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Post by jacksrbtr on Jul 21, 2015 11:24:45 GMT -5
"Goldman Sachs likes European stocks over US stocks"Scary, but I agree what is the timeframe? Euro will obviously be going down, dollar up. Thank goodness Walnut showed up! Herc must be busy with the twins. Jack is working out. Yup you nailed it Novi - everyday from 0700 to 0830-0900 in the gym. Been working on my grandfathers 2x8'L woodworkers bench it's magnificent tiger maple. He was NYPD too - he caught the head of the infamous Chinese Tong gang in NYC's Chinatown musta been in the 20-30s but they didn't give him any credit for the collar because the SOB hung himself with his own pigtail in lock-up. No shit.
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Post by huh on Jul 21, 2015 12:09:36 GMT -5
SPX4 key FIB supports at 2115 & 2110.75
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Post by birthmark on Jul 21, 2015 12:14:54 GMT -5
Could be a short term long trade in MNKD if rises >5.34. Upside target low 6.60's. Tight stop (1.5-2%) This one's iffy, so if played, be sure to use a tight stop (it shouldn't go any lower than 5.25 now if it's going to work) Thanks for this Huh. Just got some here at 5.26 GL
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Post by huh on Jul 21, 2015 12:17:59 GMT -5
This one's iffy, so if played, be sure to use a tight stop (it shouldn't go any lower than 5.25 now if it's going to work) Thanks for this Huh. Just got some here at 5.26 GL Don't thank me unless it works! No matter what, have a stop if 5.16 or less. My long term downside target is much lower - though I could say that about everything right now. Only trying to time one of those crazy bounces this thing gets from time to time. If this thing instead turns into a bear flag, which it would under 5.17, then downside target is ~4.70. If over 5.38 you can raise the stop to break even.
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Post by birthmark on Jul 21, 2015 12:21:58 GMT -5
Thanks. Funny I have a stop at 5.15. Earnings are Aug 3rd.
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Post by huh on Jul 21, 2015 12:24:50 GMT -5
AAPL trying to form an intraday iH&S here to get back to the HOD, but I'd still rather see it close that gap ~129.50 first (stop run under 130)
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Post by dino on Jul 21, 2015 12:54:56 GMT -5
you could hardly do better than to just stay short vxx all the time. just buy back when it goes above the 30 or 50 dma to protect yourself from a bear which could shift the paradigm to backwardation long-term. ...or hedge yourself somehow on the corrections. I honestly think this is the play long term with the 3x etfs if you can find shares and have the margin to hold. Just think if you shorted FAZ/TZA/DRV back in 09. Even if we fill that gap in SPX in the 800s someday, the decay alone would still have you profitable. I remember Timber and Cosmic shorting FAZ early on with intent of NEVER covering. They were adding little by little on every pop and watching the decay eat it away.
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Post by crumbdon on Jul 21, 2015 13:16:57 GMT -5
The pps on those (factored for reverse splits) is effectively zero. They reach a point where you are better off to cover, take your 99% return, and move your money elsewhere.
Shorts are great, but you can never get more than 100% even if they go to zero. Sure, great return, but keep your money working once the law of diminishing returns kicks in.
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Post by huh on Jul 21, 2015 13:59:57 GMT -5
I wouldn't necessarily short it here (maybe next couple days if it gaps up), but UTX under 97.30 would set-up a downside target of 77.15
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Post by walnut on Jul 21, 2015 14:18:15 GMT -5
you could hardly do better than to just stay short vxx all the time. just buy back when it goes above the 30 or 50 dma to protect yourself from a bear which could shift the paradigm to backwardation long-term. ...or hedge yourself somehow on the corrections. I honestly think this is the play long term with the 3x etfs if you can find shares and have the margin to hold. Just think if you shorted FAZ/TZA/DRV back in 09. Even if we fill that gap in SPX in the 800s someday, the decay alone would still have you profitable. I remember Timber and Cosmic shorting FAZ early on with intent of NEVER covering. They were adding little by little on every pop and watching the decay eat it away. I am looking for an effective VXX hedge several hours a day- no shit, I am that psycho about it. The biggest problem, aside from the fact that there is just no way to truly own the VIX, is that ONE of these clockwork corrections could be the advent of a huge bear market. Causing a year or two of backwardation, and your VXX position will probably never survive that. So, the best thing I have come up with is to just buy back when the VXX comes up a couple of bucks, and take your minor losses.
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Post by walnut on Jul 21, 2015 14:25:11 GMT -5
If you could own the VIX, you would have a perfect short-term hedge, with no decay, and you would be very wealthy soon. But even that hedge would not protect you from long-term backwardation. Just severe short-term spikes.
What "synthetic" position, composed of some combination of futures and or options, closely approximates the VIX? I wish I knew. have never found anything that works
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Post by dino on Jul 21, 2015 15:12:11 GMT -5
...or hedge yourself somehow on the corrections. I honestly think this is the play long term with the 3x etfs if you can find shares and have the margin to hold. Just think if you shorted FAZ/TZA/DRV back in 09. Even if we fill that gap in SPX in the 800s someday, the decay alone would still have you profitable. I remember Timber and Cosmic shorting FAZ early on with intent of NEVER covering. They were adding little by little on every pop and watching the decay eat it away. I am looking for an effective VXX hedge several hours a day- no shit, I am that psycho about it. The biggest problem, aside from the fact that there is just no way to truly own the VIX, is that ONE of these clockwork corrections could be the advent of a huge bear market. Causing a year or two of backwardation, and your VXX position will probably never survive that. So, the best thing I have come up with is to just buy back when the VXX comes up a couple of bucks, and take your minor losses. Yeah, a vix etf is probably a bad example of shorting and holding since it's not based the price of an index. It's definitely a different dynamic. Ever play a weekly VIX option during volatile times? NOT for the faint of heart!!
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Post by huh on Jul 21, 2015 16:25:11 GMT -5
Yeah, what's up with that? Bad numbers? I really, really, expected AAPL to gap up tomorrow, not down (now lower than 129.50 anyway)
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Post by crumbdon on Jul 21, 2015 16:32:23 GMT -5
Speaking of faint..... Owners of LifeLock (LOCK) took a 49%(!) haircut today.
I'll bet they taste sour in their mouths right now.
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Post by huh on Jul 21, 2015 22:32:23 GMT -5
Something doesn't feel right about this ER move in AAPL. Normally as a "chartician" we can normally see why we were wrong about a move. And most of the time we can even see the possibility of being wrong, and why, before hand. But in this case, I don't see this move in the charts at all. And currencies, commods and VIX futures not reflecting this big a move in NAZ futures either. We'll see in the morning I guess. What makes it even stranger though is that just the other day GOOG's after earnings move was the single largest market cap up move for a single day in the market, EVER. And now AAPL will make the single largest down move? Or at least the second largest? Odd. On another note, S&P still near all times highs yet only 54% of S&P 500 companies are trading above there 200dma, and only 49% above there 50dma.
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