over if it gets close. Don't let it get too close. The 235 almost for sure will be ok but sometimes not in a giant bull.
Those 2 std deviation calls make reliable money but they tie up large amounts of your capital in margin. And they don't make huge amounts of money.
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Post by walnut on Jan 19, 2017 11:46:41 GMT -5
The puts always pay way better than the calls. So I used to always sell put-call strangle spreads. The 2 sides would offset each other as SPY moved and it paid way better than just selling the calls. And I kept it at weeklies.
But we don't want to be selling SPY puts right now, no thanks
-------------- Looking these over I wouldn't sell SPY calls not near enough money in them.
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Post by walnut on Jan 19, 2017 12:28:11 GMT -5
Selling the weekly 2 std deviations out generates an annual income of about 5.5% lol
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Post by theMist on Jan 19, 2017 12:32:24 GMT -5
Walnut - Why is that I feel (and always felt) that ALL ROADS simply lead back to EXACTLY what I've been doing all along. Daytrading the VIX SCAMs (mostly shorting). lol How would you play this selloff then? I guess outright shorting FAS, TNA, etc. for a swing trade. Then wait until selling stops and reshort VIX SCAMs.
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Post by walnut on Jan 19, 2017 12:36:09 GMT -5
I get the same feeling...............
Keep your powder dry and sell 1/2 million dollars of scams after the crash. Leave a little cushion for if it bounces back up 20%. That is about it haha
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Post by walnut on Jan 19, 2017 12:42:47 GMT -5
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Post by theMist on Jan 19, 2017 12:51:11 GMT -5
lol - Walnut
This has to be one of the most boring trading days. A complete waste so far and good day to take day off.
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Post by theMist on Jan 19, 2017 13:35:30 GMT -5
I have to say, FAS looks ripe NOW for shorting for a swing trade over next week or two. So does UDOW, UPRO
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Post by walnut on Jan 19, 2017 13:42:33 GMT -5
I was just looking at the FAS chart
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Post by theMist on Jan 19, 2017 14:06:59 GMT -5
As long as we go into today's close weak, this would be as good spot as any to put in a short trade - whether SPY or FAS. You can always put in a stop just above today's high if low risk tolerance.
The SCAMS are starting to teeter back and forth. lol That short term pop is getting close. IMO
just bought 4k TVIX for quick trade. Not recommended. But should be fine with that GAP that needs to be filled. But its always a roller coaster ride riding long the SCAMs. Playing with house money here.
Better to short FAS, SPY
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Post by theMist on Jan 19, 2017 14:09:44 GMT -5
S&P support is breaking...chart to follow
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Post by theMist on Jan 19, 2017 14:12:31 GMT -5
S&P Daily Chart - steep rising channel support breaking
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Post by theMist on Jan 19, 2017 14:16:16 GMT -5
Come on my VIX SCAM babies! My 2 week gap fill call expires tomorrow. lol I might be slightly off a little with my timeframe for pop in SCAMs.
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Post by novie08 on Jan 19, 2017 14:16:23 GMT -5
The ITMS vid showed down before up with BAC, PM and GS.
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Post by novie08 on Jan 19, 2017 14:17:44 GMT -5
Come on my VIX SCAM babies! My 2 week gap fill call expires tomorrow. lol I might be slightly off a little with my timeframe for pop in SCAMs. I'm still holding...only $7 more to go!
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Post by theMist on Jan 19, 2017 14:19:52 GMT -5
Need to see some serious follow through with S&P selling to pop those SCAMs!
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