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Post by huh on Sept 18, 2016 9:10:36 GMT -5
On 08/24 Tim Cook exercised an option for 1,260,000 shares of AAPL and over the next week he sold all of them. That represents 55% of his AAPL holdings at an average price of 107.46, for a grand total of 135,399,765.00.
Like I've said before, big $$ sells on the way up. When it crashes it'll be retailers selling, not the big boys. They'll already be waiting for their reload.
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Post by huh on Sept 18, 2016 9:10:52 GMT -5
Sooo ... everybody short now? Good. Gonna need those buyers at new ATH. Really? Yes. Definitely. Assuredly. No doubt about it. 100%... ...or at least I think so. S&P and gold still haven't hit their blow-off top targets (though oil now has)- and should add at least one more upside target, AAPL to ~116. ... I didn't even realize until now that AAPL saw >116 Friday. That completes this upside call for ~22%. If it climbs higher, anything above Friday's high is just froth (aka blow-off top) |
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Post by huh on Sept 18, 2016 9:11:06 GMT -5
All the VIX chart seems to indicate a strong possibility of a bullish gap'n'go for markets on Monday Looking at the VIX related charts again, I'm even more convinced there's a violent move in store for them. I personally believe everything since 02/12 in the market has been a blow-off top. So maybe we'll at last see the final blow-off top to this larger blow-off top (SEC ETF related news?) |
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Post by huh on Sept 18, 2016 9:15:00 GMT -5
An interesting note:
The all time monthly closing high in the Naz 100 was 4816.35 made more than 16 years ago in Mar '00. August 15th of this year was the first time that high was tested, and broken.
However, it has been unable to get a weekly close above that.
If NDX makes another new all time high, even if it's as high as 5,000+, but fails to see a weekly close over that '00 high, I think that would set-up a 30%+ down move
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Post by walnut on Sept 18, 2016 11:33:15 GMT -5
All the VIX chart seems to indicate a strong possibility of a bullish gap'n'go for markets on Monday Looking at the VIX related charts again, I'm even more convinced there's a violent move in store for them. I personally believe everything since 02/12 in the market has been a blow-off top. So maybe we'll at last see the final blow-off top to this larger blow-off top (SEC ETF related news?) I'm selling the VXX, and might some more tomorrow, seems like a big drop underway |
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Post by huh on Sept 23, 2016 15:35:30 GMT -5
An interesting note: The all time monthly closing high in the Naz 100 was 4816.35 made more than 16 years ago in Mar '00. August 15th of this year was the first time that high was tested, and broken. However, it has been unable to get a weekly close above that. If NDX makes another new all time high, even if it's as high as 5,000+, but fails to see a weekly close over that '00 high, I think that would set-up a 30%+ down move NDX finally got a weekly close higher than the Mar '00 record monthly close. Took 16.5 years (still haven't broke highest daily close of 5046.86) Doesn't mean I'm now long term bullish. I only think this will give us a better short entry, perhaps early next week. Once VIX scams hit their downside targets, I'll short it and take a break, letting the shorts ride for a bit. |
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Post by PoorHomey on Sept 23, 2016 21:28:37 GMT -5
Just stopping by to say Hi!!
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Post by walnut on Sept 24, 2016 0:36:35 GMT -5
Glad to see ya!
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Post by walnut on Sept 24, 2016 9:54:18 GMT -5
An interesting note: The all time monthly closing high in the Naz 100 was 4816.35 made more than 16 years ago in Mar '00. August 15th of this year was the first time that high was tested, and broken. However, it has been unable to get a weekly close above that. If NDX makes another new all time high, even if it's as high as 5,000+, but fails to see a weekly close over that '00 high, I think that would set-up a 30%+ down move NDX finally got a weekly close higher than the Mar '00 record monthly close. Took 16.5 years (still haven't broke highest daily close of 5046.86) Doesn't mean I'm now long term bullish. I only think this will give us a better short entry, perhaps early next week. Once VIX scams hit their downside targets, I'll short it and take a break, letting the shorts ride for a bit. What vix scam downside targets are you thinking now? |
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Post by huh on Sept 24, 2016 10:58:32 GMT -5
VXX down to 26.30's, or about 22% lower than here. It could get get a quick 2% pop first to ~34.50 for a gap fill.
All of this lines up well with a potential double-top in VX_F. If it loses 15, its downside target becomes a little under 12, or ~23% lower than here.
Might sound like huge moves for VXX & VX_F, but consider this: NQ_F (Naz emini futures) were only up .7% this past week, yet VXX was down 13%. And now NQ_F is showing the potential for another 3-4% upside from here. However, that bullish pattern in NQ_F is pretty weak. The bearish patterns in VXX and VX_F are solid, which is why I'm instead relying more heavily on the VIX scam targets.
VXX chart also showing potential for even lower to ~23. But I'm not seeing anything currently in VX_F or anywhere else to support it.
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Post by huh on Sept 24, 2016 11:06:43 GMT -5
A year ago, on the 4th Tuesday of Sep last year, the SEC announced review of leveraged ETFs. This review threatened the continued existence of at least the 3x's leverage ETFs.
Since then, the SEC has been pretty quiet. I wonder if they'll announce any updates, or even a decision, on the fourth Tuesday of this Sep which is coming this week.
JMO, but I'd be very cautious of 3x's leveraged ETFs in the near future, especially Direxion funds since they'll be most at risk. The majority of Direxion's ETFs are 3x's leveraged, whereas ProShares has relatively very few. An elimination of 3x's leveraged ETFs could theoretically wipe Direxion out.
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Post by walnut on Sept 24, 2016 11:30:39 GMT -5
"VXX chart also showing potential for even lower to ~23. But I'm not seeing anything currently in VX_F or anywhere else to support it."
That's just one months decay though, if contango stays fairly high as I expect.
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Post by walnut on Sept 24, 2016 11:31:54 GMT -5
A year ago, on the 4th Tuesday of Sep last year, the SEC announced review of leveraged ETFs. This review threatened the continued existence of at least the 3x's leverage ETFs. Since then, the SEC has been pretty quiet. I wonder if they'll announce any updates, or even a decision, on the fourth Tuesday of this Sep which is coming this week. JMO, but I'd be very cautious of 3x's leveraged ETFs in the near future, especially Direxion funds since they'll be most at risk. The majority of Direxion's ETFs are 3x's leveraged, whereas ProShares has relatively very few. An elimination of 3x's leveraged ETFs could theoretically wipe Direxion out. Jamie Dimon for president! |
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