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Post by walnut on Dec 7, 2016 13:59:07 GMT -5
VIX seems to think this might be a blow off top, to some degree or other
edit- I'm not ready to go that far yet haha
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Post by huh on Dec 7, 2016 15:03:06 GMT -5
VIX seems to think this might be a blow off top, to some degree or other edit- I'm not ready to go that far yet haha Remember what I said about VX_F? Look where it found support today. And VIX scams should be down much, much more relative to the indices. I'm also not ready to call a top just yet. Need to see what XLF does here. But if market doesn't close strong today then it very well may be a top, and XLF may have to forego that 24.60's test.
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Post by walnut on Dec 7, 2016 15:06:46 GMT -5
In all fairness to the first month VIX futures, it can't mathematically get much lower than this. But VXX and the other scams could certainly trade lower, they are a function of the VIX futures term curve. I think we are at a temporary market top.
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Post by huh on Dec 7, 2016 15:16:59 GMT -5
Biggest up day in a long, long time and VIX scams hardly down. Something definitely up.
(...or is it down? [shrug])
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Post by walnut on Dec 7, 2016 15:28:31 GMT -5
I figure that right now, the only way for VXX to decline would be for January to drop, up to $1. That would mean a contango of about 9.5 and that would bring VXX down at most 50 cents. But for now, that is really all that is left until contango losses take their toll, which is a slower drop than we have been seeing on VXX for the last 2 months.
In other words, the easiest money shorting VXX is done for now.
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Post by huh on Dec 7, 2016 15:41:04 GMT -5
I don't want to short this as long as XLF is <24.60 and still rising. So even though VIX scams are flashing all the warning signals, I'll wait to short. Hopefully we get a ridiculous gap up or something to knock those VIX scams down.
But this is really some crazy unusual action in the VIX scams.
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Post by huh on Dec 7, 2016 15:47:07 GMT -5
So hard not to short here. Biggest up day since I don't know when and VIX scams green.
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Post by huh on Dec 7, 2016 15:49:20 GMT -5
I'm seeing contango at 17%, all VIX futures contracts are red, yet VIX scams (and their NAVs) are green? How is that even possible?
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Post by walnut on Dec 7, 2016 16:03:08 GMT -5
I suppose that VXX is predicting some volatility is possible around Christmas.
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Post by huh on Dec 7, 2016 16:08:15 GMT -5
VX_F hit its long term downside target today while filling its last remaining downside gap.
Spot VIX did exactly the same thing.
If you remember back, I had a possible upside target for S&P for 2235-2245.
All I can say is if bulls ignore today's warning signals over the next couple days, they do so at their own peril.
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Post by huh on Dec 7, 2016 16:29:31 GMT -5
I know I've said it before but I don't think this next pullback will be an ordinary pullback.
Far too many names (literally ~150 by my count - and that's just where I decided to stop) have downsides of 30-50%.
And remember, I warned mroe than 2 years ago now that the final run would likely be led by banks.
Well...
JMHO FWIW
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Post by birthmark on Dec 7, 2016 17:14:24 GMT -5
I too don't think this is the top.
GL
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Post by huh on Dec 7, 2016 17:26:13 GMT -5
I'm gonna be all alone!!! Ah well, not the first time. LOL ( going full bull for new ATHs back on 02/12 was another of those times, hee hee. But, unfortunately, so was going full bear back in late '11 )
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