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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2017 7:35:51 GMT -5
10 things you need to know before the opening bell (SPY, SPX, QQQ, DIA) Theresa May is getting ready to trigger Article 50. UK Prime Minister Theresa May will likely receive the authority to trigger Article 50 in a vote on Monday evening. If it passes, as expected, May could begin the UK's process of leaving the European Union as early as Tuesday. Japan's core machinery orders miss big. Data released by the Cabinet Office on Monday showed orders fell 3.2% month-over-month in January, missing the 0.1% dip that economists were anticipating. The Japanese yen is down 0.2% at 114.60 per dollar. Oil's slide continues. West Texas Intermediate crude oil trades down 0.8% at $48.11 per barrel on Monday, its lowest since November 30, the day OPEC announced it was cutting production. The SEC rejected the Winklevoss twins' Bitcoin ETF. Shortly after markets closed on Friday, the Securities and Exchange Commission handed down its ruling, saying it would disapprove the ETF as it believes "significant markets for bitcoin are unregulated" and therefore "the exchange has not entered into, and would currently be unable to enter into, the type of surveillance-sharing agreement that has been in place with respect to all previously approved commodity-trust ETPs..." Bitcoin tumbled more than 16% in the wake of the decision but has retraced the lion's share of those losses. Mario Draghi speaks. ECB head Mario Draghi will speak in Frankfurt, Germany at 9:30 a.m. ET on "Fostering innovation and entrepreneurship in the euro area. Intel is reportedly buying Mobileye. Shares of Mobileye are up 30% ahead of the opening bell following a report from Israeli newspaper Haaretz, citing sources, that suggests Intel has agreed to buy it for $15 billion. Vista Equity Partners is nearing a deal to buy DH Corp. The firms are in advanced talks and an agreement could be announced as soon as this week, but could still fall apart, Bloomberg says, citing people familiar with the matter. Terms of the potential deal are unknown. HSBC names a new chairman. The bank has named Mark Tucker, current CEO and president of the insurer AIA, as its new chairman. Tucker is scheduled to begin on September 1. A blizzard is bearing down on New York. The National Weather Service has issued a Blizzard Warning for New York City and Southern New York State that will be in effect from midnight tonight until midnight Tuesday night. The storm is expected to produce as much as 20 inches of snow accumulation and wind gusts up to 55 miles per hour. Stock markets around the world are mixed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+1.1%) led the gains in Asia and Germany's DAX (+0.1%) clings to small gains in Europe. The S&P 500 is set to open down 0.1% near 2,370. markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/opening-bell-march-13-2017-2017-3-1001828502
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2017 7:36:37 GMT -5
10 things in tech you need to know today 1. Mobileye's stock is soaring on a report that Intel is buying it for $15 billion. Stock in the autonomous-driving company was up 30% around 6:13 am ET after the Israeli newspaper Haaretz published a story, citing sources, on what would be the biggest acquisition in Israeli high-tech in history. 2. Alphabet's crazy balloon experiment has a new CEO after the previous one only lasted 6 months. Alastair Westgarth, formerly the CEO of wireless antennae company Quintel, will be the new head of Project Loon. 3. The National Grid in the UK confirmed it is in talks with Google's DeepMind about using its technology to improve efficiencies across its network. DeepMind is a London-based AI company acquired by Google in 2014 for around $600 million. 4. Google has removed irritating "I'm not a robot" reCAPTCHA tests. It is releasing a new version which can invisibly detect whether someone is a real human or not. 5. A giant billboard near Tesla's Fremont factory is asking CEO Elon Musk to sever his ties with the Trump administration. The billboard reads "Elon: Please Dump Trump" and sits just three miles outside the Fremont factory. 6. Early Uber investor Chris Sacca was upset after sexism claims against company. However, he added "nothing about that story shocked me at all." 7. Apple's iPhone-destroying "Liam" robots are operating in California and Europe. One Liam system can disassemble 1.2 million iPhone 6 units in a year. 8. Google's CEO and Apple's CEO were spotted together at a restaurant last week. Sundar Pichai and Tim Cook were spotted at Tamarine Restaurant in Palo Alto, California. 9. The Catholic Church is at US tech conference SXSW for the first time. It wants to bring more reflection to tech’s next big innovations. 10. Apple's new iPhone 8 "could well be a bigger draw for consumers" than the Samsung Galaxy S8. That's according to renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-today-march-13-2017-3
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2017 7:37:20 GMT -5
Frontrunning: March 13 Oil touches three-month lows, as U.S. supply swells (Reuters) Oil Steadies Below $49 as U.S. Drilling Threatens Longer Glut (BBG) Traders Brace as Crucial Events Loom for Markets (WSJ) Preet Bharara’s Probes Likely to Continue After His Exit (WSJ) Dollar steadies after three-day fall (Reuters) GOP Health Plan Would Hit Rural Areas Hard (WSJ) GOP healthcare bill hangs in the balance (The Hill) At the Fed, spring comes early with return to new 'normal' (Reuters) Your Pension Check May Soon Be Coming From an Insurance Company (WSJ) ECB’s Smets Says Bank Hasn’t Taken First Step Toward Removing Stimulus (WSJ) Market Drift Suggests Some Investors May Be Trading on U.K. Economic Data Ahead of Release (WSJ) Trump’s Trade ‘Hammer’ Aims to Pound China, Mexico and the WTO (BBG) Credit Reports to Exclude Some Negative Data, Boosting Scores (WSJ) HSBC Shares Gain After Bank Names AIA’s Tucker as Chairman (BBG) China may roll back electric car quotas as industry pushes back (Reuters) Anti-immigration hardliner joins Finns party's leadership race (Reuters) This Banker Emerged From the Collapse a Billionaire Hero (BBG) Japan to send largest warship to South China Sea (Reuters) Russia, Turkey, Iran to press ahead with Syria talks: Kazakhstan (Reuters) What to Expect in U.K. Markets When May Pulls Brexit Trigger (BBG) Las Vegas sports gambler to face trial on insider trading charges (Reuters) Turkey Dispute Is Boosting Wilders (BBG) Valeant Receives Lender Consent For Refinancing And Amendment Of Credit Agreement (PR) www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-13/frontrunning-march-13
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 7:42:18 GMT -5
Posting Jim's video
His large rising wedge does line up with S&P iH&S target of S&P2460ish. I emailed him also about possible small H&S (that needs confirmation to be valid) and regarding using different drawing boards for different timeframes so that way he won't have to keep adjusting trend lines when switching between timeframes. He knows I like to play volatility (mostly shorting) and he even mentions to possibly go long volatility after that S&P 2460ish target gets hit. And I would have to agree. If we hit that target without a pullback, I believe there will be a time when you can buy VXX and make a ton of money.
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2017 7:45:25 GMT -5
After Friday's action, ES is back below that shoulder test line. Needs to get back over it quickly to avoid another pullback and back into more chop. That line sits ~2373 at the open. Here's a look at that:
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2017 7:45:46 GMT -5
Also, keep an eye on a potential squeeze of a H&S in SPX now. It is above its shoulder test line with Friday's close:
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2017 7:49:07 GMT -5
I don't see anything in VX or VIX scams yet that suggests these H&S' in ES and SPX shouldn't get squeezed to new highs
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 7:55:42 GMT -5
I don't see anything in VX or VIX scams yet that suggests these H&S' in ES and SPX shouldn't get squeezed to new highs Quick selloff at the open can still put that small S&P H&S in play and I have to be honest, I'm really conflicted. So when conflicted, its a wait and see approach and need more confirmation to make a move. I see a bearish VXX chart with a long term bullish S&P 2460ish target BUT we've had a S&P BREAKAWAY GAP, RUNAWAY GAP, and EXHAUSTION GAP. EXHAUSTION GAP usually indicates reversal. And this rise has been real steep which has been making me nervous. And we have a possible small H&S pattern in play -- which of course needs confirmation /validation. However, I don't see the BIG TOP yet. Looking for possible short term top OR continuation.
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2017 8:00:04 GMT -5
I think IBB should see up to ~320 yet. Currently 296.38 IBB closed over the nearest FIB resistance on Friday. I expect it should now to fill one or both of the next 2 upside gaps (blue arrows) while testing FIB resistances. Playing it to test the highest FIB (gray arrow) would be expecting far too much for it right now, IMO, especially because it appears to only be completing a final squeeze of a much larger bearish/topping pattern in the longer term view: Longer term view:
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 8:04:12 GMT -5
S&P futures IF (BIG IF) this potential H&S does play out, my bet is that the S&P pulls back and retests S&P2300. However, if the pattern is broken, then I see S&P easily getting to my large inverse H&S target of SP2460ish and then I would put my BEAR hat on. screenshot on pc
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2017 8:07:07 GMT -5
I agree, Mist. Normally I'd be ringing the bell about this small H&S, but like I said, I just don't see anything in VX or VIX scams to think this S&P H&S won't just get squeezed.
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2017 8:08:41 GMT -5
But then again, ES could drop back to ~2350 again before it even begins to squeeze.
Would be odd to see S&P move almost a whole % (but not quite a full %), wouldn't it?
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 8:11:19 GMT -5
I agree, Mist. Normally I'd be ringing the bell about this small H&S, but like I said, I just don't see anything in VX or VIX scams to think this S&P H&S won't just get squeezed. I know -- I see it my friend. And contango is still high with low VIX. FOMC can also be a non-event this week. I don't think they surprise with .50 rate hike. I believe they will move with the expected .25. If they do something to hurt the markets, you know TRUMP will be all over it and put the blame on the correction / bear market that is yet to come on the Fed.
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 8:22:21 GMT -5
But the longer the S&P stays in the flat, small range, contango will continue to work on VIX SCAMs to downside. S&P and VXX charts -- the reason for my conflict. Either S&P small H&S gets confirmation and plays out and we pullback now OR we continue higher to S&P2460ish target. If S&P small H&S doesn't confirm and play out, then VXX should hit low 16s. IMO So far, its looking like VXX wants to get down to that low VXX 16 area...we'll see. VXX 15 min chart
S&P 15 min chart screen shots
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Post by walnut on Mar 13, 2017 8:31:14 GMT -5
I don't like that VIX index is up some and so there is going to be some pressure for the VIX futures to rise a little, IMO (unless VIX index drops soon). With the fed nervousness this week it may not want to drop.
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 8:37:08 GMT -5
Sold short 5k VXX small pos
red hollows on VXX that should get VXX to drop to new LOD
Keeping plenty of dry powder to avg up if needed
Bearish indicators also
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 8:41:29 GMT -5
shorted a little more VXX with that opening gap fill
Looks like S&P is going to remain flat and small range bound going into FOMC. IMO
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 8:43:58 GMT -5
I'm all in short VXX now
VXX 16.98
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 8:47:31 GMT -5
Red hollow on VXX 15 min Need next candle to bearish engulf it OR form bear flag with next few candles. If does, gotta watch VXX 16.87-16.89 area for possible bounce (horizontal grey line on chart). adult photo sharing
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Post by walnut on Mar 13, 2017 8:57:33 GMT -5
I couldn't resist and sold a little VXX also at 16.98
You are a bad influence Mist haha
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