|
Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 14, 2017 14:08:34 GMT -5
wow, that's a lot to go through at the same time. December 2015 was an awful time for me trading. Just as well not to watch.
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 14:14:03 GMT -5
VXX 16.89
Do you believe in Miracles?
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 14:41:35 GMT -5
Only 20 mins left to close -- its definitely going to take a miracle. lol VXX 16.90
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 14:43:46 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 14:48:01 GMT -5
Come on my babies! Drop one more time! Don't want to have to hold into AH but may hold some if don't get move before close VXX 16.87
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Mar 14, 2017 14:48:23 GMT -5
Gonna stay short my small position
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 14:55:06 GMT -5
Gonna stay short my small position How much are you short? VXX 16.95 avg?
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 14:56:50 GMT -5
Have to be careful though with that potential H&S on S&P
I left 10k VXX short on for AH -- I will be all cash going into tomorrow's FOMC decision
If I now get an AH move to VXX 16.70, that would be sweet.
I'll talk to you guys later-
|
|
|
Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 14, 2017 15:35:37 GMT -5
Yeah, I thought there was too much buying on vxx to go down. The roll yield is very close to being flat at this point. If it goes negative tvix will make heads spin and I will turn off my computer and turn off the internet.
|
|
|
Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 14, 2017 15:39:20 GMT -5
Actually, it seems that it is now negative roll yield. This is interesting.
|
|
|
Post by novie08 on Mar 14, 2017 15:45:20 GMT -5
VXX 16.89 Do you believe in Miracles? I'm old enough to remember that very well and where I was. It was unbelievable indeed! Lived in Chicago, a BIG ice hockey town!
|
|
|
Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 14, 2017 15:47:41 GMT -5
already flipped back to positive roll yield. Very strange
|
|
|
Post by novie08 on Mar 14, 2017 15:57:55 GMT -5
Would Never have guessed such a great trader would be a romance consultant...amazing! And Mist, hadn't realized your back surgery was the result of an auto accident. I've had lower back surgery too, but not as complicated as yours, just a "simple" herniated disc. I will say before the surgery it was the absolute worst pain ever. Had a great 8 hrs. once with some morphine, other than that, it was pure misery and I was begging for surgery. So glad you are so much better.
|
|
|
Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 14, 2017 16:09:05 GMT -5
Would Never have guessed such a great trader would be a romance consultant...amazing! . LOL> thank you Novie. You made my day with that.
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 16:57:00 GMT -5
Just might get that Miracle on Ice Move in AH
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 17:08:07 GMT -5
Las Vegas -
You saw the first month contract drop below spot vix?
Also, do you place M1 to spot (roll yield) as the key driving factor for VXX, TVIX, UVXY price action as opposed to contango / backwardation in vix futures (M2-M1/M1) OR both?
March expiry is in 7 days and converges on spot as gets closer to expiry.
The formula for daily drop rates - front month portion factors in difference of M1 to spot (M1-spot/M1) divided by # of days to expiry and second month portion does not (M2-M1/M1) divided by # of days between both contracts --from what I understand. Then you multiple both by weightings and then add the two together to get daily drop.
Walnut - care to chime in?
|
|
|
Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 14, 2017 18:11:11 GMT -5
yeah, it was briefly below it.
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 18:13:59 GMT -5
yeah, it was briefly below it. I have a feeling after front month expiry, things are going to get ugly. could be wrong but just my gut feeling The difference between March and April contracts is substantial BUT not between April and May contracts
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 18:23:22 GMT -5
This move in S&P is a very strong possibility and it lines up with my GAP theory. S&P made a breakaway gap, runaway gap and then an exhaustion gap (which usually indicates reversal). Also, S&P is slightly outside of rising wedge (not shown) and will either move sideways and pause for move back up OR sell hard to downside upload an image
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 18:47:30 GMT -5
I wrote Jim about possible H&S pattern forming and he thanked me to his viewers. Jim's an awesome guy and the one who started me on my whole TA path. photo hosting sites
|
|