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Post by huh on Jan 9, 2017 7:56:45 GMT -5
10 things you need to know before the opening bell Theresa May is aiming for a "Hard Brexit." In a Sky News interview on Sunday, UK Prime Minister May said Brexit will be about "getting the right relationship" with the European Union and "not about keeping bits of membership." The British pound is at a three-month low, down 0.9% at 1.2173 versus the dollar. Beppe Grillo is changing his tune in Italy. The leader of Italy's populist Five Star movement wants to end its euro-skeptic alliance with Britain's UKIP party and enter into a pro-EU alliance, AFP says. China spent around $72 billion defending the yuan in December. While China's FX reserves fell by about $41 billion to $3.01 trillion, the amount of net capital outflows, and subsequent intervention from the PBOC, was nearly twice as much, Wei Li, China and Asia economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia , wrote in a note to clients. Goldman Sachs says there are 3 big risks for 2017. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius is optimistic for 2017, but said in a speech in London on Monday that trade protectionism, European politics, and China are the three risks to his outlook. McDonald's unloads its business in China. The fast food giant sold 20-year rights to the majority of its business in Hong Kong and China to Citic and Carlyle Group for up to $2.1 billion, Reuters reports. The first iPhone was unveiled 10 years ago Monday. Check out Steve Jobs on-stage at the Macworld conference in 2007, announcing the first iPhone. The Detroit auto show begins. The 2017 North American International Auto Show in downtown Detroit opens on Monday, and runs until January 22. Stock markets around the world trade mixed. China's Shanghai Composite (+0.5%) led in Asia and France's CAC (-0.8%) lags in Europe. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track to open slightly lower near 19,945. Earnings reporting is light. Apollo Education reports after markets close. US economic data trickles out. Consumer credit will be released at 3 p.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is down 3 basis points at 2.39%. markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/10-things-you-need-to-know-before-the-opening-bell-1001651134
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Post by huh on Jan 9, 2017 7:57:33 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Jan 9, 2017 7:58:15 GMT -5
Frontrunning: January 9 European shares dip, sterling falls on Brexit comments (Reuters) Pound Falls to 10-Week Low as May Hints at Single-Market Exit (BBG) Offshore Yuan Falls for Second Day as Bears Reload After Squeeze (BBG) Trump's choices for top Cabinet posts face big tests this week (Reuters) Nine Trump Nominees Who’ll Face Extreme Vetting by Democrats (BBG) Meet the Mercers: New Power Brokers in Trump’s Washington (WSJ) Why the China Manipulator Label Looks Increasingly Appealing to Trump (BBG) Turkish Lira Extends Losses as Rate Speculation Mounts (BBG) Auto Makers in Hot Seat as Political Pressure Rises (WSJ) GM Won’t Move Small-Car Production From Mexico (WSJ) ‘La La Land’ Sets Golden Globes Record With Seven Statuettes (BBG) Big China bitcoin exchange says no government pressure on outflows (Reuters) Brazil Worries the ‘China of South America’ Is Eating Its Lunch (BBG) McDonald’s Aims to Flip China Results by Ceding Control (WSJ) UnitedHealth to buy Surgical Care Affiliates in $2.3 billion deal (Reuters) German Industrial Output Rises in Sign of Economic Strength (BBG) Navy, Trump planning biggest fleet expansion since Cold War (Reuters) Kansas Offers Cautionary Tale for Trump's Tax Ambition (BBG) Police arrest 16 in France over Kardashian robbery (Reuters) Trump’s Canceled Overseas Projects Only Brought in $323,150 (BBG) China Is Planning a New, Relaxed Approach to Growth (BBG) Your Favorite Food Can Tell You About What Your Money's Worth (BBG) Florida airport shooting suspect to appear in federal court (Reuters) www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-09/frontrunning-january-9
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Post by huh on Jan 9, 2017 8:29:00 GMT -5
S&P futures resistance 2270.50. Break that and may have a chance for one more slightly higher high, though the odds not looking good for that now. I was hoping for a market gap up in order to break Friday's resistances.
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 8:39:16 GMT -5
Huh,
You're an awesome friend and I have the utmost respect for you. You are a fantastic Technician - far better than me. And I'm always open to the possibility that this could be the top. I would have loved to see a GAP up as well this morning.
I've been arguing with some really smart traders on the Yahoo MSG Boards (I really need to stop wasting my time) and telling them to start covering their VIX SCAM short or at least hedge it.
Could you imagine if this small pullback I'm expecting turns out to be the BIG ONE!. My God, after nailing the last 4 or 5 calls, they'll carry me off the field like RUDY !!! ROFLMAO I really can't stop laughing.
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Post by huh on Jan 9, 2017 8:42:24 GMT -5
LOL. Thanks for the compliment, but I think you're way wrong on that one. You're not giving yourself enough credit. I suck on ST calls, which is the best way to make quick money. Waiting weeks, or even months, for a decent gain, or only the set-up, is a loooong wait.
And don't worry about those on the YMB. They'll learn. LOL
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Post by huh on Jan 9, 2017 8:45:08 GMT -5
S&P should see 2278-2286 range (at least 2278) at some point over the next couple trading days Friday's HOD hit almost right smack in the middle of that range and then started to rollover, forming a small rounded top. This is why I was hoping for a gap up. Less likely to hit the top end of that range with a normal hours move. Gap ups are the easy way to break resistances.
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Post by huh on Jan 9, 2017 8:55:50 GMT -5
None of the 3 major indices have tested their bottom BB's since last testing their top BB's back in mid Decenmber. And on Friday S&P tested its top BB again while NDX closed above its. However, DJI has yet to test its top BB for a second time. So there's a good chance we could see DJI up ~70-80 points or so to get that test in.
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 8:57:45 GMT -5
VIX SCAMs starting to show a little strength! Which is unbelievable when you think about it with contango at 13%. lol Wonder why?!
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Post by walnut on Jan 9, 2017 9:06:21 GMT -5
You know that the contango number will usually tend to be higher in the second half of the futures month than the first half. The near month future has a steeper drop as it gets close to VIX index. Just something to keep in mind
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Post by walnut on Jan 9, 2017 9:07:54 GMT -5
VIX SCAMs starting to show a little strength! Which is unbelievable when you think about it with contango at 13%. lol Wonder why?! That January future has traded up 15 cents.
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 9:10:02 GMT -5
And BTW - you too Walnut. You're an awesome friend and I have the utmost respect for you as well. You are far more knowledgeable than I am when it comes to VIX futures (calculating contango, contango v. backwardation) and Options Trading. I've learned a lot from you as well. As well as the rest of the crew. With Jack, I learned that it is possible to paint your old van with a roller (could you imagine) and actually have it come out really good. ROFLMAO
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Post by walnut on Jan 9, 2017 9:16:53 GMT -5
Thanks Mist
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Post by walnut on Jan 9, 2017 9:18:03 GMT -5
I would think about trying to go long volatility with you guys but I have to go to work today. I will just have to wait and try to catch it on the way back down.
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 9:23:17 GMT -5
No trades this morning. Still holding 2500 long UVXY (out of 30k allocated) from Friday. Just observing so far.
May put on a small trade in the SCAMs (long or short) for a quick scalp if I get bored but will leave on the 2500 long UVXY until upside BREAKAWAY GAP fill and still have my bias on going long volatility for short term and looking to add more.
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Post by novie08 on Jan 9, 2017 9:38:13 GMT -5
Just to be clear, there is a gap at 7.47 and another way up there at 8.75 or so...are you talking the 8.75 one? Many thanks.
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 9:42:27 GMT -5
S&P broke support on that Rising Wedge I posted. Hourly indicators (MACD, MACD Histogram) are about to roll over. Pullback in S&P should have more legs. BTW - that target for RISING Wedge I have at S&P 2240ish. You can even peg it at S&P 2230 range depending on how you have it drawn.
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 9:47:00 GMT -5
Novie - For UVXY the BREAKAWAY GAP is at $7.47. The gap in the $8 dollar range is a Common GAP. The BREAKAWAY GAP is the one that is practically 100% GUARANTEED to get FILLED over few trading days (usually within 2 week) AS LONG AS IT SHOWS ON VXX CHART. MOST IMPORTANT: When charting moves in TVIX, UVXY (especially playing GAPs), you ALWAYS have to check or chart VXX. I always use VXX when charting VIX SCAMs.
However, that's not to say that UVXY cannot overshoot the BREAKAWAY UPSIDE GAP to $7.47 and go much higher. All I'm saying is that the GUARANTEED move over next few days is a MINIMUM move to UVXY $7.47.
BREAKAWAY GAPs: are where shares never traded at anytime in its entire history. For example, say VXX makes an ALL TIME LOW and low of day today at $22 and closes at the today's low $22 (ALL TIME LOW). Tomorrow it GAPs down and trades from $20-$21 leaving behind a BREAKAWAY GAP at $21-$22 that is unfilled. So shares NEVER traded at $21-$22. This is an example of a BREAKAWAY GAP that is still unfilled and will always get filled - just a matter of time.
Common GAP: Say VXX trades from $22-$24 range today and it closes at $24 at the HOD. Tomorrow it gaps down (opening gap) and trades at $23 and keeps running lower and closes at $21. It never fills the opening gap. That is known as a COMMON GAP. COMMON GAPs are not guaranteed to get filled unlike BREAKAWAY GAPs.
Hope you see the difference between the two types of GAPs. That's why in the past, I've only made calls to take out the BREAKWAY GAPs knowing that they ALWAYS get filled -- just a matter of time and as long as the BREAKAWAY GAP shows on VXX.
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Post by huh on Jan 9, 2017 9:48:28 GMT -5
VXX just filled the most recent upside gap with that HOD of 22.40
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Post by novie08 on Jan 9, 2017 9:51:43 GMT -5
In late @6.62, we'll see how this one goes.
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