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Post by lasvegas77 on Aug 10, 2017 16:13:52 GMT -5
My best day and trade ever vix futures in backwardation and VXX at 13.80ish in AH up about 70-80K today Good job Mist. This is my worst trade this year. In fact, i didn't have any losses before today. It was brutal. I wish i took the small loss yesterday near the close instead. Will probably have to wait a while which will be difficult to do after losing on this one. Fortunately i was trading less than half what i normally would trade in the past. Still up a huge amount for the year but this took off the stratospheric gains.
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Post by ipath on Aug 10, 2017 16:27:30 GMT -5
Shouldve stayed on vacation one more week.. But honestly LV we've been on full bear for the past 2-3 weeks so we took the beating.. it was slow and painful
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Post by ipath on Aug 10, 2017 16:28:25 GMT -5
Just received this email from IB:
Volatility Product Margin Increase
VIX (the CBOE Volatility Index) has established new all-time lows over the course of the past month. The price dynamics of that product are such that it can have very large relative price increases over a very short period of time base on news and other market factors. In recognition of the special risk of sudden, large increases in market volatility, that is inherent in Volatility Products such as VIX, Interactive Brokers will put into place greater margin requirements for Volatility Products after expiration processing on Saturday, 19 August.
IB's margin policy will be to consider market outcome scenarios under which VIX might rise to a price of 18 (even when it is currently priced much lower) and under which the other Volatility Products could rise to proportionately similar degrees. If you have positions in Volatility Products that have risk in large upward moves of market volatility, then your margin may increase significantly.
In the interim IB will with immediate effect increase its Initial Margin requirements on Volatility Products to a degree consistent with the upcoming 19 August increases in Maintenance Margin.
You can use IB's Risk Navigator SM to understand how the Maintenance Margin will change for your current positions or to see what the Maintenance Margin will be for any portfolio that you would like to construct. Instructions are provided at the end of this email.
You should exercise care to plan your positions so that they will be in compliance with the new margin policy by the effective date of 19 August. Some of the factors that you should consider are listed below.
• A number of current contracts will expire between now and the effective date. Depending on the positions they may increase or reduce your upcoming margin requirement.
• Some Volatility Products have "ultra" and "inverse" characteristics. Ultra products are expected to have greater daily returns than normal products while inverse products are expected to have returns that are of the opposite sign to normal products. It is therefore expected that an increase in market volatility will result in a decrease in the price of an inverse volatility product. As a consequence, for example, under the new policy the margin on a naked short call will increase for a normal product while the margin for a naked short put will increase for an inverse product.
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Post by ipath on Aug 10, 2017 16:31:43 GMT -5
does this mean that ppl who are close to margin next Friday will get margin calls the following Monday if VXX/TVIX stay same. If that's the case ppl will start covering knowing this is about to happen.. even now after getting this email people should start panicking if they are short and close to margin
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Post by theMist on Aug 10, 2017 16:48:20 GMT -5
My best day and trade ever vix futures in backwardation and VXX at 13.80ish in AH up about 70-80K today Good job Mist. This is my worst trade this year. In fact, i didn't have any losses before today. It was brutal. I wish i took the small loss yesterday near the close instead. Will probably have to wait a while which will be difficult to do after losing on this one. Fortunately i was trading less than half what i normally would trade in the past. Still up a huge amount for the year but this took off the stratospheric gains. I feel for ya LV -- I've been there. Like iPath said we've been looking for this for 2-3 weeks and I don't think this will be a one day selloff. Tomorrow the VIX SCAMs should open up higher VXX looks like it wants to tap its 100dsma at 13.87ish. Hopefully after that it drops back down to back test 50dsma at 12.31ish but honestly it may take a little while. BTW - it looks like S&P wants the 100dsma as well at Sp2411ish which I've been waiting for for past 2-3 weeks Not trying to scare you and OBVIOUSLY I COULD BE WRONG -- but this could be the move to fill those gaps at VXX 23 range that we've talked about for so long. That would put TVIX at 81 area
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Post by theMist on Aug 10, 2017 16:50:02 GMT -5
LV - I had a feeling you were going to come back from vacation at the worst possible time
August, September are notorious for being bad months for the markets
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Post by theMist on Aug 10, 2017 16:56:10 GMT -5
does this mean that ppl who are close to margin next Friday will get margin calls the following Monday if VXX/TVIX stay same. If that's the case ppl will start covering knowing this is about to happen.. even now after getting this email people should start panicking if they are short and close to margin I believe it will definitely add to the short covering in volatility. BTW - during this dull boring market this past month or two the brokers are complaining that they're not making any money simply because volatility is too low and no one is trading! lol
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Post by theMist on Aug 10, 2017 17:01:26 GMT -5
Remember the green arrow target that I've been waiting so patiently for? Here it is on S&P Daily chart. The arrow/target is right at the 100dsma around SP2411ish Question is always how we get there SP 2400 area should be some support
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Post by theMist on Aug 10, 2017 17:05:41 GMT -5
vix futures we haven't seen this in quite some time
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Post by theMist on Aug 10, 2017 17:11:29 GMT -5
VXX Daily Chart I believe VXX will hit 100dsma (13.86ish) tomorrow -- good spot to take some off table if your trading and want to take some profits As matter of fact its almost at it in AH as I type but I believe it will hit it tomorrow and hit it on cash charts If selling continues into tomorrow and I believe it will -- VXX should overshoot 100dsma and test 14, possibly low 14s If you're swinging for the fences, might be worth leaving some on in case this is the move that takes VXX to fill gap to 23 area Even if it does, it won't be without some wild swings IMHO
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Post by lasvegas77 on Aug 10, 2017 17:19:06 GMT -5
LV - I had a feeling you were going to come back from vacation at the worst possible time August, September are notorious for being bad months for the markets Yeah, I know. Honestly, I wasn't planning to trade much at all until October. I see the backwardization and not even really looking to short this again for some time. Fortunately, tvix is a gift that keeps giving when it works. It just isn't the time to do it right now. I saw you trading both ways yesterday too. It looked like you ended up getting out a lot better even though at the time it looked like a not so great trade with the avalanche on it at the close. The contango was so strong yesterday that it looked like a decent time to short tvix.
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