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Post by huh on Apr 17, 2014 22:04:38 GMT -5
Here's the chart I posted earlier today showing 14 year resistance in DJI:  So what do you guys think? |
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Post by dino on Apr 17, 2014 22:40:03 GMT -5
Resistance
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Post by crumbdon on Apr 17, 2014 22:52:26 GMT -5
As I am an unabashed bear, I can only see the DOWN button on this elevator. Resistance.  |
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Post by dino on Apr 18, 2014 6:59:34 GMT -5
I will say this though: You're not kidding about a monster squeeze Huh, if that were to play out. I think EVERYBODY would be caught off guard if Sell in May turned into new highs. Bears would give up (again) and bulls would start chasing (again). A couple big pops followed by melt ups throughout the whole month would be brutal if you're on the wrong side. I still say resistance though fwiw. |
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Post by huh on Apr 18, 2014 7:46:23 GMT -5
I will say this though: You're not kidding about a monster squeeze Huh, if that were to play out. I think EVERYBODY would be caught off guard if Sell in May turned into new highs. Bears would give up (again) and bulls would start chasing (again). A couple big pops followed by melt ups throughout the whole month would be brutal if you're on the wrong side. I still say resistance though fwiw. I agree. All the majors look as if this last week was only FIB retracing (DJI, NDX, IWM, XLF, IYT, etc). All except one - SPX. It is strong like, well...bull. Two closes now above the 76.4 FIB from the 04/10 high. But all things considered, I'm going with pullback until it proves otherwise. The holiday reversal week is done, yet still not seeing bullish or bottoming patterns here - only resistance and squeeze potentials. And could still get a surprise May if SPX were to test its 200dma and then run for new highs. That would likely catch many off guard as well. What would happen to SPX if it were to fall to its 200dma, and then something like AAPL run for nearly a double? (the pattern potential is already there in AAPL). |
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Post by walnut on Apr 18, 2014 7:46:41 GMT -5
I wish I knew. I have to think resistance but who knows.
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Post by Herceg on Apr 18, 2014 9:29:23 GMT -5
Resistance................What is surprising to me is that we have not done the old slow grind up during earnings...........I cannot remember the last time we did not have this happen.............could be a long time or a short memory on my part.............however the earnings have not been good IMO and WS does not seem to buy in this low rates crap till 2058 scenario that Yellen seems to paint............BB did the damage and Yellen will take the fall......
As always JMO and BOL..............
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Post by jacksrbtr on Apr 18, 2014 13:23:55 GMT -5
I'll say Resistance because I'd like to think that I'd have the balls to join it when the fit hits the shan and the Goobermint comes to take away our freedoms to pay off the $16-17T debt.
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Post by novie08 on Apr 20, 2014 20:04:47 GMT -5
Just to be contrarian, I'll say monster squeeze...altho in truth, not sure it will happen quite yet.
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Post by crumbdon on Apr 20, 2014 23:34:09 GMT -5
Just to be contrarian, I'll say monster squeeze...altho in truth, not sure it will happen quite yet. Rebel.......  |
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2014 15:00:41 GMT -5
HOD in DJI was again right at the shoulder test line of a potential H&S. Haven't broke out above it yet. If it were to gap over it early tomorrow, then quickly lose it, that would be the worst possible scenario and could expect a little more than 1,000 points to the downside to follow. That line sits around 16,458-16,459 at the open tomorrow. Need a close above that line to break the pattern.  |
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Post by huh on Apr 22, 2014 9:39:06 GMT -5
Ummm...I kind of thought it would have lost that resistance/now support by now.
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Post by Herceg on Apr 22, 2014 9:54:27 GMT -5
Ummm...I kind of thought it would have lost that resistance/now support by now. Still a few earnings to get out of the way...........mkt. does not want it to crash until the big boys can ride the earning pops such as NFLX..........they want to sell higher to the little guys so they can enjoy the nicer vacation over the Summer while the little guy stews with their losses........... JMO and BOL.................. |
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Post by huh on Apr 22, 2014 16:01:42 GMT -5
Definitely not the gap'n'crap I had envisioned. DJI even closed above the shoulder test line. But I'm going to wait another day with my short positions. Although I don't see bearish patterns in play right now with DJI & SPX , today sure looked an awful lot like a rounded top in them. Also, NDX, QQQ & COMPQX all look like potential H&S' here. Not good with AAPL & FB reporting tomorrow. Here's the chart of NDX - the other two are very similar:  I've been saying all along that I think SPX tops in the 1920-1940 range, and that I think banks would lead the final charge. And maybe this is the move, and maybe NDX squeezes this pattern. But I'd hate to take small losses on shorts and miss a bigger move by a percent or so. Also, still seeing lower targets on some big tech names (AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, FB, NFLX). And i doubt that SPX can rally another 3% while NDX falls. We'll see. |
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Post by novie08 on Apr 22, 2014 16:18:44 GMT -5
And what is your downside target? These markets are so easy to manipulate up due to the lack of volume.
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Post by huh on Apr 22, 2014 16:28:57 GMT -5
And what is your downside target? This markets are so easy to manipulate up due to the lack of volume. Even if the H&S were to confirm in NDX (which would give a downside target about 14% lower than today's close) I doubt very much it would play out. When is the last time we saw a H&S actually hit the lower target in the major indices? 2011? I can't imagine that we'd see much lower than 2% under S&P's 200dma, or ~6-8% down from today's close. That's unless we see SPX 1900+ first (before many of these tech names hit their downside targets). In that case, probably a 50% haircut by EOY because of the parabolic move. JMHO |
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Post by huh on Apr 25, 2014 10:47:22 GMT -5
Although it closed above that shoulder test line for a couple days (barely), DJI failing it in a big way today.
Neckline sits ~16,000. If it's going to squeeze for new highs, will likely begin a few points under there.
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Post by huh on May 5, 2014 8:11:38 GMT -5
Never did close above that 14 year resistance (orange line) - tagged it multiple times. Looks like it will pullback before running at it again.  |
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