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Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 11:12:41 GMT -5
VIX Futures front month contango now at 20%. For VIX scams - Thats like carrying a 500lb person from the 50th floor to the 100th floor and you only make it to the 51st floor and fall back down to the basement. lol
I don't expect this much complacency to last forever though.
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Post by novie08 on Dec 19, 2016 11:18:26 GMT -5
Many thanks for your help and insights...I'll post if I can pull the trigger. I'm just not comfortable if I can't watch. There's a huge possum in my yard, wonder what that means, lol! I hope he moves along...
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Post by walnut on Dec 19, 2016 11:18:31 GMT -5
I have a sell order for VXX in at 25.18
I know not likely
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Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 12:08:46 GMT -5
Bear flag on vix scams. About to take another leg lower. TVIX currently trading at 9.22
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Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 12:26:04 GMT -5
TVIX about to trade in the 8s. Will take large chunk off table then. Short 21k
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Post by walnut on Dec 19, 2016 12:33:21 GMT -5
I'm not chasing it. But good for you, congrats!
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Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 12:39:53 GMT -5
You'll get a chance to reshort VIX SCAMS at higher prices in next few days. Today's gap down is an OPEN ENDED GAP. TVIX NEVER traded in 9.45-9.58 range. And the GAP is on VXX (non-leveraged) as well.
OPEN ENDED GAPS ALWAYS GET FILLED!
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Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 13:31:04 GMT -5
Another bear flag on vix scams
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Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 14:45:32 GMT -5
With Contango so high, TVIX just hugging descending channel line
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Post by novie08 on Dec 19, 2016 15:48:08 GMT -5
What is an open ended gap? I know what a gap is, Another stupid question...can you put in a limit order on a short? And a GTC sell same as a buy?
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Post by walnut on Dec 19, 2016 15:56:28 GMT -5
I got a little VXX scalp in the last hour at least.
Yes you can put in a limit order, GTC or day
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Post by jacksrbtr on Dec 19, 2016 18:38:35 GMT -5
Many thanks for your help and insights...I'll post if I can pull the trigger. I'm just not comfortable if I can't watch. There's a huge possum in my yard, wonder what that means, lol! I hope he moves along... So DON'T keep us all in suspense Novi - IS HE "PLAYING?" Bwahahahaaaa!
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Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 20:29:23 GMT -5
MINDING THE GAPS There are all kinds of GAPS - Common, Breakaway, Exhaustion, Open, Closed, etc. What I mean by an OPEN ENDED GAP can also be referred to as a BREAKAWAY GAP. For example, VXX made an ALL TIME LOW of 25.45 on Friday. Today it broke away or gapped down and hit a HOD of 25.34. So that means that VXX NEVER TRADED (IN ITS ENTIRE EXISTENCE) between 25.34 - 25.45. This is an OPEN ENDED or BREAKAWAY GAP and WILL ALWAYS GET FILLED. Even if VXX trades for the next few days at NEW ALL TIME LOWS in the 24 range, AT SOME POINT it will ALWAYS reach back up and fill the GAP between 25.34 - 25.45. That's how I am able to make those calls for a gap fill and to reshort just above the gap. Also, if playing the gaps in TVIX, UVXY, the GAP MUST EXIST ON VXX. WHY?! Simply because TVIX and UVXY are skewed by leverage and VXX is not because it is unleveraged. Same goes for charting FAS, TNA, DRN, etc. You must chart or check the underlying index as they are also skewed by leverage. With stocks, I've seen breakaway gaps go for quite some time before they get filled. However, with volatility breakaway gaps usually are filled within a few days. Anyway, hope this helps and hopefully soon the gap between my ears will get filled. LOL
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Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 20:40:47 GMT -5
BTW - I might add - Ever notice how the VIX scams sometimes trade with unusual strength even when the markets are screaming higher and even though contango is high?! That's most likely because they left behind a BREAKAWAY GAP. It will act like a magnet and hold them from dropping a lot lower until it gets filled.
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Post by walnut on Dec 19, 2016 20:56:57 GMT -5
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Post by walnut on Dec 19, 2016 22:06:05 GMT -5
For the record, I checked this idea:
"How about: sell VXX short, buy the third month out futures contract. think about it, short term and long term effects in good market or crash. It will follow the backwardation curve up as time passes, but your VXX will always be managed to be at the 1 month mark on the curve."
and it does not work well
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Post by novie08 on Dec 19, 2016 23:00:02 GMT -5
Somehow can't get the Minding the Gap post to copy here. That is really helpful...I like playing gaps but sometimes they just take way too long to fill...still learning, this is great info. Maybe I missed this way back when, but were you a professional trader Mist? I know walnut is an engineer and loves the numbers. Jack--I think that creature was under my deck...yikes! Maybe he spends the night, lol? It was so dreary today he probably thought it was nighttime. I'm not sure what they eat, hopefully not the two little dogs next door. Maybe he was after my garbage but I thought that was just the raccoons.
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Post by theMist on Dec 20, 2016 7:58:08 GMT -5
Not in the least. Was an I.T. manager most of my life. Always loved math, charts, numbers. There was a guy who used to post under the name Hammond. His real name was Jim. I'm sure a few here would remember him. I'm sure he's around still somewhere. He turned me on to Technical Analysis and I never looked back. But he only believed in charting patterns (drawing only lines on charts and identifying patterns) and used no indicators, moving averages, etc. I feel that is a mistake. Spotting patterns is huge but I feel using Bollinger Bands, moving averages, MACD, MACD Histogram and other indicators are extremely useful.
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Post by huh on Dec 20, 2016 8:14:30 GMT -5
I too am also a Padawan of Hammondkeys. Good to know there's more than one of us - and any Star Wars fan would know why that is.
Also built on that with things I learned from Oscar and a few others.
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Post by theMist on Dec 20, 2016 8:36:24 GMT -5
Huh - I remember when you first started out. You've become a Fantastic and Masterful Technician! And HUGE credit to you for all your dedication to TA and for keeping Fazination alive all these years.
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