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Post by theMist on Jan 13, 2017 11:13:40 GMT -5
You know its a boring day when TVIX trades in a 10 cent range at current price levels. lol
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Post by novie08 on Jan 13, 2017 11:15:52 GMT -5
Why, with this falling market, is UVXY not positive? No need to answer, it's a rhetorical question.
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Post by theMist on Jan 13, 2017 11:35:13 GMT -5
S&P forming small bull flag. Just now starting to breakout
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Post by walnut on Jan 13, 2017 11:35:36 GMT -5
Novie -Market is not really falling though, is it? Kinda neutral or even up?
I think that the scams are gonna drop hard shortly IF the market does not sell off today, IMO, be careful.
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Post by theMist on Jan 13, 2017 11:42:42 GMT -5
Novie -Market is not really falling though, is it? Kinda neutral or even up? I think that the scams are gonna drop hard shortly IF the market does not sell off today, IMO, be careful. Keep in mind Novie - The only thing that makes the SCAMs fly to the upside is hard selling in S&P with rising VIX and dropping contango. When markets are flat or rising, SCAMs drop under contango. VXX can still see $20 in next few trading days before we get a selloff. But so far, they are hanging in there and VXX is overdue for at least a green close. Also, for today, with contango rising and pressing little over 15%, it will take a quick serious selloff just to get them to go green. IMO
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Post by theMist on Jan 13, 2017 11:46:13 GMT -5
S&P backtesting that bull flag break. Pattern can still fail and I think it will based off S&P15min chart indicators. We'll see...jury still out
Nope successful backtest (of course)...to think I had my doubts. lol
will post chart shortly
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Post by jacksrbtr on Jan 13, 2017 11:53:34 GMT -5
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Post by theMist on Jan 13, 2017 11:57:34 GMT -5
S&P 5 min chart Confirmed bull flag backtest. S&P is going to retest highs possibly today, next week.
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Post by Herceg on Jan 13, 2017 12:07:29 GMT -5
Flat, dry and boring mkt..................should have just relaxed...........
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Post by theMist on Jan 13, 2017 12:21:30 GMT -5
I'm finding that freestocksharts has been making a lot of mistakes lately intraday (i.e., candles, and showing gaps that aren't there on really small timeframes) and that can be costly especially when daytrading. S&P rolling over a little now. Compare to chart I posted earlier, specifically candles where it backtested bull flag break. Huh, or anyone else, are you using the same or are you using different charting tool?
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Post by theMist on Jan 13, 2017 13:23:27 GMT -5
yawn....
lol
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Post by walnut on Jan 13, 2017 13:35:03 GMT -5
Pretty boring day alright
BBL
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Post by theMist on Jan 13, 2017 14:02:06 GMT -5
TVIX, UVXY are struggling to even close this mornings opening gap down. Wish they would already.
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Post by theMist on Jan 13, 2017 14:19:27 GMT -5
Just shorted a little TVIX for quick day trade / scalp with that pop on this boring day
shot outside its upper BB on 15 min chart and tagged 50ema
trying to make something out of boring day. could still run a little more
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Post by theMist on Jan 13, 2017 14:43:43 GMT -5
Anyone trading today? Can't blame if everyone took rest of day off. lol
Wow - contango over 16% now. SCAMs should drop red by the close. We'll see...
They are overdue for a green close
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Post by novie08 on Jan 13, 2017 16:30:59 GMT -5
No trading, still holding like an idiot. That's why I take such small positions. Just bought a little RIC posted on the gold thread. So far, it's ok. Probably a swing trade. There's the green close on the scams, pathetic as it was. Still think we may chop sideways until Fri.with the understanding of what is supposed to happen. I do appreciate your pointing out the moves every step of the way. Have a great 3day week-end all. Chris, I hope you luck out as we did last week-end, the ice/snow wasn't nearly as bad as predicted here. Still bad enough with temps in the single digits. Stay safe. They're even delaying the Chiefs game.
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Post by theMist on Jan 13, 2017 18:41:40 GMT -5
No trading, still holding like an idiot. That's why I take such small positions. Just bought a little RIC posted on the gold thread. So far, it's ok. Probably a swing trade. There's the green close on the scams, pathetic as it was. Still think we may chop sideways until Fri.with the understanding of what is supposed to happen. I do appreciate your pointing out the moves every step of the way. Have a great 3day week-end all. Chris, I hope you luck out as we did last week-end, the ice/snow wasn't nearly as bad as predicted here. Still bad enough with temps in the single digits. Stay safe. They're even delaying the Chiefs game. Your not an idiot Novie. The spike will happen and will happen fast when no one expects it. Just may have to stomach more downside in the meanwhile. That's why Huh is averaging very slowly over time and putting in stink bids. That's his trading style. You just don't want to get caught in a situation where you're averaging in a long VIX SCAM position just to get your money back and that can happen quite often unfortunately with them. Better way to play selloffs is to short SPY, or banks, small caps, etc. Depending on how next week plays out will probably be better able to gauge the size of the spike in volatility. OR you can exit your position and average in a short position after the spike in UVXY which is the easier money. All depends on your risk tolerance. The last setup was a little better with a BREAKAWAY GAP, RUNAWAY GAP, and then an EXHAUSTION GAP. And the SCAMs still retested lows and made a new all time low before taking out those GAPs -- even after making the EXHAUSTION GAP. This time we're looking for only a 19 cent BREAKAWAY GAP fill in VXX and that's probably why this time its taking longer (currently 7 days out and still under 2 weeks but may take longer). We all thought yesterday was going to be the one. Gap theory is an amazing tool to add to your arsenal, especially when trading SCAMs. Last GAP fill, our timing was dead on selling long SCAM position and then going short right after the GAP fill was absolutely dead on. You would not have been able to make that call without understanding BREAKAWAY GAPs.
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Post by theMist on Jan 13, 2017 21:50:09 GMT -5
Options prices tend to creep up over the morning, my hedging is probably done for the day. Will continue setting these up next week ok 1000 more. I am selling short calls against the long term hedge. Only need to make 19 cents time value to cover the cost of the long-term hedge. Walnut - selling short call weeklies expecting to roll each week? And how far out did you go with long term hedge ? Any specifics you can give us or are you holding out until got it down?
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Post by walnut on Jan 13, 2017 22:06:27 GMT -5
It is fairly strange but interesting. I sold 4000 VXX short. I bought 40 contracts of March 17th 17 Calls. They were about $4.5 . The time value part of the cost was 20 cents. The rest is intrinsic value. The delta is .90, and will be about 100% within about 3 weeks.
Then I sold short 40 contracts of Jan 20 22 calls for .31 cents. By about Tuesday those will have dropped and will have offset the time value portion of my long term hedge (20 cents).
From there on, there is no risk. My cost on the hedges is about 4.35. If VXX gets below 17 by March 17 I make all profit for every penny below. If it does not get below 17, I just close out position for no cost.
It is close to risk free once those weekly short term calls make back the premium. You can sell a bunch of these weird hedges pretty safely. You might make really good money, or you might break even. or somewhere in between. Meanwhile I keep trading the scams unhedged like normal
At current contago it would make well over $2 per share but who knows how long that will hold out.
So this hedge is kind of like planting seeds.
edit- at current contango it would make over $3.5 per share. You could sell many many thousands of shares by legging in as they pay for themselves, and you might have some big paydays. Or you might just break even.
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Post by huh on Jan 13, 2017 22:29:02 GMT -5
Mist, I use FSCharts. These future charts, or the tradingview.com charts seem to be pretty good too. But I'm not sure which is more accurate on the short time frame, intraday moves. But, yeah, FSCharts can get pretty screwy, especially right after the open or when volume really picks up.
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