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Post by huh on Apr 20, 2016 11:38:25 GMT -5
This pullback in oil appears to be building an even higher upside target. Oil >34.40 now would get 40. Oil took the scenic route, but finally got >40 for ~30% gain since. The recent double-bottom points to ~43.50. Oil 43.50 Double-Bottom target finally hit for +26% (whole trade was since <30.00 for ~45%)
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Post by birthmark on Apr 20, 2016 11:39:22 GMT -5
Still holding my WMB. Nice bounce the last 2 days. Think the market still goes up Huh-- our friend MNKD has begun it's descent
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Post by huh on Apr 20, 2016 11:43:15 GMT -5
Still holding my WMB. Nice bounce the last 2 days. Think the market still goes up Huh-- our friend MNKD has begun it's descent "MNKD, you are now cleared for landing. Commence to waypoint Charlie and descend to angel .50's for final approach. Wheels on roof at .20's."
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Post by huh on Apr 20, 2016 11:52:53 GMT -5
Come on VXX, die!!! (as Jack would say) Thank you
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Post by huh on Apr 20, 2016 11:53:13 GMT -5
Oil did it's thing. VIX is doing it's thing. Now come on, gold, you're up to bat
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Post by clinton on Apr 20, 2016 11:55:10 GMT -5
check this out
look at a QQQ daily chart
look at the sell volume yesterday
42.5M shares sold
THATS some distribution
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Post by huh on Apr 20, 2016 12:04:18 GMT -5
Watching CLF for the breakout backtest ~3.75 The fact that CLF didn't backtest while down there tells me that this iH&S will likely fail. However, it could go on to see another 10%+ from here (~4.02) for a higher high >4.45. But I'm personally not interested now. Too many resistance in between where it could fail and a H&S come into play. It now looks like only another final squeeze move like so many others out there (yet another H&S-RS-Squeeze) Killing my call for CLF higher from 3.75 here at 4.70. Too volatile. Was stopped on the call once from 3.75-3.88, now again from 3.99-4.69. I'm done watching it. +3% and +18%
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Post by jacksrbtr on Apr 20, 2016 12:10:23 GMT -5
Come on VXX, die!!! (as Jack would say) And THATs putting it mildly!
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Post by huh on Apr 20, 2016 12:29:08 GMT -5
Lots of really, really good traders shorting the market right here, for the 2nd or third time already this week alone. And they were doing it last week & getting stopped out then too.
I still think they're a little early (but only a little).
I hope I'm right.
[gulp]
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Post by huh on Apr 20, 2016 12:33:46 GMT -5
Come on VXX, die!!! (as Jack would say) Thank you Looks like VXX wants ~15.15
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Post by huh on Apr 20, 2016 12:54:05 GMT -5
I know I've said this over and over, but I really don't want to see anyone here get caught up in a whirlwind "everyone's gotta buy it" blow-off top. There's likely still some upside here, but not much IMO. SPX 2138-2165 or so is my best guess. And I've posted many good play ideas for this move since mid-Feb and so far they're playing out pretty well. Looking over the charts again last night I'm even more convinced of this as a final topping move. First of all, there's the whole thread I did back in 2014 predicting this sort of move (H&S-squeezes), and that it would likely peak ~SPX 2138. And so far those are the patterns that have developed. And not only have so many things created this pattern, they're also showing smaller versions of the same pattern within the larger one, and even smaller versions within that smaller one, and...so on. Basically the algos are running fractals, and those fractals are getting very tight. But it's not just that pattern that signals this as a top. It's what's rallying, the gaps that are getting filled, the FIBs that are getting tested and so much more. Most importantly though it's the FIB extensions. So many things out there are nearing (or already at) their 1.618 or even 2.618 FIB extensions of those Double-Bottoms they made back in Jan & Feb. Those FIB extensions nearly always predict the peak of a squeeze. And remember the formula I mentioned in that old and now well worn thread re: the final squeeze? ... Now for the last & perhaps most important thing to consider: x=S&P500 '07 high y=S&P500 '09 low (( x- y)*1.618)+ y= ? And don't forget z+7 for a morning gap up Well that's the formula for the SPX 1.618 FIB extension of the '07-'09 crash. It equals 2138.04. Now look at the resistance we saw in May of last year when the market got close to this number. JMO P.S. this will be my last long-winded rant about why this is likely a top - because if you're not convinced already you never will be, or, worse, I'll be wrong. LOL. Either way, there won't be any point
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Post by huh on Apr 20, 2016 14:18:15 GMT -5
Oil did it's thing. VIX is doing it's thing. Now come on, gold, you're up to bat It's official. Gold is my trading nemesis. I just can't get it right.
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Post by novie08 on Apr 20, 2016 14:18:47 GMT -5
quite a takedown in Gold right there (milliseconds)...I see the banks confessing to manipulation has had no effect... Clint, was the oil inventories report unexpectedly low? Dollar +, oil +. No comprendo,
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Post by novie08 on Apr 20, 2016 14:20:09 GMT -5
Oil did it's thing. VIX is doing it's thing. Now come on, gold, you're up to bat It's official. Gold is my trading nemesis. I just can't get it right. If it makes you feel any better, it's the most manipulated of the manipulated.
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Post by novie08 on Apr 20, 2016 15:23:07 GMT -5
So, who thinks the top is in until it ramps back up for the election? I'm thinking if not today, then with 3 trading days and as you know, I'm frequently WRONG!
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Post by huh on Apr 20, 2016 15:27:17 GMT -5
So, who thinks the top is in until it ramps back up for the election? I'm thinking if not today, then with 3 trading days and as you know, I'm frequently WRONG! Not quite yet IMO. Market still green for month/week and green even today. Also, not even close to losing the uptrend. It can still go ballistic.
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Post by walnut on Apr 20, 2016 22:32:25 GMT -5
So, who thinks the top is in until it ramps back up for the election? I'm thinking if not today, then with 3 trading days and as you know, I'm frequently WRONG! I think we gotta be close but I'm also frequently wrong. The way that VXX bounced back up was curious.
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Post by clinton on Apr 21, 2016 9:19:20 GMT -5
Out FCX 12.23 for +17.6%. This adds to the previous +19% trade. I'm done with this one. wow, good job. FCX getting crushed, beautiful exit.
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