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Post by walnut on Nov 24, 2014 14:58:19 GMT -5
I keep hearing that oil is at a bottom on CNBC. I wouldn't want to bet on it, even with OPEC getting involved. Not until production hardware adjusts
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Post by huh on Nov 25, 2014 11:09:52 GMT -5
Keep an eye on XLE - if it loses 85.25 (still almost couple % down from here), it will revisit those recent lows.
JMHO
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Post by huh on Nov 25, 2014 11:41:35 GMT -5
Keep an eye on XLE - if it loses 85.25 (still almost couple % down from here), it will revisit those recent lows. JMHO Looks like it may even test that support today - if it does, I think it then bounces BIG for one final rally over the holidays. JMHO
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Post by huh on Nov 25, 2014 11:42:59 GMT -5
Looks like oil's about to lose a couple bucks. Otherwise, riveting market today. Very close to that couple dollar sell-off already. Need to be careful short when it hits. This sets-up too well for a squeeze possibility. Would have to wait for confirmation to remain/stay short. Although a very, very outside chance, that 90/91 support fail was never backtested...and Gartman is now very bearish crude from what I saw yesterday. We know what that means. Hee hee
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Post by huh on Nov 25, 2014 13:51:18 GMT -5
I'd only play oil for a potential squeeze now if it were to regain that lower channel. Otherwise, bear flag could take it to 65-67.50.
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Post by huh on Nov 25, 2014 13:58:36 GMT -5
USO coming close to hitting some long term downside targets. Between 27.15-27.40 completes the downside target for a 1yr+ bearish pennant that began 06/2012, and also completes the double top covering 09/2013 to 6/2014.
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Post by PoorHomey on Nov 27, 2014 3:15:32 GMT -5
On the "Busiest driving day of the year" 2014 I filled my truck full of 87 Octane for $2.31 a gallon... Sent from my SM-N910P using proboards
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Post by clinton on Nov 27, 2014 11:34:52 GMT -5
Platts Report: China Oil Demand Rises 2.9% in October from Year Ago
but they also are exporting as much as they are importing now.
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Post by clinton on Nov 27, 2014 11:40:59 GMT -5
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Post by maxi on Nov 28, 2014 0:15:26 GMT -5
Great call on oil Huh. It hit 67.75 tonight......
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Post by huh on Nov 28, 2014 0:35:37 GMT -5
That bear flag target in oil is now met....this time I measured it instead of estimating. 68.12 was the target (chart below).
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Post by huh on Nov 28, 2014 0:44:51 GMT -5
There currently is no sign of it bottoming here. BUT, if it's going to dead cat bounce (and I'd be surprised if it didn't), we could expect that bottom somewhere in the range of the blue lines, and the peak of that bounce perhaps as high as between 84.50 and the green line. Even this kind of rise would still only complete a larger, long term topping pattern. HOWEVER, cannot even think of playing it for a bounce until it either; a) creates a small bottoming pattern down here, or, b) breaks the FIBs of this most recent down move (currently >71.75, and this will drop if it makes a lower low now). My guess is that it will make at least a slightly lower low yet for a bottoming pattern. And if it does, we'll be able to fine tune the upside target using the FIBs from the 09/29 high to the final low of the bottoming pattern. JMHO
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Post by huh on Nov 28, 2014 10:00:36 GMT -5
Through all that chop yesterday, looks as if XLE was able to form the flag portion of a bull flag. Upside target ~89.00 so long as it can hold green today. The high since then was was 89.21. And now... Keep an eye on XLE - if it loses 85.25 (still almost couple % down from here), it will revisit those recent lows. JMHO
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Post by sloop on Nov 28, 2014 10:11:35 GMT -5
On the "Busiest driving day of the year" 2014 I filled my truck full of 87 Octane for $2.31 a gallon... Sent from my SM-N910P using proboards DAMN!! Its still in the threes here in Idaho
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Post by huh on Nov 28, 2014 11:36:55 GMT -5
...and apparently the market already knows it & showing it with HAL: HAL showing a perfect H&S formed now - expect a backtest of the neckline around 47/48, but ultimate downside target is ~31.50. It's this remaining backtest that causes me to believe oil, and the rest of the market, will likely get a strong quick bounce soon here. Yet another set-up for a potential blow-off. Combine this with the upside targets in banks, AAPL, IWM and the downside targets in VIX, and all of it comes together perfectly. When so many different sectors and stocks line up so well together like this, you have to take notice. Here's an updated chart of that H&S in HAL:
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Post by maxi on Nov 28, 2014 11:40:03 GMT -5
Just saw this last post after I had been looking at HAL myself. Anywhere down there in the 31- 33 area is where I started buying HAL a few years back. LOL I dun need no stinkin' chart! (JUST KIDDING!)
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Post by huh on Nov 28, 2014 11:43:15 GMT -5
Damn, "Sister" still pumping RIG. Short term bottom's not in for oil quite yet.
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Post by maxi on Nov 28, 2014 13:29:14 GMT -5
Oil still dumping now. low 65.87
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Post by huh on Nov 28, 2014 13:38:52 GMT -5
Oil still dumping now. low 65.87 In the bottom range now. Under 64 and things would get really spooky.
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Post by maxi on Nov 28, 2014 14:10:21 GMT -5
Oil still dumping now. low 65.87 In the bottom range now. Under 64 and things would get really spooky. Um like TSLA would dump since who would need electric cars?
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