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Post by drtracyb on Aug 13, 2014 0:49:16 GMT -5
My husband must've caught a whiff of something - he took all the cash in my IRA and put it into PHK today. I couldn't buy even if I wanted to.
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MNKD
Aug 13, 2014 7:38:30 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Aug 13, 2014 7:38:30 GMT -5
I sure wish all of you would quit going on about this stock.....I'm really worried I'm going to get interested in it and buy some of the #@!!*# stuff! Ummm...yeah...that'd be pretty much just me doing the going on. At least for me, today will determine whether the multi-year set-up fails or not. So I'll be going quiet soon on it either way. Others will have to pick up the slack.
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Post by crumbdon on Aug 13, 2014 7:57:06 GMT -5
Never be silent on account of my comments, lol. I just finally had a moment to read the whole thread and look into MNKD a bit. I see the intrigue, and I will be watching today's action as well. The right move could have me a buyer today, though I'm not sure just what that move will be. It'll just have to FEEL right.
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MNKD
Aug 13, 2014 8:36:43 GMT -5
Herceg likes this
Post by huh on Aug 13, 2014 8:36:43 GMT -5
Didn't get the gap-up move I was hoping for. So much for that play.
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Post by jacksrbtr on Aug 13, 2014 8:54:38 GMT -5
My husband must've caught a whiff of something - he took all the cash in my IRA and put it into PHK today. I couldn't buy even if I wanted to. Bwahahaaaaa! Probably just as well Doc!
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Post by drtracyb on Aug 13, 2014 21:23:34 GMT -5
I agree. I lucked out on that one. Well, lucked out would have had me wake up in time to keep the 20% profit I would have had. Or luck would have given me one stinking minute longer to keep the $400 I was up before my bleeding dying patient came in the door. But at least I had the clarity to sell the second I got into my car, for an exact break even.
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Post by huh on Aug 14, 2014 7:12:11 GMT -5
Everything about yesterday's action points to a move back to recent low ~7.22. Would have to do some fancy bullish dancing today to avoid it.
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MNKD
Aug 14, 2014 7:32:05 GMT -5
Post by huh on Aug 14, 2014 7:32:05 GMT -5
Everything about yesterday's action points to a move back to recent low ~7.22. Would have to do some fancy bullish dancing today to avoid it. View AttachmentNevermind...already near that low in pre-market. (it was green by a penny last I checked before posting this!)
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MNKD
Aug 14, 2014 8:29:08 GMT -5
Post by huh on Aug 14, 2014 8:29:08 GMT -5
Everything about yesterday's action points to a move back to recent low ~7.22. Would have to do some fancy bullish dancing today to avoid it. View AttachmentNevermind...already near that low in pre-market. (it was green by a penny last I checked before posting this!) Pre-market low exactly 7.22.
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MNKD
Aug 14, 2014 8:46:34 GMT -5
Post by huh on Aug 14, 2014 8:46:34 GMT -5
"I see lots of support in this name! Unfortunately they're all above here."
-Huh, 2014
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Post by huh on Aug 19, 2014 18:03:07 GMT -5
I don't see any reason why MNKD stopped where it did today for the high (FIBs, previous support, trendlines, etc.).
This makes me think it might be setting the support FIBs up for a pullback. The lowest 76.4 FIB now from the recent low to today's high sets at 6.86/6.87 - which is also coincidentally gap fill support from yesterday's open.
Not saying it will definitely drop this low, but if it does, that gap fill now has another form of support.
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Post by huh on Aug 21, 2014 12:46:34 GMT -5
Given the recent channel & FIBs I half expected MNKD to fall to ~6.87 sometime between 2:15 - 2:30 today. Looks like that ain't gonna happen - still falling, but a slooooow one.
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Post by huh on Aug 26, 2014 10:34:42 GMT -5
Could be breaking out here. Upside target ~8.40. (against 7.31)
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MNKD
Aug 26, 2014 10:55:49 GMT -5
Post by huh on Aug 26, 2014 10:55:49 GMT -5
Potential options play...
MNKD weekly 08/29 8.00 call for ~1-2 cents. (or even the 09/05 8.00's for ~3 cents)
Very high potential return (20-40x's+), but high risk (50-100% loss potential)
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Post by huh on Aug 27, 2014 7:28:15 GMT -5
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MNKD
Aug 29, 2014 15:12:09 GMT -5
Post by huh on Aug 29, 2014 15:12:09 GMT -5
Potential options play... MNKD weekly 08/29 8.00 call for ~1-2 cents. (or even the 09/05 8.00's for ~3 cents) Very high potential return (20-40x's+), but high risk (50-100% loss potential) Like I said, all or nothing play. Unfortunately this one ended with the nothing part.
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Post by huh on Sept 4, 2014 8:42:46 GMT -5
If you know anything about Mannkind, you likely know about the recently announced partnership deal with Sanofi (SNY). I find it odd that if I search for the details of this deal, there are a lot of negative media articles about it. This is odd because normally any bio-tech company announcing a strategic partnership with a global company, especially one as significant as Sanofi, is normally a very good thing. So I wanted to take a closer look at this deal and compare it to a similar deal made in the past - also made by Sanofi with a different company. Back in November of 2007, Sanofi announced a very similar deal with the company Regeneron (REGN). Let's compare the two deals: Conditions | Regeneron Deal | Mannkind Deal | Up front payment: | $85 Million | $150 Million | Future milestone payments: | up to $475 Million | up to $775 Million | Share of US sales: | 35% | 35% (+ share losses) | Share of non-US sales: | 35-45% (+250M bonus > $1B) | 35% (+ share losses) | Other: | SNY bought 12M newly issued shares @ $26 | up to $175 Million advance for expenses |
As we can see, a very similar deal in all regards. So how did this work out for Regeneron? Right before their deal was announced, Regeneron was trading around $18. Today it is trading at $361. So in the seven years since their deal, Regeneron is up 20x's, or 1900% (an average of 271% per year). Yet MNKD is trading ~12% below where it was before their deal with Sanofi was announced. And they say the market if forward looking. Yeah, right. (...how's that for some fundamental research maxi ? Thought you might be impressed with this one)
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MNKD
Sept 11, 2014 9:32:37 GMT -5
Herceg likes this
Post by huh on Sept 11, 2014 9:32:37 GMT -5
I believe it's no coincidence that MNKD dropped to trade around $6.80 even though they acquired both FDA approval and a partnership deal that, for another company at least, turned out to be tremendously bullish. Back in 2010 MNKD issued $100M in convertible notes (I believe mostly held by BAC). This agreement could require redemption of the notes by MNKD if any fundamental change were to occur. The CEO of MNKD, and easily the largest holder of MNKD shares (either by himself or through other entities), is currently selling his bio-park real estate for, 'coincidentally', ~$100M. And the redemption value of those convertible notes? ...yep, you guessed it... 'coincidentally', $6.80. ( details re: the convertible notes)
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Post by huh on Sept 15, 2014 20:42:57 GMT -5
Bummed about MNKD. Figured it would at least hold the 61.8 FIB of the last breakout move (from 03/31/14 low). It lost that with Friday's close, and then confirmed the failure with today's 5% loss. I think MNKD is the most bullish company out there, fundamentally speaking. And was technically until Friday's close. I still believe in the long term fundamental side of it, but I did some more digging this weekend and found something that bothers me in the near term. It's another convertible note contract they still have out there, but with Deerfield. Here's the part that bothers me: ( full details can be found here) "...A portion of the principal amount of the loan facility may be convertible into shares of MannKind’s common stock at the Deerfield’s option after a specified period following the release of data from the aforementioned clinical trials. The conversion price will be determined by the volume weighted average price of the common stock during the 20 trading days immediately preceding the conversion date. If the conversion price exceeds $6.67, no more than 6 million shares may be issued upon conversion; if the conversion price is less than $3.33, no more than 12 million shares may be issued upon conversion; and if the conversion price is between these dollar amounts, no more than $40 million worth of common stock may be issued upon conversion..." If I'm understanding this correctly, Deerfield stands to gain AT LEAST a $28 Million advantage should MNKD's volume weighted average now remain between 3.33 and 6.67 for a period of at least 20 days. And if this stock eventually rises to anywhere near it's upside target in the high 40's, that would turn into a more than $200 Million advantage. And this could explain why the stock has only fallen since approval. That's big $$ involved, and at a 9.75% annual interest rate on the notes MNKD itself stands to gain by not interfering with the falling pps. If this is the reason for the stock trading where it is now, it could be dead money for a bit. Today was only day #1 under 6.67 (Friday's close was 6.68). I should have listened to maxi - she did warn about these kind of things with bio-techs.
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Post by huh on Sept 18, 2014 8:25:43 GMT -5
Follow-up to what I posted above re: convertible notes... Someone on ST informed me that the Deerfield conversions may be complete as per the most recent 10Q. And that does appear to be the case. However a new agreement was created to allow up to an additional $60 Million (12M shares) in convertible notes at a conversion rate not less than $5.00, conversion price based on the volume weighted average over the prior 3 days. So if I'm understanding this correctly, the max convertible amount was increased from 40 Million to $60 Million, and the range of days used for the volume weighted average price went from 20 days to only 3. In short, I may not be waiting near as long as I had thought to get back into this. More detailed info can be found on their most recent 10Q, page 13. (this link will download the 10Q as a PDF file)
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