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Post by huh on Feb 2, 2017 8:54:07 GMT -5
Sort of like tornado warnings. Can't say exactly if, when and where they might touch down, but you know to take cover (the party can continue during the watch, but not the warning).
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Post by walnut on Feb 2, 2017 9:02:46 GMT -5
staying short overnight has not been working in this small pullback environment. It has sure worked for the last few months though. But I was keeping smaller positions on.
I'm trying to move to your way of thinking on it, believe me
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Post by walnut on Feb 2, 2017 9:05:00 GMT -5
Just reading your SP post from this morning I thought you seemed to be expecting a little more down this morning than this move which really was lasts night's move. I thought you seemed to be thinking we'd get more this morning? Not sure. Mist It looked like you were expecting a small pullback this morning? Maybe we can bypass that? You are already in even deeper than I am right now. I'm not understanding. S&P futures are down 5 as I type and SCAMs are up in premarket all morning. We're getting the move! This is the move I was looking for and when we signed off last night I said "being that you left on a VXX short position on overnight you might have to suffer a little upside in SCAMs tomorrow before retreating that's all" I wasn't calling for the big one yet. The environment is still excellent for trading the way we have been. I just don't recommend leaving on a short SCAM position on overnight. We are in an area of lots of support for S&P and that is excellent for how I trade the SCAMs which is short them in premarket and ride down during the day and scalp. BUT IMHO - PLEASE DO NOT LEAVE ON A HEAVY SHORT VIX SCAM POSITION ON OVERNIGHT. lol That's the only point I've been trying to get across. It's not worth the risk/reward at these levels. Also, your going into today's trading already with a lower cost avg. S&P should stay within this trading range for a little bit more -- could be few more days, or week or two. Then I still see the big move starting overnight/weekend. As far as I see things right now -- DOW 20K was a headfake and I don't see the markets in SHORT TERM making any runs again for all time highs. Charts cannot see Black Swans!!
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Post by Herceg on Feb 2, 2017 9:06:06 GMT -5
MLNX, SFLY, EW, MJN, QRVO just to name a few on radar.............BOL to all.........
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Post by huh on Feb 2, 2017 9:08:34 GMT -5
Another good example of market's reaction to fundies:
This morning: Jobless CLaims Fall More Than Expected
Yet futures are down.
A couple months ago this headline meant rally.
What's different? The charts. (can't say Trump's President because that's been bullish, right? But keep this sentiment in mind come later this year)
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Post by theMist on Feb 2, 2017 9:13:01 GMT -5
Sort of like tornado warnings. Can't say exactly if, when and where they might touch down, but you know to take cover (the party can continue during the watch, but not the warning). Especially after that move in the VIX yesterday along with all the moves in S&P I was looking for a short term pullback in markets prior to DOW 20K and said we could get a DOW 20K headfake. So far, DOW 20K appears to be a false breakout /headfake. 1. Markets gapped up hugely over resistance levels and S&P left a BREAKAWAY GAP, DOW hit 20K, S&P hit new all time highs and everyone put on their DOW 20K hats for 2-3 days. lol 2. Then markets gapped down largely to backtest those resistances (now turned support) and even dropped below those supports at times. The gap up and then gap down created a rare Island Gap Reversal which is not really a tradeable pattern but just issues caution for Bulls. And kind of resembles a blow off top but not sure if we got the volume. 3. Then yesterday the markets rally up all morning and close the BREAKAWAY GAP as expected and then REVERSED REAL hard and rejecting any attempt so far at retesting all time highs. 4. S&P candles and short term patterns, indicators are giving very mixed signals on various timeframes. We are back down again in the trading range we were in since December and in an area of a lot of support. But my bias has switched to seeing sideways to down S&P action in short term again. And that is based on all above. DI lines are criss crossing back and forth and happens with back and forth action and means markets cannot make up their mind which way to go. ADX started to pullup confirming the headfake DOW20k and then quickly dropped back down and is hitting some lows. When the real move hits ADX will rise hard confirming the move. So, with all of that, my bias is short term bearish. Doesn't mean we can't see sideways back and forth action in S&P for a little while but believe the possibility of a sharp pullback lower now exists. Going forward, I cannot keep posting in length like this throughout the day. I am neglecting chart watching and trading. I honestly have to try to keep posts more brief going forward. Also, Walnut - sometimes in the heat of battle during the day I am narrowing in on the very short, short term picture since I am daytrading. Then when markets are closed, I will take a break and take a step back and then re-assess the bigger picture. And keep in mind, charts, trends can change at the drop of a dime. And BTW -- I am not one to dig in my heels with pride and stick with a call if I see it start to be wrong. I will reverse course real quick. just my 2 cents
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Post by theMist on Feb 2, 2017 9:15:10 GMT -5
Just reading your SP post from this morning I thought you seemed to be expecting a little more down this morning than this move which really was lasts night's move. I thought you seemed to be thinking we'd get more this morning? Not sure. I'm not understanding. S&P futures are down 5 as I type and SCAMs are up in premarket all morning. We're getting the move! This is the move I was looking for and when we signed off last night I said "being that you left on a VXX short position on overnight you might have to suffer a little upside in SCAMs tomorrow before retreating that's all" I wasn't calling for the big one yet. The environment is still excellent for trading the way we have been. I just don't recommend leaving on a short SCAM position on overnight. We are in an area of lots of support for S&P and that is excellent for how I trade the SCAMs which is short them in premarket and ride down during the day and scalp. BUT IMHO - PLEASE DO NOT LEAVE ON A HEAVY SHORT VIX SCAM POSITION ON OVERNIGHT. lol That's the only point I've been trying to get across. It's not worth the risk/reward at these levels. Also, your going into today's trading already with a lower cost avg. S&P should stay within this trading range for a little bit more -- could be few more days, or week or two. Then I still see the big move starting overnight/weekend. As far as I see things right now -- DOW 20K was a headfake and I don't see the markets in SHORT TERM making any runs again for all time highs. Charts cannot see Black Swans!! Just expecting small pullbacks for now. But thinking sharp pullback is around the corner. The environment is still good for trading the way I have been. I thought you saw my post earlier that I shorted TVIX in premarket at 5.38. Half position 20K short TVIX. If I had IB like you do, I would have a slightly better cost avg.
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Post by theMist on Feb 2, 2017 9:21:49 GMT -5
BTW - Huh, lmao regarding the above. I feel like I have big brother watching me. lol just kidding. I hope at least I'm making you proud of me since I've come back.
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Post by theMist on Feb 2, 2017 9:34:05 GMT -5
S&P looking like its trying to reach for next level of support at S&P 2271 (and can bounce in this area). But if that breaks has support at 2268
Good spots to put on short VIX scam positions for scalping
Always keep dry powder just in case the Don declares war on Iran during his daily white house press conference. lol
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Post by theMist on Feb 2, 2017 9:35:24 GMT -5
Alright -- having problems with fstockcharts again and I know why. It's blasting me with ads because it is free version so I need to take a little time to go premium and pay the small monthly subscription
frustrating
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Post by theMist on Feb 2, 2017 9:43:35 GMT -5
now short TVIX 24k and being that I stayed up very early this morning I was able to get good cost avg going into today's trading
Yesterday, going back to sleep honestly cost me.
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Post by huh on Feb 2, 2017 9:44:22 GMT -5
Alright -- having problems with fstockcharts again and I know why. It's blasting me with ads because it is free version so I need to take a little time to go premium and pay the small monthly subscription frustrating I doubt that'll help. I don't see the ads in FSCharts using IE (the AdBlock Plus for IE Addon enabled) and FSCharts still lags or shows ticks that didn't happen. I am using the free version though, but I don't think it's the ads causing the problem at least. FSCharts just seems to have problems when volumes pick up, and I have a feeling it might have more to do with data coming from BATS and not the chart programs. MM's need some sort of advantage.
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Post by theMist on Feb 2, 2017 9:46:03 GMT -5
Market moving event coming up. Tried to catch all of it
CNBC - Trump having meetings today and tomorrow with Dimon and other CEOs regarding tax reform, infrastructure spending, etc.
Definitely will be a market mover when we get the release
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Post by theMist on Feb 2, 2017 9:47:32 GMT -5
Alright -- having problems with fstockcharts again and I know why. It's blasting me with ads because it is free version so I need to take a little time to go premium and pay the small monthly subscription frustrating I doubt that'll help. I don't see the ads in FSCharts using IE (the AdBlock Plus for IE Addon enabled) and FSCharts still lags or shows ticks that didn't happen. I am using the free version though, but I don't think it's the ads causing the problem at least. FSCharts just seems to have problems when volumes pick up, and I have a feeling it might have more to do with data coming from BATS and not the chart programs. MM's need some sort of advantage. I may just play with disabling add-ons, apps first. Using mozilla firefox. Wish it was compatible with Chrome but isn't if I recall. I do need to optimize my setup a little better. Not just with fstocksharts but I definitely need a really good trading PC and 2 more monitors.
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Post by huh on Feb 2, 2017 9:48:40 GMT -5
Yeah, Chrome can't display FSCharts anymore. It no longer supports Silverlight. I hope FSCharts has some plan to go with something other than Silverlight or they'll be no more.
Watch AAPL ~130.75 today if it gets there. That would close the daily closing gap from 07/21/15 and should act as major resistance now.
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Post by huh on Feb 2, 2017 9:49:47 GMT -5
BB(much)L and BOL all
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Post by theMist on Feb 2, 2017 9:53:08 GMT -5
S&P bounced right off of support at 2271.
Alright be back in few mins. I really need to deal with charting issues
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Post by walnut on Feb 2, 2017 10:04:05 GMT -5
scams not coming down as the market moved back up some. Pretty frustrating at the moment.
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Post by theMist on Feb 2, 2017 10:04:31 GMT -5
EVERY TIME WITHOUT FAIL WHENEVER THEY PUT TRUMP ON TV, it puts breaks on SCAMs from dropping and they even pop a little.
They just had Trump on TV -- I guess he was speaking at some national prayer meeting or something and said
"The world is screwed up and we're going to fix it. We need to be tough!!"
lol
And of course all the talk on tv now is back on Trump. It's every day!!!!
Scams look like they want to pop a little. Maybe (big maybe) VXX tests that 19.39 area.
But overall, nothing to be nervous about
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Post by walnut on Feb 2, 2017 10:09:14 GMT -5
It is beginning to seem kinda Orwellian. I'm tired of it. Or maybe I'm just tired. Woke up at 4 am and should have been sleeping.
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