BEARISH WEEKLY CHARTS

[huh]

From SUNE thread:

Apr 1, 2016 21:43:46 GMT -5 huh said:

Here's the scary thing. Take a look at SUNE's weekly chart. Huge double-top. There's quite a few charts out there that look eerily similar. Their targets may not be quite as low, but still huge % losses from here -- ABX, FCX, X - just to name a few with X's in their names - even NFLX, which isn't a double-top, could drop to around $20 from here, or more than 80%, and still be in a bullish up channel!

Many waiting for a good sized pull back are going to learn first hand the old adage; be careful what you wish for.

After posting this, I got to thinking about all the bearish weekly charts out there. I could literally post dozens and dozens of them, but I'm simply too lazy. I'll show a few significant below and leave it at this; If market sees a strong up move next week with SPX to 2092-2094 (double-bottom target), or even above that (blow-off top), I think it'll be time to play everything against their bearish weekly charts.

[huh]

S&P

Large H&S and this recent run is the H&S-RS-Squeeze-To-New-High portion of it. Remember my call for that exact pattern to be the one to end this bull market?

[huh]

LQD - expect resistance 120.75-121.25

Large Double-Top consisting of multiple H&S'

[huh]

AAPL

Large H&S got squeezed and formed into a POTUS. Now likely to be followed by yet another POTUS. Major resistance ~115.00.

[huh]

TSLA

Large possible H&S within LT bullish channel, but only looking at downside target using the relatively small Double-Top

[huh]

NFLX

Zoomed chart out some to show its LT up channel

[huh]

IWM

Squeezing a H&S that was preceeded by a Double-Top. Resistance now 112.50-114.00.

[huh]

That's a few charts, and by no means the worst of them

[huh]

JNJ

Can't forget one of the "recession-proof" stocks. Large H&S-RS-Squeeze-To-New-Highs (which in effect creates a large double-top)

[huh]

If I sound incredibly bearish now, it's because, well, I am. At least starting with the indices just a little higher from here which could come as early as this next week.

When the ES was trading ~1900, I pointed out the potential double-bottom for it to reach 1995-2016.

When IWM was trading ~97.00, I said:

Feb 16, 2016 9:03:00 GMT -5 huh said:

C'mon bulls, wake up. IWM should be able to squeeze to at least ~108.50, perhaps even 112.50. Although those are big moves from here, they'd still only keep IWM in the downtrend (bearish pattern backtests and gap fills)

Well they are since up 8% and 17%, respectively. And now both are within 1-2% of hitting those upside targets (although they could exceed those with a blow-off top). And IWM, generally a leading indicator, is still ~14% off its high of last year. Also, I did that post a year and a half ago about the possibility of a H&S-RS-Squeeze-To-New-Highs ending this bull market, and we've not only seen that develop in many names and sectors out there, but the S&P is almost near to completing that exact pattern now. And an interesting note - since I posted that back in Nov '14, that was the exact high for transports, generally another leading indicator. That sector as a whole is down ~16% since.

So although I've had a bearish long term outlook for the market as a whole, I haven't been only a permabear as there has been a method to my madness.

Yesterday I mentioned a few of the sectors and names I thought would likely contribute to the final leg up. And that leg up could now be limited to as short as only a day or two.

On the way down, although I think all sectors will be negatively affected, the technology sector may be disproportionately so. Not sure why, but that's what the charts seem to indicate. Maybe it's because of the high p/e's in things like biotechs and semiconductors. Of course other sectors will be hit hard, housing, banks, shipping, etc.

And even though energy-related sectors have already been hit hard, they too may feel it if oil does drop to ~15 as its chart seems to indicate. However, I do believe that the energy sector and perhaps the pm's and miners will bottom before the indices - exactly what happened in the 2008/2009 bottoms.

[huh]

So that's my happy thoughts for this weekend.

I noticed the other day that I'm now over 13,000 posts here in this forum, or ~61% more than the next highest poster here (yikes!). I think it's about time I started shutting up and let others chime in.

As I've said all along, I had planned to keep posting at least until the bull market top was in. And trust me when I say, that's taken A LOT longer than I originally anticipated. Besides, I don't intend to be posting "downside target this and that" day after day. I've noticed an odd psychological tendency in trading; traders don't like bears. I think they somehow blame the bears for losing money on the long side. [shrug]

So I'll still be around, and try to point out any upside potentials out there. But remember this:

Downtrending stocks can dead cat bounce for backtests and FIB retracements (recent ie. SUNE). They can also form short term bullish patterns to hit those dead cat bounce targets (recent ie. MNKD). But stocks don't bottom until a well defined bottoming pattern forms. And I can't think of a single, recent example of this occurring.

[birthmark]

I love your posts Huh and I've learned a bunch.
I truly value your charts and analysis. ANd I do like your Bear views.

Hope you keep posting.

GL

[novie08]

Apr 2, 2016 8:16:22 GMT -5 huh said:

That's a few charts, and by no means the worst of them

Those lows look awfully scary...thinking they don't come this year at least not until after November. At this point, my only question is will DJA hit 23000 first or much later. I'm hoping later so I can make good use of that cash I have coming. Best of luck to everyone and please keep posting Huh. If I knew anything, I would post, lol. And everyone stay well!!!!!