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Post by jacksrbtr on May 14, 2016 10:56:43 GMT -5
Continental Gold analysis:
Assume that Continental is successful in securing a 50% loan and 50% equity raise to finance the plant's construction.
They need to raise $380M for mine-plant construction, half in debt and half in equity. So $190M equity.
Current value is $2/share (CGOOF) x 138M shares = $280M, so add $190M dilution to that one gets $470M equity and valuation goes down by a dilution factor of $280M/$470M = 0.60 or 40%.
Assuming 350,000 oz/year production and net of $400/oz then the distribution will be something like $140M/230M shares or about $0.61 per share. That is still a $10/share income price over the lifetime of the mine. Could be more. But remember that is only Buritica which is about a third of the project holdings.
My advice to any of you out there who owns any Continental is to hang in there...stay healthy too - we are still 3yrs away from getting any ROI starting yet.
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Post by novie08 on May 17, 2016 21:15:06 GMT -5
Ah, the years roll on! and here we all are. Best to everyone.
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Post by huh on May 18, 2016 18:58:54 GMT -5
CNL closed the 05/10 downside gap with its LOD
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Post by jacksrbtr on May 18, 2016 19:14:16 GMT -5
Ah, the years roll on! and here we all are. Best to everyone. Yer starting to sound like senescent Novi with his "You look in the mirror and there you are." Bwahahahaha
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Post by jacksrbtr on May 18, 2016 19:39:03 GMT -5
CNL closed the 05/10 downside gap with its LOD Good eyes Huh!
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Post by walnut on May 18, 2016 21:41:54 GMT -5
Ah, the years roll on! and here we all are. Best to everyone. Yer starting to sound like senescent Novi with his "You look in the mirror and there you are." Bwahahahaha He stole all of his stuff from Boethius. “The greatest misery in adverse fortune is once to have been happy.” ― Boethius, The Consolation of Philosophy
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Post by novie08 on May 19, 2016 12:16:38 GMT -5
Miners bucking the trend, maybe just a DCB...CGOOF +6%!!!
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Post by huh on May 24, 2016 8:52:15 GMT -5
CNL may have seen LOD for move back to gap fill in 2.70's 2.70's hit
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Post by jacksrbtr on May 24, 2016 16:39:47 GMT -5
Should be somewhat "fugly" tomorrow. Gap Huh mentioned was closed, 3-bar surge ended today with a topping tail, and gold is going into the crapper what with the $dollar on resurge/rate hike horseshit, etc.
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Post by novie08 on May 24, 2016 17:50:18 GMT -5
It's more about the dollar than the rate hike imho. But to reiterate a famous quote, what difference does it make?
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Post by jacksrbtr on May 26, 2016 14:01:06 GMT -5
Alright - so I wuz off by a day SUE ME!!!! Huh - if the bear flag plays out what do you get as the downside target? Around 1.92-ish?
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Post by huh on May 26, 2016 16:25:18 GMT -5
Away from the computer but I'll check it when I get home tonight.
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Post by huh on May 26, 2016 23:05:33 GMT -5
I don't see that as a bear flag. It definitely isn't in a parallel channel, and the it's not even FIBbing like a bear flag should.
However, what I do see is even worse - all of this year's gains only a bear market dead cat bounce and an ultimate downside target ~0.87.
If you want to know why & see a chart of it, let me know. It's actually pretty interesting - and the same set-up I've been using for predicting these up moves (and more to come) in things like SPX, AAPL, IWM, etc. The only difference is that CNL is ahead of the others and has already hit its expected upside target.
I know you mentioned before that you're holding CNL no matter what, so I won't take the time to make my chart all pretty unless you want to see it.
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Post by huh on May 26, 2016 23:12:22 GMT -5
Next gold support is 1209-1211. I suppose it could do the H&S-RS-Squeeze from there, but given my track record with it, I'm not betting on it! BTW, gold tested 1211 already tonight. So that CNL downside target may not matter for the next few days anyway.
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Post by jacksrbtr on May 27, 2016 5:46:02 GMT -5
I don't see that as a bear flag. It definitely isn't in a parallel channel, and the it's not even FIBbing like a bear flag should. However, what I do see is even worse - all of this year's gains only a bear market dead cat bounce and an ultimate downside target ~0.87. If you want to know why & see a chart of it, let me know. It's actually pretty interesting - and the same set-up I've been using for predicting these up moves (and more to come) in things like SPX, AAPL, IWM, etc. The only difference is that CNL is ahead of the others and has already hit its expected upside target. I know you mentioned before that you're holding CNL no matter what, so I won't take the time to make my chart all pretty unless you want to see it. Thanks huh - nevermind about the details.
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Post by huh on May 27, 2016 7:08:15 GMT -5
Thanks huh - nevermind about the details. Okely dokely. Besides, I'm trying hard not to post charts that are very bearish. It's like arguing with my wife. Whether I'm right or not, I lose either way.
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Post by birthmark on May 27, 2016 11:25:45 GMT -5
I, for one, Huh like your bearish charts!!
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Post by novie08 on May 29, 2016 11:18:25 GMT -5
I, for one, Huh like your bearish charts!! We need to know the bottom targets for sure! (Somehow that doesn't sound right). Trying again: we need to know the target lows.
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Post by jacksrbtr on Aug 25, 2016 10:19:13 GMT -5
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Post by jacksrbtr on Sept 6, 2016 16:12:38 GMT -5
3-Bar Surge on CNL.TO prolly see somekind of reversal tomorrow:
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