|
Post by huh on Dec 19, 2016 7:58:35 GMT -5
10 things you need to know before the opening bell The world's oldest bank is trying to save itself. Monte Paschi is trying to sell stock to raise 5 billion euros, and if that fails, the Italian government is prepared launch a broader 15 billion euro ($15.7 billion) rescue plan for the banking system, a person close to the matter told Bloomberg. China's housing market is showing signs of slowing down. New-home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 0.6% month-over-month in November, down from the 1.1% growth experienced in October, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released on Monday. Japan's trade surplus narrows. Data from Japan's Ministry of Finance showed the country's trade surplus narrowed to 152.5 billion yen in November, down from 496.2 billion yen reported in October, as both imports and exports showed improvement. The Japanese yen is stronger by 0.6% at 117.22 per dollar. German businesses are growing more optimistic. "The German economy is in a festive mood," wrote Professor Dr. Clemens Fuest, the president of the Ifo Institute, after a survey of business conditions improved to 111.0 in December, up from 110.4 in November. The euro is weaker by 0.1% at 1.0439 against the dollar. Australia's 'AAA' rating is at risk. Standard & Poor's held Australia's long-term rating at AAA, but it said the "government's worsening forecast fiscal position, as outlined in its latest budget projections earlier today, further pressures the rating." The Australian dollar is down 0.4% at .7274 versus the dollar. Apple is going to war with the EU. The tech giant plans to formally launch a legal challenge against the European Union this week regarding the record-breaking $14 billion tax bill it received in August. Disney's "Rogue One" had a huge weekend. The movie raked in $155 million over the weekend, making for the second-biggest December opening ever. Stock markets around the world are mixed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0.9%) lagged in Asia, and Spain's IBEX (+0.8%) is out front in Europe. The S&P 500 is set to open higher by 0.2% near 2,261. Earnings reporting is light. Lennar reports ahead of the opening bell. US economic data trickles out. Markit services PMI will be released at 9:45 a.m. ET. Additionally, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak on the job market at 1:30 p.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is lower by 1 basis point at 2.58%. markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/10-things-you-need-to-know-before-the-opening-bell-1001614912
|
|
|
Post by huh on Dec 19, 2016 7:59:30 GMT -5
10 things in tech you need to know today 1. Apple is going to war with the EU over its record-breaking $14 billion tax bill. Senior executives claim the regulators ignored tax experts and corporate law in order to maximise the penalty. 2. Apple has set up a secret office in Berlin to "cherrypick" mapping engineers from Here, which is owned by a German automotive group. Apple has never publicly confirmed the office. 3. California's top law enforcement officer is threatening legal action against Uber over its self-driving vehicle program in San Francisco. The office of Attorney General Kamala Harris said Uber should park its semi-autonomous Volvo SUVs until it obtains a permit for use on city streets. 4. Alphabet's DeepMind unit could be expanded to 1,000 people. The AI research firm currently employs around 400 people in London. 5. Y Combinator president Sam Altman said he isn't convinced just yet that giving people free money will make them happier. Beginning in 2017, he and a group of YC researchers are launching an experiment in Oakland, California, where roughly 100 families will get $2,000 a month. 6. How Pebble, the hot startup that stole Apple's thunder, wound up in Silicon Valley's graveyard. Fitbit’s $40 million acquisition wasn’t a lifeline for Pebble, it was a fire sale. 7. Amazon's first drone delivery may not have been as impressive as it first looked. The Sun newspaper reported that it would have been quicker to walk from the Amazon fulfilment centre to the customer's house than to use a drone. 8. William Tunstall-Pedoe, the founder of a voice recognition app that was acquired by Amazon and used to develop the Amazon Echo device, has invested in a London-based art startup called Artfinder. The startup raised $2.2 million from Tunstall-Pedoe and venture capital firm Oxford Capital. 9. Ride-hailing app Careem said it has closed the first part of a $500 million funding round. The Dubai-based company has been backed by investors including Japan's Rakuten and Saudi Telecom Co (STC). 10. Nike has launched a $720 pair of trainers that are full of technology in a move that represents a significant shift for the sports brand. The HyperAdapt 1.0 is Nike's first self-lacing trainer for the general public. www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-today-december-19-2016-12
|
|
|
Post by huh on Dec 19, 2016 8:00:08 GMT -5
Frontrunning: December 19 Electoral college expected to officially select Trump (Reuters) China says discussing return of undersea drone with U.S. military (Reuters) Neutral PBOC Sets Up First U.S.-China Tightening Since 2006 (BBG) Wall St sleepwalking into Trump volatility surge (FT) Ukraine's largest bank rescued by state, prompts call for calm (Reuters) U.S. Factories Are Working Again; Factory Workers, Not So Much (WSJ) Senators call for probe of cyber attacks (Reuters) Koch escalates tax reform battle with report on gasoline prices (Reuters) As yuan weakens, Chinese rush to open foreign currency accounts (Reuters) China house price growth slows as lending curbs take hold (FT) Russia, Iran and Turkey to hold Syria talks in Moscow on Tuesday (Reuters) Japan eyes record spending, less new debt in financial year 2017/18 budget (Reuters) German Business Confidence Improves as Growth Strengthens (BBG) Aramco IPO Could Still Be in U.S. as Kingdom Plays Down Rift (BBG) Digital currency sales take off, but with no regulation questions abound (Reuters) Danone Sales Growth to Miss Target as Spain, Activia Falter (BBG) Bond Selloff Shows Risks of China’s Efforts to Restrain Credit (WSJ) A $55 Billion Manager Who Bought at Market Low Returns to Cash (BBG) Here’s how Obama can hit back at Putin over hacking (Reuters) www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-19/frontrunning-december-19
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Dec 19, 2016 9:17:51 GMT -5
Bought back all my VXX in premarket, hoping to see a morning bounce like VIX does to re-sell into
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 9:37:47 GMT -5
Shorting VXX is like shorting a falling knife when contango is this high. Dropping much lower today and should leave this mornings gap behind to fill another day. TVIX will be testing $9
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Dec 19, 2016 9:40:37 GMT -5
Yep buying back did not help me much. Maybe I'll get another chance to sell into it.
Contango almost 19
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 9:48:08 GMT -5
Head and Shoulders that I posted on Friday playing out. Taking some profits when hits bottom red descending channel line.
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Dec 19, 2016 9:51:51 GMT -5
Damn I got off the boat and missed several thousand dollars in 20 minutes
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 9:57:37 GMT -5
December is the most bullish month. DOW came within 35 points last week of hitting 20k. Should still reach for it again and try to take it out. Front month contango pressing 19%. When ALL your ducks are lined up like this you need to be all IN because it won't last forever. I have a S&P 2450 target but will definitely have some small pullbacks along the way. Just need to stay disciplined and not get greedy. I close out all my short VIX scam positions by market close and sometimes by extended hour close (8pm EST). I do this because I like sleeping at night and enjoy my weekends. I'm salivating when Vix scams are up in premarket. lol
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Dec 19, 2016 10:01:25 GMT -5
Well they weren't up in premarket today, I took a profit buying at 25.3. I thought they would bounce then drop all day.
|
|
|
Post by novie08 on Dec 19, 2016 10:01:52 GMT -5
Could we stay long XIV for a couple of weeks?
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Dec 19, 2016 10:05:39 GMT -5
Could we stay long XIV for a couple of weeks? I'm not sure anymore, I was short the scams for the last 14 weeks. But VIX is down to almost 12, the scams can come up any time. I hope that 2017 starts with a significant correction so we could be short the scams for 3 or 4 months again. Remember there's 2 ways contango can go down- futures drop or spot vix goes up.
|
|
|
Post by novie08 on Dec 19, 2016 10:15:04 GMT -5
The world's oldest bank is trying to save itself. Monte Paschi is trying to sell stock to raise 5 billion euros, and if that fails, the Italian government is prepared launch a broader 15 billion euro ($15.7 billion) rescue plan for the banking system, a person close to the matter told Bloomberg.
Maybe gold will hold today...
|
|
|
Post by novie08 on Dec 19, 2016 10:18:40 GMT -5
Could we stay long XIV for a couple of weeks? Or, we could have stayed short SPXU for 5 years, hadn't realized it was trading over $300, now just $19.89!
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 10:22:01 GMT -5
For Novie - Best to be short VXX, TVIX, UVXY. Short VXX if your not comfortable with 2X leveraged. They're all headed to ZERO over time. HOWEVER, AT TIMES YOU MAY HAVE TO STOMACH A HUGE MOVE AGAINST YOU. I've seen the VIX scams up as much as 30% in premarket. Those are the best times to take advantage and short it. And sadly, those are the times traders get burned because they have too large of a short position on overnight and are heavily on margin (GREED). They get margin called only to watch it fall down to new all time lows over time. Its those swings that catch traders off guard. Do I expect a massive pop like that before end of year. No, I don't. But I have found that the big moves to upside in the VIX Scams tend to happen overnight or over the weekend when futures trading is thin and volatile. When real selling hits, volatility tends to triple spike and real fear in the markets can last 2-3 weeks. VIX Central (www.vixcentral.com) is an excellent website for watching vix futures (yield curve, contango v. backwardation). Prolonged Backwardation can make the scams scream higher. Contango has opposite effect and makes them head lower. Vix futures spend approximately 80% of the time in contango. DURING A REAL CORRECTION LIKE THE ONE WE HAD BACK IN 2011 CAN MAKE SCAMS SCREAM HIGHER AND IF TVIX HAD BEEN AROUND DURING MASSIVE SELLOFF IN 2009 THEY WOULD HAVE ROSE APPROXIMATELY 500% DURING THAT TIME. THOSE ARE THE TIMES YOU CAN GET BURNED BEING SHORT VIX SCAMS AS VIX FUTURES STAY IN HEAVY BACKWARDATION CONSTANTLY. Also, read and understand TVIX prospectus. If your not comfortable with shorting TVIX because it is an ETN then short UVXY which is an ETF. Back in 2011, Credit Suisse played with share count. They suspended shares which has the opposite effect on an ETN. TVIX made a huge drop overnight (like 70%). Great if you were short. Lastly, here's some articles for you that are very helpful - sixfigureinvesting.com/2015/10/how-does-tvix-work/sixfigureinvesting.com/2016/10/is-shorting-uvxy-tvix-vxx-the-perfect-trade/
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 10:24:18 GMT -5
Have to keep in back of mind - TVIX left behind a gap this morning - $9.45-$9.66. Will probably fill in next few trading days. Should drop lower before then. IMO
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Dec 19, 2016 10:28:11 GMT -5
Those huge moves against are what I have been studying for a long time. The really big ones can't be managed, I have not found any way to deal with them. Options don't work as insurance, they are fairly priced, too expensive. If there were only a way to create a synthetic VIX index position.
How about: sell VXX short, buy the third month out futures contract. think about it, short term and long term effects in good market or crash. It will follow the backwardation curve up as time passes, but your VXX will always be managed to be at the 1 month mark on the curve.
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 10:32:43 GMT -5
I haven't really tried hedging TVIX short position. I know UVXY has options.
I don't keep a position overnight OR over the weekend. If I miss a 20cent move in TVIX to the downside and have to chase I'm perfectly fine with that. If VIX scams are up, I take advantage of it in premarket. I like to sleep at night. If I kept a position on at all times, it would be a small position and I would keep plenty of dry powder.
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Dec 19, 2016 10:38:18 GMT -5
"I like to sleep at night."
I got up at 5:30 to check the market and bought back at 6 am
When I came back to bed my wife said " you are going to shorten your life"
Actually I like messing with it. But losing money I don't like
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Dec 19, 2016 11:05:12 GMT -5
Another note to self - Last day for tax selling is 27th
|
|