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Post by huh on Jul 12, 2016 6:30:48 GMT -5
I have a whole bunch of long term downside targets I'll post here in this thread, but not until the market has hit what I believe will be it's peak, which may happen soon as today.
However, I believe NIkkei is already hitting it's last upside target. So it'll be the one to kick off this thread ...
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Post by huh on Jul 12, 2016 6:31:52 GMT -5
Nikkei Futures long term downside targets 11,800, then 8650. Currently 16,400
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Post by novie08 on Jul 12, 2016 8:19:58 GMT -5
Nikkei Futures long term downside targets 11,800, then 8650. Currently 16,400 ouch! Almost 50% correction and as we know, it takes 100% to get back to the high. |
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Post by walnut on Jul 12, 2016 8:27:15 GMT -5
Yeah I am watching with great interest, waiting for that epic buying chance
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Post by huh on Jul 12, 2016 8:38:36 GMT -5
Looks like I should've waited a bit longer on the Nikkei short call, but considering the risk/reward set-up, it's no big deal
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Post by dino on Jul 12, 2016 8:48:06 GMT -5
I'm "thinking" we have to get through earnings before any significant drop.
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Post by huh on Jul 12, 2016 9:01:18 GMT -5
I'm "thinking" we have to get through earnings before any significant drop. Yeah, I could see that. I am expecting a top perhaps today, but there is one thing bothers me - the math. I see quite a bit downside for VIX scams yet, more than what they should see if SPX were to hit my max upside target today. And only two things can possibly fix that differential - time (decay), or an overreaction (usually to some 'surprise news'). So that could mean more decay first (ie. another decent pullback before hitting that target) I doubt that will be the case, but we'll see. Really need to see VIX scams down hard today; disproportionately hard compared to the S&P upside. If we don't see that, then yeah, market will likely pullback before another run up. |
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Post by huh on Jul 12, 2016 9:03:42 GMT -5
Both VX_F and DX_F about to test key resistances here, so we'll likely know the answer to the "To Pullback, or Not To Pullback First?" question soon.
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Post by huh on Jul 12, 2016 9:17:57 GMT -5
FYI: by decent pullback, I mean something more than simply backtesting the previous all-time high ~2135
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Post by birthmark on Jul 12, 2016 10:56:24 GMT -5
Love this thread Huh. THx.
Still waiting for AAPL to pop.
GL
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Post by huh on Jul 20, 2016 7:19:48 GMT -5
Short MSFT, long term downside target ~41, currently 55.88 in pre
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Post by huh on Jul 20, 2016 7:46:25 GMT -5
Short TWTR, long term downside target ~9.50, currently 18.55 in pre
(crazy to think that this one is already down ~75% since Dec '13)
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Post by walnut on Jul 20, 2016 8:36:02 GMT -5
Twtr expects shareholders to wait until their grandchildren are grown before they ever make any money.
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Post by novie08 on Jul 21, 2016 7:31:06 GMT -5
Twtr expects shareholders to wait until their grandchildren are grown before they ever make any money. Always have felt it was held up for political purposes. Oh what a mess we've become.  |
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Post by huh on Jul 21, 2016 8:36:32 GMT -5
Short HON, long term downside target ~75.00, currently trading 119.76
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Post by huh on Jul 21, 2016 8:39:48 GMT -5
Short BABA, long term downside target ~53, currently trading 84.79
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Post by huh on Jul 21, 2016 10:01:56 GMT -5
Short TACO, long term downside target 6.50, currently trading 10.91
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Post by huh on Jul 27, 2016 13:46:33 GMT -5
Short TWTR, long term downside target ~9.50, currently 18.55 in pre(crazy to think that this one is already down ~75% since Dec '13) If followed this TWTR short play, and looking for a swing trade, look to cover the short ~15.65 for 15%+ and long/wait to reload short. Ideal long exit/reentry would be ~17.75 *I won't be posting swing updates on these short plays often since they are long term downside targets, but this one seemed worth mentioning because the market probably hasn't topped yet - HON, NK_F and some of the others may bounce as well, but the %'s are small in comparison |
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Post by huh on Jul 27, 2016 15:13:02 GMT -5
Short GRPN, long term downside target .40's, currently trading ~4.75 in AH's
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Post by huh on Jul 29, 2016 9:39:56 GMT -5
Short MSFT, long term downside target ~41, currently 55.88 in pre See the island H&S forming in MSFT over the last few days (since 07/20)? Maybe it squeezes it for a slightly higher high, but this one's just about done. And so is the whole market. You won't believe some (or any) of the downside targets I'll be posting here very soon. |
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