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Post by walnut on Jan 3, 2017 11:52:40 GMT -5
Selling 1 week VXX calls at 2 standard deviations out of the money also works with a little less risk, should make good money and is good when the scams are not dropping quite as fast as usual. Usually they sell for a premium over their fair value based on historical volatility, due to large investors buying them as market hedges. By definition at 2 std deviations they will work at least 90% of the time but you must have a strategy to cover if the VXX rises close to strike price. Either buy VXX or roll to next week or buy to close at a loss.
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Post by theMist on Jan 3, 2017 12:00:45 GMT -5
BEAR Flag on SCAMs - should take another leg lower before EOD
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Post by theMist on Jan 3, 2017 12:11:04 GMT -5
Wow - Anyone watching Natural GAS?! What a move down in UGAZ (36%)! So glad I posted that chart of UNG with upside breakaway GAP. lol In all seriousness, it could take another year before UNG fills that upside Breakaway GAP and at some point it will. On the other hand, look at NVDA
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Post by walnut on Jan 3, 2017 12:36:23 GMT -5
We are not that far from the Low of the day on VXX when you think about it
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Post by walnut on Jan 3, 2017 12:36:58 GMT -5
Well, we weren't then...
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Post by theMist on Jan 3, 2017 12:52:36 GMT -5
Not liking this selling in the markets all day after such a large gap up and hit that APEX. If markets continue to sell into the CLOSE wont be good headed into tomorrow as far as S&P is concerned.
But of course, the VIX SCAMs are in a world all to their own. It would take a North Korean Nuke launched at the U.S. for them to go green today. lol
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Post by theMist on Jan 3, 2017 12:57:54 GMT -5
So far Novie's triple bottom call kicking ass!
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Post by novie08 on Jan 3, 2017 13:04:31 GMT -5
So far Novie's triple bottom call kicking ass! Lol Mist, once in a while... Luckily, I looked at the chart.
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Post by novie08 on Jan 3, 2017 13:11:53 GMT -5
Honestly, I thought the markets would reverse again and head back up after 1 PM. This is still possible, but looking less likely for sure...now the question is, will we end down?
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Post by theMist on Jan 3, 2017 13:14:48 GMT -5
Before I forget - been watching 2 fairly new VIX ETPs that have been on the market since June.
VMIN VMAX
Still learning about them. Unfortunately, from what I can see, they're not very liquid and bid/ask spread isn't very good compared to the veterans VXX, UVXY, TVIX.
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Post by theMist on Jan 3, 2017 13:19:56 GMT -5
UVXY 15 min chart showing Bear Flag. Should play out and take another leg lower
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Post by novie08 on Jan 3, 2017 13:25:31 GMT -5
Honestly, I thought the markets would reverse again and head back up after 1 PM. This is still possible, but looking less likely for sure...now the question is, will we end down? My posting this is all it took! Happens quite often.
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Post by theMist on Jan 3, 2017 13:30:29 GMT -5
LMAO Novie. Good Call!
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Post by walnut on Jan 3, 2017 13:46:08 GMT -5
The deck is just stacked against going long the scams. Sure it can work, but it's just not a great way to gamble usually.
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Post by theMist on Jan 3, 2017 13:53:26 GMT -5
The only time its a good bet to go long the scams is when you're playing UPSIDE BREAKAWAY GAPs OR during a REAL Correction OR BEAR Market -- when VIX Futures maintain Heavy Backwardation.
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Post by theMist on Jan 3, 2017 14:07:39 GMT -5
Come on my Babies! lol
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Post by theMist on Jan 3, 2017 14:32:34 GMT -5
This is about the time where it would be VERY USEFUL to have the DAILY BUY/SELL IMBALANCE going into the close.
Anyone have access to that type of info?
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Post by walnut on Jan 3, 2017 14:43:19 GMT -5
I forgot, I would like to see it too
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Post by theMist on Jan 3, 2017 14:46:36 GMT -5
You still have your 8k shares short VXX? Are you holding overnight or are you taking some off the table before EOD?
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Post by theMist on Jan 3, 2017 14:48:42 GMT -5
SCAMs should take another leg lower. That Bear flag started to breakout and then traded sideways. However, BBs are squeezing on 15min chart indicating big move coming. Should be to downside. Currently 30k short UVXY - definitely taking some off the table before close
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