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Post by huh on Nov 29, 2018 7:52:19 GMT -5
Could be a bull flag forming here in S&P futures, and if so, upside target in the 2790's:
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Post by huh on Nov 29, 2018 7:57:14 GMT -5
One thing I keep in mind as the market rallies this time...even after the recent pullback the S&P's Shiller p/e ratio still >$30. It's only been above here twice before - before the 1929 and 2000 market crashes.
It's average is $16.59, so S&P would have to drop 46% to meet the average - and that assumes earnings stay exactly as they are now.
JMHO
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Post by huh on Nov 29, 2018 8:37:49 GMT -5
Instead of waiting for the buy in AAPL that never came, I should have played TNA instead. TNA up 8.8% from the time IWM filled its downside gap yesterday morning. DOH!
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Post by walnut on Nov 29, 2018 8:49:33 GMT -5
Seems like there is a new normal for PEs since the coming of the Internet.
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Post by clinton on Nov 29, 2018 9:07:17 GMT -5
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Post by clinton on Nov 29, 2018 9:08:09 GMT -5
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Post by clinton on Nov 29, 2018 9:32:21 GMT -5
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Post by walnut on Nov 29, 2018 9:42:31 GMT -5
Sold my AMZN for 1680 yesterday. Need to know if we are in a bear market. Indicators look like we could still get a nice run from here, but the AMZN chart is still in the down trading channel as of today.
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Post by clinton on Nov 29, 2018 10:44:37 GMT -5
sold XLF puts +50%
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Post by walnut on Nov 29, 2018 10:51:32 GMT -5
Seems like you could make a living doing that Clint. The whole problem is to avoid the big losses
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Post by clinton on Nov 29, 2018 10:56:11 GMT -5
Seems like you could make a living doing that Clint. The whole problem is to avoid the big losses still working on a system. Your right though, just need fewer losses
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Post by walnut on Nov 29, 2018 11:36:32 GMT -5
I'm working on a system too. Good luck, it's a tough game to win lol
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Post by walnut on Nov 29, 2018 11:47:05 GMT -5
vixcentral.com seems down. I check that pretty often.
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Post by clinton on Nov 29, 2018 11:49:53 GMT -5
I'm working on a system too. Good luck, it's a tough game to win lol trump is the system buster. all it takes is one stupid tweet
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Post by walnut on Nov 29, 2018 12:18:57 GMT -5
The problem with a a lot of systems is that they assume a normal probability distribution. But with stock volatility, 100 year floods come every 2 or 3 years. This guy knows about that now, listen to him talk about a "rogue wave" that wrecked his fund.
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Post by theMist on Nov 29, 2018 12:39:22 GMT -5
Just checking in
I have to say trading volatility this whole year is awful
Even with a huge up day yesterday, VXX didn't drop as much as I would have expected
Get another day of selling and VXX could be back at 40 easily
GL ALL
Think I'm going to just check in from time to time and waiting for SP2300 some time next year
we'll see...
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Post by clinton on Nov 29, 2018 12:44:13 GMT -5
lawfirm doing trump taxes just got raided by FBI
weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
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Post by walnut on Nov 29, 2018 12:46:03 GMT -5
Just checking in I have to say trading volatility this whole year is awful Even with a huge up day yesterday, VXX didn't drop as much as I would have expected Get another day of selling and VXX could be back at 40 easily GL ALL Think I'm going to just check in from time to time and waiting for SP2300 some time next year we'll see... I was checking annual (negative) vxx and vxz returns for the last 10 years, and yes 2018 was VERY different than all other years. We know what counter-trending VXX means even on the hourly chart. On a monthly scale it is really very scary.. But, I don't know what the market is going to do. Guy on tv said that trade deal is going to turn the economy back on, but I know that the building stone business is practically dead. Wholesalers are having fire sales to get rid of inventory, that hasn't happened in years.
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Post by clinton on Nov 29, 2018 13:28:59 GMT -5
Justa matter of time till our russian president goes to prison.
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Post by clinton on Nov 29, 2018 13:39:49 GMT -5
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