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Post by huh on Aug 9, 2017 7:09:51 GMT -5
10 things you need to know before the opening bell North Korea threatens a missile strike on Guam. North Korea's military announced it was considering a strike on Guam just hours after President Donald Trump said he'd respond to more North Korean threats on the US with "fire and fury" unlike the world had ever seen. Stock markets around the world are lower. Japan's Nikkei (-1.29%) led the decline in Asia, and Germany's DAX (-1.26%) trails in Europe. The S&P 500 is set to open down 0.24% near 2,475. Safety trades are gaining some momentum. The Japanese yen is stronger by 0.47% at 109.81 against the dollar, while gold is up 0.49% at $1,267 an ounce and the US 10-year yield is down 2 basis points at 2.24%. China's inflation remains weak. Consumer prices in China rose 1.4% year-over-year in July, missing the 1.5% gain that economists were anticipating. The South African rand is weakening after Zuma survives a no-confidence vote. The currency has fallen by about 2% to 13.4750 per dollar following the news South African President Jacob Zuma survived a vote of no confidence that was conducted by secret ballot. Disney is ditching Netflix. The entertainment giant said it would end its agreement to release new movies for streaming on Netflix, starting with 2019 titles, and that it was working on its own ESPN streaming service. The news came alongside Disney's mixed quarterly results. Fossil is crashing after giving a brutal sales forecast. Shares of the watchmaker crashed by as much as 24% in extended trading Tuesday after the company said it expected revenue to fall by as much as 8.5% in 2017 after previously forecasting that the measure would contract no more than 6%. Jeff Gundlach is paying close attention to the 10-year. "One way or another, it's going to have to break," Gundlach, the cofounder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, told CNBC. "I think it'll break to the upside. If it happens, that will introduce volatility into the market." Earnings reports keep coming. Mylan and Wendy's report ahead of the opening bell, while 21st Century Fox releases its quarterly results after markets close. US economic data is moderate. Productivity and unit labor costs are due out at 8:30 a.m. ET before wholesale inventories crosses the wires at 10 a.m. ET. www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-august-9-2017-2017-8
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Post by huh on Aug 9, 2017 7:10:29 GMT -5
10 things in tech you need to know today 1. Disney shares slid after it announced that it would pull its movies from Netflix and instead launch an ESPN streaming service. Disney stock fell 3% on the news. 2. The iPhone 8 will reportedly come in three colors: black, silver, and gold. That's according to a note published by reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. 3. The engineer Google fired over the diversity memo has filed a complaint with federal labor officials. James Damore followed through with his threat to take legal action against Google. 4. Hackers are threatening to dump more "Game of Thrones" content online if they don't get a ransom of up to $7.5 million (£5.7 million). The threat was posted alongside a 3.4 GB cache of data. 5. Uber is considering selling its US car-leasing business after losing way more money than expected. The Xchange Leasing business has about 40,000 vehicles and 14 showrooms in the US. 6. Netflix's CEO gave Peter Thiel a bad grade as a Facebook board member because he supported Trump. Reed Hastings said in an email that he was "mystified" by Thiel's support of President Trump. 7. LG accidentally leaked its next flagship smartphone. The LG V30 can be seen in a video that was published and then removed. 8. Facebook killed the Snapchat-like app for high schoolers it quietly released last year. Video sharing app Lifestage is no more. 9. UK startup Huddle is being sold to a private equity firm for an estimated $89 million (£68 million). It's not a good deal for employees, who will only receive $100 (£77) each. 10. Microsoft is redesigning the Xbox software with its new, company-wide design system. Fluent Design is the company's new design system that it created to take over all of Microsoft's products, from Windows 10, to Skype, to Xbox. www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-today-august-9-2017-8
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Post by theMist on Aug 9, 2017 7:48:02 GMT -5
From my earlier post -
Going to be a lot of trading opps today
So far still normal selling and wouldn't be surprised to see VXX top out in premarket in 11.70 range and then start to fall. Shorting SCAMs for scalp might be good trade.
Not seeing this as the BIG ONE so far
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Post by theMist on Aug 9, 2017 7:55:28 GMT -5
Shorted VXX in premarket for scalp in trading account
Other accounts still full on BEAR with mix of soxs, spxu, vxx
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Post by huh on Aug 9, 2017 8:33:42 GMT -5
If this small pullback is to be the beginning of something bigger then QQQ's would close today under the previous high to confirm a head test (gray line in chart below @143.90). XLF just barely closed under its head test line yesterday (also gray line)
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Post by huh on Aug 9, 2017 8:34:46 GMT -5
Both QQQ & XLF could easily fill this morning's gap down first (at least to y'day's LODs), so it's the close that really matters.
So, XLF resistance ~25.27/25.28, and for QQQ, 143.90 is both yesterday's LOD and the previous high, so that's its resistance now.
A close below 25.30 in XLF and below 143.90 in QQQ would signal trouble
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Post by theMist on Aug 9, 2017 8:49:42 GMT -5
Markets calming down now
VXX 11.74
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Post by huh on Aug 9, 2017 8:56:48 GMT -5
Also watching AAPL to hold 156. QQQ's won't fall if AAPL holds that support.
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Post by huh on Aug 9, 2017 8:59:17 GMT -5
Though 143.90 is QQQ's resistance, looks as if it'll probably fill the gap all the way to yesterday's close ~144.30. But again, it's all about the closing price today.
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Post by theMist on Aug 9, 2017 8:59:20 GMT -5
Also watching AAPL to hold 156. QQQ's won't fall if AAPL holds that support. They're buying the dip still For real selloff I want to see DOW down 200-300 at the open Just a war of words from Trump not the catalyst that is going to do it IMO
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Post by Herceg on Aug 9, 2017 9:01:42 GMT -5
It would not surprise me to see mkt.s pick up selling later in the day...............unless Kim and Trump are shown hugging and laughing............JMO and BOL..
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Post by huh on Aug 9, 2017 9:03:02 GMT -5
The earlier those gaps get filled the larger the bearish risk IMO. That's because the market hasn't tested the pre-market lows yet, which it usually does during the normal trading hours at some point. If those gaps were to get filled near EOD, that would lean to the bulls advantage
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Post by theMist on Aug 9, 2017 9:09:52 GMT -5
DOW down 64 pts is not my idea of a hard selloff Fire and Fury is about to fizzle out I have to call it like I see it Just my opinion
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Post by Herceg on Aug 9, 2017 9:22:33 GMT -5
Call it a gut feeling or too much food yesterday, but I just think this has to sell off by EOD..............I guess time will tell.........
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Post by ipath on Aug 9, 2017 9:36:23 GMT -5
if todays scenario happened on other days where we have a small pullback at the open then then markets calming down, VXX would go red by now.. however its holding up pretty good... I have some put options in SPY, I also noticed that their value was increasing even as the snp was recovering. I think it was just the demand as people are hedging today for the obvious reasons
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Post by theMist on Aug 9, 2017 10:55:31 GMT -5
VIX SCAMs crashing back down as expected
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Post by theMist on Aug 9, 2017 11:01:26 GMT -5
VIX futures Spot vix briefly hit HOD 12.54 and pulled back VIX never really got high enough and prolonged enough to cry out FEAR VIX futures improved very fast This was still a buy the dip opportunity. For real selloff, markets need a real catalyst other than Trump war of words with N. Korea
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Post by theMist on Aug 9, 2017 11:03:31 GMT -5
I am surprised to see that after all these new highs in markets, there are still a lot of Bears out there Gundlach was on CNBC yesterday basically calling for VIX 20 with a nasty selloff He was saying 'easy money to go long volatility and short vix trade is overcrowded" Then all the talk about 5,10, 20% correction
When traders/investors are looking for it, it usually doesn't happen
To the options gurus, isn't the hedging that is being done expecting a small to moderate spike in volatility? And not a major one?
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Post by walnut on Aug 9, 2017 11:13:13 GMT -5
"To the options gurus, isn't the hedging that is being done expecting a small to moderate spike in volatility? And not a major one?"
I just don't know the answer to this, your guess as good as mine
Options and VXX are both really expensive hedges, I have learned that. I tend to think options are generally speculative side bets most of the time.
edit- Since vix increases during volatility there is obviously option hedging going on and speculative trading. I don't really know I guess.
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Post by theMist on Aug 9, 2017 11:16:42 GMT -5
"To the options gurus, isn't the hedging that is being done expecting a small to moderate spike in volatility? And not a major one?" I just don't know the answer to this, your guess as good as mine Options and VXX are both really expensive hedges, I have learned that. I tend to think options are generally speculative side bets most of the time. Reason why I ask is because I thought CNBC said that there was a trader that took out a large bullish bet on VIX but may have used a strangle strategy? For example, if spot vix went to 12-15 the trader would have made a ton of money BUT if it spiked over 15 they would lose out. I thought I heard CNBC talking about it not too long ago Even now CNBC is talking about 'Bracing for Volatility' Also, CNBC must have shown about 20 North Korean missile launches this morning lol
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