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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 10:36:14 GMT -5
I kinda surprised me actually, because it seems to just flat out work. In the test, I actually never would have lost money over any of the holding intervals except when VIX was bouncing around right at 17, but even then it was not much impact. You are not gonna like this I have been studying on this: If you set a rule that when VIX index <17, your are short the scams, and when >17 you are out, you would have done VERY well. In fact over the last 2 years, you would never have had any period when you are down. This is not an easy one to get your head around, I know I even accounted for the static of when VIX was hanging right around 17. Actually makes a lot of sense when you think of VIX as the fear index. Fear breeds fear.
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 10:49:31 GMT -5
now 14K long TVIX for a quick trade. Will not add anymore and keeping tight mental stop if hits new lod. For now - just looking for that quick spike up to fill morning gap
Not recommended, playing with house money here
TVIX currently trading at 5.39 as I type
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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 10:50:25 GMT -5
Not recommended haha
I definitely would have sold VXX yesterday for a better price had I been here
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 10:51:41 GMT -5
I'd prefer if any follow my calls - to follow my short SCAM calls I can afford to take the gamble with trying to scalp long the SCAMs If I get that morning GAP fill, I may switch to shorting TVIX. Obviously for daytrades. Have to see how plays out.
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Post by Herceg on Jan 25, 2017 11:01:19 GMT -5
NEWR, STX, LOGI worth watching...............JMO and BOL All three shorts worked out nicely...............STX took the longest and had to add in upper 45's....................CAT on radar because of tomorrow................hate to go in either way before numbers................hope for beat, pop and drop tomorrow..................
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Post by clinton on Jan 25, 2017 11:02:02 GMT -5
underwelming OBV. magic of gap up opens
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 11:03:25 GMT -5
Amazing when you think about yesterdays surprise BEAR squeeze with breakout, the SCAMs dropped 10%!! 10%!! I would have thought maybe 4-5% if anything. BUT 10% !! lol
And today they're only down 2.5% (TVIX, UVXY). Obviously, that can change real fast.
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 11:13:51 GMT -5
Not recommended haha I definitely would have sold VXX yesterday for a better price had I been here What a day yesterday for theMist to go gun shy! lol Of all days! I was frozen in AWE!!
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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 11:17:06 GMT -5
Contango still over 10..........
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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 11:18:05 GMT -5
Not recommended haha I definitely would have sold VXX yesterday for a better price had I been here What a day yesterday for theMist to go gun shy! lol Of all days! I was frozen in AWE!! I usually need at least some little bump up to trigger me to sell. Yesterday didn't seem like that trigger ever happened.
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 11:19:08 GMT -5
Now 15k long TVIX - for quick trade morning gap fill. Not recommended. My tight mental stop is at TVIX 5.30. If I get the pop with gap fill, I will dump position and may even consider reshorting it OR I may just risk keeping a little long TVIX on table. Just waiting to see how it plays out. Always have to try and project 2 moves in advance OR at least ALWAYS have an EXIT strategy. Trying to make the best out of a tight TVIX trading range AND not exactly the best setup for playing the SCAMs.
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 11:31:10 GMT -5
Walnut - what short VXX avg do you have? Hedged?
Selling should hit this afternoon. We'll see..
Also, if we close solid in the red - that will resemble a REVERSAL DAY (at least for short term). Still a long shot at this point.
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 11:34:15 GMT -5
Jack, did they suck in all the peeps yet?? lol
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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 11:36:59 GMT -5
Walnut - what short VXX avg do you have? Hedged? VXX 19.32 not so great huh. Only 2000 shares, I'm building it up slowly. The trick is to make enough before VIX jumps over 17 that the overnight gap is more than offset. This late in the game I don't know for sure. But contango = 10 helps
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 11:40:20 GMT -5
Walnut - what short VXX avg do you have? Hedged? VXX 19.32 not so great huh. Only 2000 shares, I'm building it up slowly. For daytrade or longer term hold? Anticipating hedging it?
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Post by walnut on Jan 25, 2017 11:41:58 GMT -5
Longer term short, using the VIX 17 rule as the only hedge.
Hedging is a myth, the only hedge that I have seen that works is just reducing position size. Sorry to say
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 11:53:32 GMT -5
VIX SCAMs gapped down this morning and tried rising back up and made a small H&S pattern again. For TVIX measures around 5.25ish. A move back up in SCAMS to new HOD would negate the pattern.
It's been doing this a lot BTW AND they have been at the bottom of downtrends. And so far they have been playing out to the downside.
And they're still trending down
Still holding TVIX 15k long. At small loss right now. Waiting to see if selling kicks in this afternoon.
And if VXX doesn't close this morning's gap, that will be another GAP that you can add to the collection for this move down in VIX SCAMs.
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 12:11:12 GMT -5
LOTS OF LAUGHS - CNBC trader capitulated on his long VIX trade yesterday. And they're even making the argument that this really low VIX (I believe VIX is at 2 year lows) is the green light to buy the markets! lol
Might be a good sign.
Only one making sense is Art Cashin (who has his DOW 20K hat) on. He's concerned about the complacency as markets are making NEW HIGHS AGAIN!! lol
Still holding 15K long TVIX looking for that morning GAP fill. I already broke my TVIX 5.30 stop out rule. Currently TVIX trading at 5.30 after hitting lod of 5.28.
I still say some selling in S&P hits this afternoon. We'll see...
CNBC - "this RALLY is the BIGGEST RALLY in markets after Elections since 1900"
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Post by novie08 on Jan 25, 2017 12:21:45 GMT -5
LOTS OF LAUGHS - CNBC trader capitulated on his long VIX trade yesterday. And they're even making the argument that this really low VIX (I believe VIX is at 2 year lows) is the green light to buy the markets! lol Might be a good sign. Only one making sense is Art Cashin (who has his DOW 20K hat) on. He's concerned about the complacency as markets are making NEW HIGHS AGAIN!! lol Still holding 15K long TVIX looking for that morning GAP fill. I already broke my TVIX 5.30 stop out rule. Currently TVIX trading at 5.30 after hitting lod of 5.28. I still say some selling in S&P hits this afternoon. We'll see... CNBC - "this RALLY is the BIGGEST RALLY in markets after Elections since 1900" Hmm. I thought Brian Sullivan said vix is at 40 yr. lows. in that vid I posted. Will check when I have time.
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Post by theMist on Jan 25, 2017 12:23:11 GMT -5
LOTS OF LAUGHS - CNBC trader capitulated on his long VIX trade yesterday. And they're even making the argument that this really low VIX (I believe VIX is at 2 year lows) is the green light to buy the markets! lol Might be a good sign. Only one making sense is Art Cashin (who has his DOW 20K hat) on. He's concerned about the complacency as markets are making NEW HIGHS AGAIN!! lol Still holding 15K long TVIX looking for that morning GAP fill. I already broke my TVIX 5.30 stop out rule. Currently TVIX trading at 5.30 after hitting lod of 5.28. I still say some selling in S&P hits this afternoon. We'll see... CNBC - "this RALLY is the BIGGEST RALLY in markets after Elections since 1900" Hmm. I thought Brian Sullivan said vix is at 40 yr. lows. in that vid I posted. Will check when I have time. Good one Novie - Maybe Huh can help us out with that one as well. Huh or Walnut?
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