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Post by huh on Oct 18, 2016 7:57:46 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Oct 18, 2016 7:58:11 GMT -5
I believe Oscar will change his mind about the "stable stock market". He says the market will simply see a "re-pricing, not a crash". There's one problem with that re-pricing: Simple math will determine what happens to stocks when rates rise
"Based on the standard financial model used on Wall Street, raising the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds from today’s 2% to 4% — in line with Fed expectations — would halve the present value of the stock market."
-Stanley Fischer, Vice Chairman, Federal Reserve And as I've mentioned, that 50% market pullback assumption is already showing in the indices' charts. So I guess it comes down to whether or not you define a 50% market pullback as a re-pricing, or a crash. But if a crash is defined as something unplanned or not by design, then I agree, it's not a crash. Now that the banks are well enough capitalized, the Fed will need the market to drop in order to get investors buying TBonds. Why do I believe this?  |
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Post by huh on Oct 18, 2016 8:00:30 GMT -5
It'll be really ironic if I'm right about this since it was from Oscar that I learned, at least in part, to identify these long term topping patterns. I saw a video years ago that Oscar did in retrospect on the 2007/2008 tops. The only difference this time is that these patterns are putting in final squeezes, all these H&S head tests (many of them the H&S-RS-Squeeze-To-New-Highs as foreshadowed two years ago)
I'm surprised that he's not yelling, "The sky is falling - or at least will be soon" based on what we learned from with those previous patterns.
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Post by clinton on Oct 18, 2016 8:29:22 GMT -5
I dont even see a re pricing
Im bullish and I dont know why.
I guess because Im insanely busy at work
everyone seems to have money to spend
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Post by huh on Oct 18, 2016 8:38:29 GMT -5
I don't think a market pullback would be a reflection of the economy
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Post by walnut on Oct 18, 2016 8:55:04 GMT -5
Seems like things been picking up some
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Post by clinton on Oct 18, 2016 9:16:38 GMT -5
everyone keeps saying dollar will rise
I think its topped.
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Post by clinton on Oct 18, 2016 9:24:18 GMT -5
.25% rate hike more than priced in at this point.
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Post by Herceg on Oct 18, 2016 9:36:34 GMT -5
I dont even see a re pricing Im bullish and I dont know why. I guess because Im insanely busy at work everyone seems to have money to spend Money to spend or Food Stamps to spend ? Many have forgotten what happened 10 years ago and some were too young to remember..............I agree with Huh, history will repeat itself as nothing has really changed and the job mkt. is a joke as I know many personally that cannot find a good paying job even after being in the mkt. for some time.......................Things will get worse and once Hillary (Skank) wins the election, they will have nobody to blame but themselves even though they will try........... JMO and BOL.............. |
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Post by huh on Oct 18, 2016 10:24:31 GMT -5
I'm only reading the charts. My opinion on the economy is opposite that of the market, at least for now. How the economy might be affected by a falling market may be a different matter, but I don't trade the economy.
I truly believe the Fed needs the market to fall so that investors will flee into T Bonds. That's how the entire gov is funded and most the foreign buying power has stepped away. And that's why individual retirement plans are being moved into T Bonds - that's something that's unprecedented and I believe validates my whole theory - a theory I laid out years ago.
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