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Post by novie08 on Aug 13, 2015 20:31:31 GMT -5
DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17408)
Posted August 13, 2015, 7:51 pm
EDT
Bearish signs mountWhen a trend exceeds a Hidden Pivot target, we usually infer that it will continue, often following a reaction move in the opposite direction. Notice in the chart that the Dow Industrials decisively exceeded a 17,251 downside target this week that has been nearly three months in coming. The target itself is moderately compelling, since the pattern that produced it is a good one although not perfect. According to the Hidden Pivot Method, the most reliable patterns begin with A-B impulse legs that have exceeded two prior highs or lows; in this case, the A-B leg exceeded only one external low. Still, the D target should have evinced at least some support in the form of a visually obvious bounce. The fact that it didn’t and that the eventual bounce came from a low 125 points beneath the target implies there will be another leg down, possibly of greater magnitude than the one that has occurred so far.
The bearish implications of this picture would increase significantly if the Dow were to breach the ‘external’ low at 17037 recorded last February without having rallied above this week’s so-far high, 17629. At that point we would have a textbook impulse leg with enough imputed power to imply that a bear market had begun. I believe it already has, based on late April’s peak in the NYSE advance/decline line and some other technical factors. However, a swoon exceeding 17037 would offer strong confirmation of this. Accordingly, I’ve set an alert on my chart at 17037. From a trading standpoint, we will look to short into rallies like Wednesday’s, using their midpoint pivots and D targets and tight stops. By that criterion, trading in DIA or with put options, Thursday’s high was a short at ‘p’ off this pattern from the 15-minute chart: a=17147.51 (8/12 at 12:15 p.m. EDT; b=17423.90 (3:45 p.m.). We’ll continue to look for short-entry set-ups intraday, but you should come to the task understanding that the best such opportunities will necessarily occur at times when you feel most uncomfortable exploiting them.
His 17,251 almost exactly matches Armstrong's 17,253. I am posting this b/c I couldn't get the link to work. GL everyone.
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Post by jacksrbtr on Aug 14, 2015 5:15:51 GMT -5
Thanks Novi!!!
That last statement of his about the best trading opp is certainly a good one...
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Post by novie08 on Aug 16, 2015 21:03:23 GMT -5
Read the AMZN call today...AMZN – Amazon (Last:531.80)
Posted August 16, 2015, 6:03 pm
EDT
AMZN bull market not over yetI classify AMZN as a ‘lunatic’ stock because it has been deliberately priced so that its institutional sponsors can manipulate it, sometimes violently and to their great advantage, with no interference from retail riff-raff. But it is also one of the few high-fliers that I actually like — a company that has methodically been building a stranglehold on retail that eventually will be nearly impervious to competition. (Just watch as Uber struggles in vain to steal a piece of Amazon’s delivery business.) Under the circumstances, it’s easy to imagine that the pattern shown in the chart is a consolidation — which is to say, a prelude to another powerful leg up. If so, the stock would trip a conventional buy signal at 542.90 (i.e., the green line); whereupon it would become a decent bet to reach the 571.84 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown, or even D=629.71.
That would add about 18% to AMZN’s valuation, presumably while leading the broad averages to new all-time highs. It is only because the charts of AMZN and a few other world-beaters, including Chipotle and Netflix, look so promising that I am hesitant to say that the bull market is over. That doesn’t necessarily mean these stocks will reach their D targets; indeed, they could fail at their respective midpoint or p2 pivots, well shy of being maxed out. But it seems reasonable to infer that at least a moderate rally lies ahead, with commensurate gains in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index. Permabears should take note — or better yet, hedge their bets with a long position in this vehicle. It stands to be a high-beta gainer if there is yet life in a bull market that has been looking its age for quite a while.
Once again, it won't let me copy/paste the link. This fits with your bulls scenario Huh. I've been waiting for "the correction" for well over a year now.
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Post by huh on Aug 17, 2015 7:39:43 GMT -5
...This fits with your bulls scenario Huh. I've been waiting for "the correction" for well over a year now. I'd be hesitant about a long in AMZN here. It's already hit the upside targets I expected. I'd wait for a break over the top of it's channel, or, and more likely, a test of the bottom of the channel. That sits about 25% lower than here ~400.  But don't worry about what it might do to the Nasdaq index if it falls. I'm sure another tech name or two will pick up the slack (uh, TSLA? MSFT?) |
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Post by huh on Aug 17, 2015 8:58:37 GMT -5
Small topping pattern in AMZN, first downside target 522.75. But I'd expect it to be followed by bearish continuation patterns.
Resistance now ~530
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Post by novie08 on Aug 17, 2015 11:54:13 GMT -5
Hmm. Hit 527 and change...will see whether 530 holds.
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Post by novie08 on Aug 25, 2015 8:40:01 GMT -5
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Post by novie08 on Aug 27, 2015 8:11:30 GMT -5
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Post by novie08 on Sept 1, 2015 20:20:27 GMT -5
Dow Looks Set to Plunge Anew Posted Tuesday, September 1 0 comments My best case calls forThe Dow was down 550 points at Tuesday’s lows, but it looks like it has even farther to fall. One needn’t be a chartist to ‘feel’ the weight of the downtrend in the accompanying chart. It implies the Indoos are about to plunge to at least 15596, a ‘Hidden Pivot’ midpoint support. That’s 462 points beneath Tuesday’s settlement price, a fall almost exactly equal to Tuesday’s. There are three tradable levels implied, long or short, and I’d suggest checking out the current E-Mini S&P tout if you’re keen on profiting from the move. www.rickackerman.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/My-best-case-calls-for.jpgSorry it won't let me print the chart but you can see his fibs. |
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Post by jacksrbtr on Sept 2, 2015 5:36:59 GMT -5
Dow Looks Set to Plunge Anew Posted Tuesday, September 1 0 comments My best case calls forThe Dow was down 550 points at Tuesday’s lows, but it looks like it has even farther to fall. One needn’t be a chartist to ‘feel’ the weight of the downtrend in the accompanying chart. It implies the Indoos are about to plunge to at least 15596, a ‘Hidden Pivot’ midpoint support. That’s 462 points beneath Tuesday’s settlement price, a fall almost exactly equal to Tuesday’s. There are three tradable levels implied, long or short, and I’d suggest checking out the current E-Mini S&P tout if you’re keen on profiting from the move. www.rickackerman.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/My-best-case-calls-for.jpgSorry it won't let me print the chart but you can see his fibs. The Bulls should be so lucky if it ONLY went there. We are talking about a global slowdown because everyone is realizing that the only thing (except Apples) which come out of China is pure adulterated crappola! That 15059 is a tad more believable its closer to a round number but let's face it that's too optimistic too. GL "October is still Coming" GL |
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Post by novie08 on Sept 2, 2015 8:12:08 GMT -5
Yes, don't forget he's saying that 15596 is his BEST case. GL everyone.
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Post by huh on Sept 2, 2015 8:25:19 GMT -5
JMO, but I think he's using too old of FIBs. Many of those have been tested, and therefore they should be reset to starting from the most recent lows. What difference does that make? If DJI were to lose 15675 now, downside target falls to <13000.
Again, JMO, and only if DJI loses that support. There is still potential for one helluva a squeeze here. Just too bad the market's gapping up. Like Crumb said, that could make it tougher on the bulls.
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Post by novie08 on Sept 18, 2015 8:07:09 GMT -5
Gotta give him credit on this one: news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1442580600.phpNot only is the alleged recovery not floating everyone’s boat, it is creating an entire generation of mal-trained college grads with poor job prospects and a staggering debt load that has made it economically impossible for most of them to buy a home or start a family. This bodes very poorly for America’s future. We all know the recovery is a joke. Even the lying, snake-oil-peddling, economically ignorant poobahs at the Fed know it. Can we stop all the idiotic talk about a rate hike? It’s not going to happen. And the sad reality is, it's being done ON PURPOSE. Of course they know what they're doing by letting in cheap labor and creating over $1 Trillion in student loan debt. The thing is, is doesn't affect them. |
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Post by novie08 on Sept 22, 2015 20:15:59 GMT -5
www.rickackerman.com/For Wed., Hidden Pivot on AAPL @99.73 For the time being, however, we will continue to view the rally from the August 24 low as prelude to another big leg down. If so, once the 108.50 ‘trigger’ is hit (see inset), the weakness could continue all the way 82.18 (see inset). Along the way, and assuming the stock doesn’t first head-fake above 117.27, a key test will come at 99.73, a midpoint Hidden Pivot that can serve for now as our minimum downside objective. If the stock breaches the support by more than 1.20, or closes beneath it for two consecutive days, the p2 pivot at 90.95 would become our new minimum target. See also the charts. Happy hunting bears!
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Post by huh on Sept 22, 2015 22:13:53 GMT -5
...the weakness could continue all the way 82.18 (see inset)... Pretty close to my worst case target for AAPL on this down leg (~82.25). If it happens, hopefully that would line up with IWM under 105  |
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Post by novie08 on Sept 28, 2015 21:04:10 GMT -5
JNK – High-Yield Bond ETF (Last:35.59)
Posted September 28, 2015, 7:22 pm
EDT
Wall Street's best and brightestAlthough we officially scratched a short position in this vehicle a few weeks ago, a subscriber with more patience reported in the chat room that he planned to stick with it. Why would we have exited if we were so certain the JNK would continue to fall? The answer is that our short position consisted of out of-the-money puts that stood to be losers if JNK died a slow death. That is quite obviously what is happening, and we doubt that buyers of out-of-the-money puts will make much money no matter how far JNK falls.
To be sure, JNK is on its way down to 34.84 over the near term, and to 20.88 on the long-term charts. Even then, I would still regard this dime-store-perfumed heap of financial excrement as wildly overpriced. The decline and fall of JNK would be all to the good, of course, since many of Wall Street’s most delusional fat cats are certain to hold positions in it till the very end. For our part, the only way to make money on JNK is to be short it. But with puts? Most probably not. The would-be sellers of those options are just as bearish as we are, and they have priced the puts accordingly. At yesterday’s close, for instance, just-of-of-the-moneys were trading with implied volatilities three times that of the underlying vehicle. So short the ETF itself on rallies, by all means. But don’t belabor the carnival midway illusion that you can make money with puts merely because JNK is headed into oblivion.
A short idea...love the way he writes.
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Post by novie08 on Oct 5, 2015 21:18:09 GMT -5
$ESZ15 – Dec E-Mini S&P (Last:1971.50)
Posted October 5, 2015, 9:29 pm
EDT
The futures obliterated my 1951.00 rally target yesterday in pre-dawn trading, telegraphing the power of the move that was still to come. And now what? We should put aside Hidden Pivots for the moment and focus instead on the peak at 2011.75 that was recorded on September 17. It is by now magnetic, but it is likely to become dead meat by Tuesday’s close or early Wednesday. It represents the highest high recorded since Black Monday’s plunge. We can refrain from using that term again, by the way, since the presumptive distribution that has unfolded since has gone on for long enough that it has acquired more technical importance than the August selloff itself.
When stocks struggle this hard to go lower, it usually means they will eventually take the path of least resistance and go higher. Assuming this holds true, as we should expect, look for a test of the all-time highs made back in July. To bring that about, the next logical step would be the creation of a new, bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts. That would require a thrust exceeding the 2020.25 ‘external’ peak labeled in the chart. Traders should take note of this benchmark, since any pullback from just above it it could afford a low-risk opportunity to get long via ‘camouflage’. We’ll want to short this vehicle aggressively if it achieves new record highs, since they are extremely unlikely to be confirmed by new highs in the NYSE advance/decline line. This ‘breadth’ indicator of market strength signaled the start of a major bear market last April, and new highs are not apt to change that.
Isn't this exactly what Huh has been saying?
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Post by huh on Oct 6, 2015 7:37:44 GMT -5
Yep, I agree. I do feel we will hit slightly higher highs, but at the very least the 2060's again. And just because the market is running on the previously weakest performing sectors doesn't mean it can't continue to do so.
I just don't know yet if the S&P will drop lower first (at least down to 1830's, perhaps 1730's). There's still a lot of downside targets not hit yet and it's hard for me to imagine making that run without some of those getting tested. OTH, that is the nature of a squeeze, isn't it? I'm hoping we'll learn today if the lows are already in, or have yet to be made.
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Post by novie08 on Dec 3, 2015 21:30:40 GMT -5
$+GCZ15 – December Gold (Last:1063.70)
Posted December 3, 2015, 7:27 pm
EDT
Subscribers used gold targetI’m establishing a tracking position — long four contracts from 1048.00 — since subscribers reported buying December Gold on the basis of a longstanding target I’d furnished at 1044.50. The futures traded as low as 1046.20 intraday, probably as close as they’re going to get to the target if it’s going to work. As is my practice, I will recommend taking a quick profit on half the position at a current price of around 1063.70. That’s admittedly not much of a gain, considering that I expect a very strong bounce from these levels. But it will give traders a comfort cushion that will allow them to swing for the fences with what’s left. The best way I know of to put oneself in a relaxed state of mind is to take a some of the house’s money off the table early on in a trade; and so I have advised. Since the February 2016 contract is now the active month, I will further suggest rolling into it. It’s trading for around the same price as the December contract, so I’ll use the same cost basis. If subscriber reports in the chat room warrant it, I will adjust the price to reflect their actual experience. Finally, once you’ve exited half the position, set a stop-loss for what remains at 1035.90.
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Post by novie08 on Jan 7, 2016 13:59:24 GMT -5
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