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MNKD
Jul 29, 2014 9:48:59 GMT -5
Post by huh on Jul 29, 2014 9:48:59 GMT -5
Really pisses me off that I didn't get filled on that 8.35 bid after waiting weeks and seeing it actually hit that price. I had thought it would see 8.33 at least on the downside.
Adding to that, I had an AH's bid in for 8.36 last night and watched as it traded ~8.09 for a single trade. But must have been a fluke or with only a specific broker because I never got filled.
Can someone please put out another crackpot bearish article? PLEASE! lol
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MNKD
Jul 29, 2014 11:09:19 GMT -5
huh likes this
Post by birthmark on Jul 29, 2014 11:09:19 GMT -5
I'm still waiting too Huh. Sometime this week I think we get what we're waiting for.
GL
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Post by huh on Jul 29, 2014 11:26:33 GMT -5
I'm still waiting too Huh. Sometime this week I think we get what we're waiting for. GL I hope you're right about that. Both fundamentally and technically speaking, seems very fortunate for bulls-in-waiting that it's trading this low. Had that FDA approval not come out late on a Friday afternoon, I doubt it would be trading down here at all. Notice how it came right back down to that day's lows? Typical MM-Mulligan. But my hope is that there are a whole lot of stops sitting under 8.35 now that big funds who are short might take advantage of. Based on MNKD's recent history, would likely take some good news to get it to happen though - if it does.
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Post by huh on Jul 30, 2014 10:44:46 GMT -5
I made the mistake of reading some of the MNKD message boards the last couple days. OMG, Mr. Market, please flush some of these guys! Every little thing somehow becomes majorly bullish - little changes to MNKD's website, job postings, what cars come and go from the HQ, even Cramer stating the obvious that MNKD needs a partner to go higher. And are these guys really calling MNKD investor relations over and over and over again? Seriously? One poster even called today's moves "nucking futs". Seriously? It's a bio-tech. It's swing is only ~4% today so far. It needs to see a more than 30% swing in a day to get even close to deserving that designation. No wonder MM's dislike everything about retail traders - except their money of course. I wonder if these people even know that MM's use algos to trade against the sentiment of social media. Flush them already!
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MNKD
Aug 11, 2014 7:28:57 GMT -5
Herceg likes this
Post by huh on Aug 11, 2014 7:28:57 GMT -5
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Post by drtracyb on Aug 11, 2014 13:30:36 GMT -5
The problem with playing this game is you really have to be able to do it full time. I bought in the eights but missed the pop today to the 10s so I ended up selling and breaking exactly even. But it was fun to be back with you all for just a a little bit :-) Thanks for letting me play along.
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MNKD
Aug 11, 2014 17:48:59 GMT -5
Post by huh on Aug 11, 2014 17:48:59 GMT -5
Here's what I think the problem is with MNKD - MM's can't own a large enough % of the company. Insiders alone own ~47% of the company.
Remember before FB went IPO? I posted then that I thought it would fall hard to start. Not because something was wrong with the company or valuation, but because they had let out too many IPO shares to retailers. It's not that MM's want to be the only ones to own a company. It's simply that they need retailers buying. If retailers or insiders own too much, there's not enough buyers to gobble up their shares when ready to sell. MM's are better off shorting the stock in a case like this - they can probably control more shares.
Had insiders been selling more all along, I think the stock would have performed much better since the FDA approval announcement.
Also, I haven't looked into it much, but the deal MNKD announced today doesn't seem like a great deal considering the current market cap of MNKD and future potential market share that Afrezza could see. I mean ~$1B for 65% of the Afrezza sales? That works out to only ~$1.54B value to Afrezza as a whole. Not exactly what investors like me were hoping for when considering they should be able to ultimately grab a sizable percentage of the current $20B insulin market. Makes me wonder if the better trade isn't with Sanofi.
All that being said, I'll still trade the stock and looking for a buy tomorrow based on the charts. Although Sanofi perhaps made out with a very good deal, MNKD should still see much more future value & profits than what this deal may imply.
JMHO
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MNKD
Aug 12, 2014 8:42:13 GMT -5
Post by huh on Aug 12, 2014 8:42:13 GMT -5
Long some MNKD again at 7.96. Also looking for another buy @ 7.77. Expect LOD could be between 7.65-7.77. But any lower than that and the 200dma comes into play (currently ~6.75).
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MNKD
Aug 12, 2014 9:10:06 GMT -5
Herceg likes this
Post by huh on Aug 12, 2014 9:10:06 GMT -5
Ouch. No mercy.
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MNKD
Aug 12, 2014 9:46:04 GMT -5
Herceg likes this
Post by huh on Aug 12, 2014 9:46:04 GMT -5
All I can say now is... maxi did warn. You were right on Maxi.
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MNKD
Aug 12, 2014 9:53:59 GMT -5
Post by huh on Aug 12, 2014 9:53:59 GMT -5
All I can say now is... maxi did warn. You were right on Maxi. Well, that ... and this: But Maxi was right.
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MNKD
Aug 12, 2014 11:13:44 GMT -5
Post by huh on Aug 12, 2014 11:13:44 GMT -5
This would need some kind of miracle move & close over 7.74 to end bullish. But so far looks like only selling. Identical set-up to yesterday's action. FIBbing rounded-top consolidation acting as a bearish continuation pattern.
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MNKD
Aug 12, 2014 11:36:51 GMT -5
Post by Herceg on Aug 12, 2014 11:36:51 GMT -5
This would need some kind of miracle move & close over 7.74 to end bullish. But so far looks like only selling. Identical set-up to yesterday's action. FIBbing rounded-top consolidation acting as a bearish continuation pattern. Huh did you ever get in again?
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MNKD
Aug 12, 2014 11:45:47 GMT -5
Post by huh on Aug 12, 2014 11:45:47 GMT -5
This would need some kind of miracle move & close over 7.74 to end bullish. But so far looks like only selling. Identical set-up to yesterday's action. FIBbing rounded-top consolidation acting as a bearish continuation pattern. Huh did you ever get in again? Yep. I had a small buy in for 7.96, and a larger one for 7.77. I even put in a stink bid this morning for 6.76 never thinking it would actually hit. Now looks like it could!
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MNKD
Aug 12, 2014 11:46:39 GMT -5
Herceg likes this
Post by huh on Aug 12, 2014 11:46:39 GMT -5
If it wasn't for the 3 day hold on funds, I'd be out and waiting for 6.76/6.77 as the next buy with a tight stop. Or a move over 7.74, whichever came first. Because of the 3 day hold, I'd rather wait & see what it does here.
Today's action definitely looks like more down yet, especially if it holds under 7.22.
(BTW, could be a good intraday short trade there. If it tests the LOD again, look for a FIB bounce as high as 7.37-7.41 & short for a target ~6.75, stop >7.47)
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MNKD
Aug 12, 2014 12:23:21 GMT -5
Herceg likes this
Post by huh on Aug 12, 2014 12:23:21 GMT -5
If it wasn't for the 3 day hold on funds, I'd be out and waiting for 6.76/6.77 as the next buy with a tight stop. Or a move over 7.74, whichever came first. Because of the 3 day hold, I'd rather wait & see what it does here. Today's action definitely looks like more down yet, especially if it holds under 7.22. (BTW, could be a good intraday short trade there. If it tests the LOD again, look for a FIB bounce as high as 7.37-7.41 & short for a target ~6.75, stop >7.47) On second though Herceg, the better short trade might be only if it holds under that LOD. High risk short above that low since it was a 61.8 FIB, and don't want to take a chance of a double bottom. JMHO
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MNKD
Aug 12, 2014 13:39:56 GMT -5
Post by huh on Aug 12, 2014 13:39:56 GMT -5
Here's what I think the problem is with MNKD - MM's can't own a large enough % of the company. Insiders alone own ~47% of the company.... Insiders own 47% of the company, and 31% of the shares are short. Think MM's are trying to make a point here? LOL Trading near 100M shares the last two days and down as much as 35% from yesterday's high, yet today's call to put volume is 2 to 1. Covering much? Naaah
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Post by drtracyb on Aug 12, 2014 14:13:02 GMT -5
All I know is that the one big thing I learned from you guys is to sell the news. Of all days, my husband chooses today to take a look at my retirement account. Boy would he have been pissed if I had been losing money in that account from a biotech trade. I could have made a profit but A critical patient came in the door just as I was getting ready to click sell. Luckily when I went back to sell, I at least broke even. Maybe he won't notice the trades.
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MNKD
Aug 12, 2014 21:08:57 GMT -5
Post by huh on Aug 12, 2014 21:08:57 GMT -5
Disappointed with the action in this today. Had expected to see more support ~7.65, and a stronger close. Where it sits now definitely threatens the larger 4 year bullish pattern. Need to see some strength tomorrow to avoid confirmation of a fail.
But there are still two bullish set-ups that could happen tomorrow. And surprisingly one of these actually involves a gap-up! I saw a pattern in this today that I knew I had seen before, but couldn't place it. Found it in some old charts and it correlates strongly with the low today in more ways than just that FIB I showed earlier. I'll post more about it tomorrow if it sets up.
So although I am strongly against it (in fact it may be my biggest handicap in trading), I wouldn't hesitate to chase a gap-up tomorrow. And if that happens, I doubt the 200dma gets tested.
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MNKD
Aug 12, 2014 22:23:32 GMT -5
huh likes this
Post by crumbdon on Aug 12, 2014 22:23:32 GMT -5
I sure wish all of you would quit going on about this stock.....I'm really worried I'm going to get interested in it and buy some of the #@!!*# stuff!
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