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Post by huh on Dec 9, 2015 23:44:24 GMT -5
novie08 (before you read any futher, jump to my last post first) I was going through some utility dividend paying stocks and I have to say, a lot of the charts look pretty bad - actually, awfully bad. However, after quickly glancing at about 100 of their charts I did see a few who's charts look like they may have some upside yet, even while paying a dividend. Do you know anything about any of these? Basically these are the ones that at a glance appeared to have potential bullish patterns either already confirmed, or more often, still building and currently sitting on or near support. Any charts that looked like large topping patterns or where I didn't see an easily identifiable bullish pattern I simply skipped... SPKE (confirmed bullish pattern) JE (very close to confirmation) ARTNA (very close to confirmation) NJR (not confirmed yet, but on support) EE (not confirmed yet, but on support) UTL (iffy, a ways yet from potential bullish pattern confirming, but right on support now) I don't know anything about any of these. I didn't even check their dividends, I was simply looking for utilities that looked to have really good chances of upside from here. But check them out - their dividends, where at what they do, etc. - and let me know if you want to take a closer look at any of their charts and potential upsides (& risk/reward)
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Post by huh on Dec 10, 2015 8:39:21 GMT -5
Before getting deeper into their charts, I'd want to get a sense of the sustainability of their dividends. So first, I'd look at their market caps and eliminate any of the really small ones (<$200M) only because their pps could be more volatile and a smaller company would likely have more trouble sustaining their dividend during an economic downturn: Market Caps:SPKE $58M JE $1B ARTNA $232M NJR $2.5B EE $1.5B UTL $490M So dropping SPKE from the chart analysis. Next, I'd look at their last 3 years revenues and profits. What I'm looking for is not so much declining profits, especially if due to a one-off expense, but more importantly any company that has both declining profits and declining revenue. That could be a warning flag: JE Revenue: $3,076,147 $3,202,368 $2,959,418
Oper. Income: $83,706 $89,816 $32,155
Net Income: ($350,339) $124,069 $515,605
*I can't make sense of their last year financials, but I'll chart it anyway. Be sure to take a closer look at this one's income statement before investing in them.
ARTNA Revenue: $72,465 $69,073 $70,563
Oper. Income: $22,421 $20,072 $22,471
Net Income: $9,506 $8,301 $9,846
*Appears solid
NJR Revenue: $2,733,987 $3,738,145 $3,198,068
Oper. Income: $248,451 $201,190 $159,231
Net Income: $180,960 $141,970 $114,809
*Although this company seems to do a good job of managing expenses relative to revenues, that big hit to last year's revenue is worrisome. Dropping this one.
EE Revenue: $917,525 $890,362 $852,881
Oper. Income: $151,163 $165,635 $168,658
Net Income: $91,428 $88,583 $90,846
*Appears solid
UTL Revenue: $425,800 $366,900 $353,100
Oper. Income: $60,000 $53,500 $47,500
Net Income: $24,700 $21,600 $18,200
*Appears solid - the best financials & growth of this group
So also dropping NJR from the list. Again, you can look closer at them and let me know if you want a chart for them. They do have a pretty solid potential bullish pattern, but a few % down from here and it would all turn bearish anyway. Also, although I'll chart JE, look into them closer. Some funny accounting stuff their last fiscal year. So we'll look at the charts for: JE ARTNA EE UTL |
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Post by huh on Dec 10, 2015 8:54:08 GMT -5
JE  Because of the odd financials noted above on this one, and because of where it sits in its FIBs after a 4yr downtrend, I wouldn't buy this one until over that upper line (>7.47). In that case, upside potential could be ~14.00, or ~87% higher. This one is really sort of iffy though. That last high was a 76.4 FIB from the high that last touched the upper line. So it could also just as easily pullback from here, and even if it does, I'd still wait for the breakout higher. Buying right here would create too large of a stop loss. SUMMARY: Market Cap: $1B Current Dividend Yield: 5.3% Buy if >7.47 Stop: <7.20 (4%) Potential upside: ~14.00 Potential Return: ~87% Risk/Reward: 1:21* (would definitely have to follow this one close with raising stops - and that's only IF it does breakout higher - the 4yr downtrend makes that iffy) |
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Post by huh on Dec 10, 2015 9:26:53 GMT -5
ARTNA  What I like about this one is that it has RISEN since 2011 - and notice how it held that 2011 high as support? Also it looks like it could be typhooning for higher. The downside is that there may not be a whole lot of upside. Look at a closer view of that breakout:  What's interesting about this is that if it pulls back a little more, down to ~25.45, it not only would give a better entry but would also create a higher target to ~30.25 (grey line) because of the iH&S it would form. If it doesn't pullback to there, I'd wait for a break over the higher FIB which would occur @ 26.55, but then I'd use the lower of the two upside targets, in this case the 28.93 (red line). SUMMARY: Market Cap: $232M Current Dividend Yield: 3.44% Buy @ 25.45 Stop: <25.20 (1%) Potential upside: ~30.25 Potential Return: ~19% Risk/Reward: 1:19 Or, Buy if >26.54 Stop: <26.28 (1%) Potential upside: ~28.93 Potential Return: ~9% Risk/Reward: 1:9 Current Dividend Yield: 3.44% |
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Post by huh on Dec 10, 2015 9:35:55 GMT -5
EE  You can see the risk right away with this one - that recent high was a 76.4 FIB from last year's December high. So although the risk/reward looks good, could get stopped out pretty quick from here if it fails the potential upside pattern. For a buy here, I will use a stop of the 76.4 FIB from the recent low. SUMMARY: Market Cap: $1.5B Current Dividend Yield: 3.17% Buy here @ 37.07 Stop: <36.70 (1%) Potential upside: ~47.50 Potential Return: ~28% Risk/Reward: 1:28* (but as I said above, could get stopped out pretty quick with this one) |
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Post by huh on Dec 10, 2015 9:47:06 GMT -5
UTL  Like ARTNA, this one has been in a longer term uptrend. And at first glance it looked pretty bullish (at least compared to most names out there). However, it's been pretty sloppy recently along this current support. So I'd wait not only for a move back into the potential pattern, but also over the highest FIB from the recent high, which in this case would be >35.60. This one does seem to have a low chance of getting back into the buy zone. SUMMARY: Market Cap: $490M Current Dividend Yield: 4% Buy @ 35.61 Stop: <35.25 (1%) Potential upside: ~45.82 Potential Return: ~29% Risk/Reward: 1:29* (low chance of actually hitting the buy target) |
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Post by huh on Dec 10, 2015 9:52:36 GMT -5
I hope this helps some. After glancing at so many dividend company charts, I feel for you. There's a lot of ugly out there - I mean like 30%+ drops to come yet kind of ugly. After completing these, I wish that there were some higher yeilders in this list. But I purposely didn't look at yields before choosing which to check out further because I didn't want to have any bias when looking at their charts (I didn't check the yields until after I'd done everything else). If you do see a higher yielder and want to look at its chart, just let me know. And as is usually the case, my stops may be way, way too tight.  |
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Post by walnut on Dec 10, 2015 10:14:15 GMT -5
May try some dividend capture trades this coming week. "They" say that it doesn't work. I have always wondered. I don't want to hold anything very long right now
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Post by clinton on Dec 10, 2015 10:17:30 GMT -5
Energy sectors
I used to love these stocks
I just bought a whole bunch of LED light bulbs at lowes
2 bulbs for $3.90
Im switching most of my home over to LED, energy consumption on these are impressively small
I have no idea how to play energy sectors any more
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Post by huh on Dec 10, 2015 11:02:27 GMT -5
Another (and slightly better) option for JE:
Buy if >7.22
Stop: <6.95 (4%)
Potential upside: ~14.00
Potential Return: ~94%
Risk/Reward: 1:23.5
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Post by huh on Dec 10, 2015 13:21:15 GMT -5
And after all this...EE already fell through support, so it's out of the list. But even worse, UTL already fell through the stop after my recommendation to buy. So Novie, by the time you read this, simply trash it all. It apparently is (and was) a waste of time.  |
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Post by novie08 on Dec 10, 2015 22:47:59 GMT -5
And after all this...EE already fell through support, so it's out of the list. But even worse, UTL already fell through the stop after my recommendation to buy. So Novie, by the time you read this, simply trash it all. It apparently is (and was) a waste of time. I am overwhelmed by your generosity of time and spirit. Thank you so very much! I was gone all day so just now seeing this. I belong to an organization that honored 5 Vietnam Vets and their wives today...two Lt. Commanders, one Navy pilot who was shot down 3 times and survived and another pilot who spent 7 yrs. in a N. Vietnamese prison(he looks wonderful) and one more who was one of only two survivors of his Marine platoon(they were scouts). Very, very inspirational. Although I have so many issues with our constant wars, these men were drafted and served honorably. |
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Post by clinton on Dec 11, 2015 1:19:48 GMT -5
I just paid $19 to UPS a small box to vegas 9 lbs
oil has never been cheaper
Me thinks shipping stocks and trucking companies will probable have good earnings for the next 12 months
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Post by huh on Dec 11, 2015 14:36:40 GMT -5
I just paid $19 to UPS a small box to vegas 9 lbs oil has never been cheaper Me thinks shipping stocks and trucking companies will probable have good earnings for the next 12 months UPS would flip bullish if it moves >98.37 now |
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