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NFLX
Mar 16, 2015 15:17:44 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Mar 16, 2015 15:17:44 GMT -5
NFLX now down ~20% from LT short call. Potential here for it to take a break & rise/consolidate some before the longer term downside targets are hit IMHO. This consolidation in NFLX took WAAAY longer than I thought it would. But it should be nearing completion here, especially if it spikes up to ~495-500. That would be the RS of a very large island H&S. I know it's a wide upside spread from here to 500, but the downside on this will be ~206/207! (puts for late this year/early next could be lottery tickets! Jan '16 210 puts trading @ 1.50) Believe me now? Down more than 12% since, the bid on those Jan puts already up more than 80%. Today NFLX tagged & held it's 200dma. Would be wise to take some or all short gains and wait to see if it can't try for the 495-500 zone, or at least get closer to it. (there is an upside gap ~438)
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NFLX
Mar 24, 2015 9:03:42 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Mar 24, 2015 9:03:42 GMT -5
That gap getting filled in NFLX. Time to load some short again.
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NFLX
Mar 24, 2015 10:38:59 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Mar 24, 2015 10:38:59 GMT -5
That gap getting filled in NFLX. Time to load some short again. In case this should decide to do an "Icahn Run" for ~$500, stop on short >443.50.
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Post by huh on Mar 26, 2015 11:24:52 GMT -5
That gap getting filled in NFLX. Time to load some short again. Already down ~5% since this post on Tuesday, and if it loses 416, it's likely to see low 390's next.
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Post by huh on Apr 13, 2015 10:19:46 GMT -5
If looking for a short and you get a chance to short NFLX a little over 500, take it. Very good risk/reward set-up.
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2015 8:46:47 GMT -5
If looking for a short and you get a chance to short NFLX a little over 500, take it. Very good risk/reward set-up. NFLX reports earnings tonight.
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NFLX
Apr 15, 2015 12:33:27 GMT -5
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Post by Herceg on Apr 15, 2015 12:33:27 GMT -5
If looking for a short and you get a chance to short NFLX a little over 500, take it. Very good risk/reward set-up. NFLX reports earnings tonight. I expect a beat and retreat..................however based on mkt. action as of late this should run past 500 tomorrow.................. JMO and BOL.....................
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NFLX
Apr 15, 2015 12:36:41 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2015 12:36:41 GMT -5
NFLX reports earnings tonight. I expect a beat and retreat..................however based on mkt. action as of late this should run past 500 tomorrow.................. JMO and BOL..................... But I bet not by much...probably like AAPL did with it's first tag of 700. Or AMZN at 400. I definitely wouldn't short it before earnings, but I'm thinking there's going to be an awesome short there. ...and INTC, and XLF, and HAL, and QQQ, and...
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NFLX
Apr 15, 2015 13:35:51 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2015 13:35:51 GMT -5
...and that's if it can even get >500. Seems to be struggling a bit here.
There is a potential pattern to ~750. But there's so many holes (gaps) in it, it's hard to trust. Plus, I have a hard time seeing that happen unless there was a buyout.
But, because of that pattern, if it does get over 500, might be best to wait until it loses some support before shorting it.
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NFLX
Apr 15, 2015 15:28:47 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2015 15:28:47 GMT -5
AH's high so far 542.18 , or +15%. Currently trading ~534, or +12.5%. Here's the thing, even if that potential pattern pointing to ~750 is to play out (and I very, very much doubt it will) then it should eventually back test the breakout ~485-486. Like all crazy pops on news, the safe trade is to wait at least a day or two before shorting in order to give the Cramer's of the world time to pump it. And besides, $600 would be an even better entry, right? (that's the 161.8 FIB extension of the entire topping pattern) But in any case, 502 should hold as support without it totally breaking down. Ultimate downside target is ~213. (But I wouldn't worry, I imagine they'll do a stock split at some point so the down move doesn't 'feel' as bad)
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2015 15:56:16 GMT -5
I was just looking over their earnings numbers, and I truly believe, on both a fundamental and technical basis, that this will be one of the shorts of the year. And I'll leave it at that. Not sure why I'm even anti-pumping this. I have nothing to gain on it.
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NFLX
Apr 15, 2015 15:57:43 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2015 15:57:43 GMT -5
Now if we could just get AAPL to join the party, we'd have a top fo' sho'.
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Post by huh on Apr 16, 2015 7:24:37 GMT -5
I can't leave this one alone...
- Subscribers increased by 7.8% YoY, yet revenue increased by 23%. How did that happen without a rate increase?
- Profits missed by ~50%, the stated reason being because of the higher dollar. OK, to be fair, the dollar is up ~23% from the same quarter last year. But not 50%!
- If the higher dollar affected profits so much, why didn't it affect revenues? Of course most of their revenue is domestic, so the dollar wouldn't affect it as much. But their expenses are mostly domestic as well. (and the answer isn't expansion - that's a capital item)
- They are predicting an even lower increase in subscribers next quarter.
- Many pumpers stating NFLX is currently valued the same as other media companies, even though it has more growth. Whaaaat? Other media companies are trading at about an 11 p/e. NFLX is trading at 10x's that! And that was before this morning's pop! At a p/e of more than 100, I think 20% growth is well factored in. Google's growth is about the same, and it's trading less than 1/4th NFLX's relative valuation.
I think MM's have a shortage of large IPOs right now, and NFLX is helping them with that cash shortfall. If this does get to $600, shorts win, not bulls IMO.
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NFLX
Apr 16, 2015 7:24:47 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 16, 2015 7:24:47 GMT -5
One other interesting tidbit...on 10/15 of last year, NFLX fell as much as 26.2% after their earnings report. That marked the bottom of the pull back for the markets.
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NFLX
Apr 16, 2015 8:09:26 GMT -5
huh likes this
Post by Herceg on Apr 16, 2015 8:09:26 GMT -5
I was just looking over their earnings numbers, and I truly believe, on both a fundamental and technical basis, that this will be one of the shorts of the year. And I'll leave it at that. Not sure why I'm even anti-pumping this. I have nothing to gain on it. There you go now you just hurt Cramer's feelings..............he used to call this nothing more than a cult stock and now he is all .........the guy is such a douche..................LOL JMO and BOL..............
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NFLX
Apr 16, 2015 9:43:58 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 16, 2015 9:43:58 GMT -5
Come on 600
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Post by Herceg on Apr 16, 2015 10:41:10 GMT -5
Come on 600 Just like last Qtr. they pump the hell out of it and then ride it down............wash, rinse and repeat............... JMO and BOL...............
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NFLX
Apr 16, 2015 11:48:12 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 16, 2015 11:48:12 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 16, 2015 13:10:27 GMT -5
One other interesting tidbit...on 10/15 of last year, NFLX was down 26.2% after their earnings report. That marked the bottom of the pull back for the markets. I think this could turn out to be significant. 26.2% on top of yesterday's pre-earnings close would put it around 600.
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Post by Herceg on Apr 16, 2015 14:36:38 GMT -5
One other interesting tidbit...on 10/15 of last year, NFLX was down 26.2% after their earnings report. That marked the bottom of the pull back for the markets. I think this could turn out to be significant. 26.2% on top of yesterday's pre-earnings close would put it around 600. Unfortunately this could be one of those stocks that just keeps going up................I would not expect it, but expanding to 200 countries is amazing...........Of course wish I had this in my portfolio from about 5 years ago.......... JMO and BOL.............
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