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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 10:49:48 GMT -5
Gold just caught a quick bid there, even with oil falling. Fear trade? Or MM-Mulligan? It could do what oil did - an MM-Mulligan. I wouldn't get excited about it, even for the short term, unless it can break out above 1177.60 (an upside gap fill).
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 10:57:55 GMT -5
VIX scams not so excited about this pullback so far. Normally the leveraged ones would be up nearly 5% with this kind of move.
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 11:03:17 GMT -5
Took tiny gains on my oil short for now. Probably a lot of meat on the bone there, but I want to see if this market squeezes or not. Also, it's Friday, and these etf's like to dance too much (contango!).
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 11:05:42 GMT -5
Come on Mr. Market, make that lower low. We need to see if this is going to squeeze or not. There it is. Moment of truth coming up, perhaps ~2085 but more importantly watch that AAPL support ~127.94.
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 11:16:50 GMT -5
...but more importantly watch that AAPL support ~127.94. Tagged 127.93 on that pull back.
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 11:22:12 GMT -5
...I'd use a stop around 9 though. Just looked at the daily chart and there's a potential iH&S there for a target ~14.00. Too risky to short without some downside first. JMO OREX traded as low as 6.29 this morning, or down as much as 21% overnight. If you shorted OREX ~8.90, try to cover anywhere between 6.50-6.69 for a 25%+ gain. The 76.4 FIB support & 10dma are at 6.51. And there is a gap below as low as ~5.80. However, if this is actually an iH&S playing out for a move to ~$14, today's move is the backtest of the neckline in the 6.60's. DISCLAIMER: I'm not recommending a long in this today. I'd wait to see all of today's action before even thinking of trying it long. There's also other gaps down around 3.85 & 3.50 (head test?). It would at least have to prove itself over that neckline first. Looks as if OREX will lose that support I mentioned - perhaps as low as 6.15 or so. If short, I'd at least set a stop above 6.70 after it falls into the 6.50's/6.60's.
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 11:24:54 GMT -5
...but more importantly watch that AAPL support ~127.94. Tagged 127.93 on that pull back. AAPL losing that support. Market could really dump today. I'm not going to short it though - too much risk it'll squeeze. I'd rather sit with my buy orders and see if they hit (none have yet). Even if the market dumps big, I don't think it's seen it's top yet. And if it dumps really big, I'd likely be long into October then. Significant tops and bottoms happen in October or March. We only need to see which this will be. JMO
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 11:31:27 GMT -5
S&P would have to move >2092 to signal a squeeze. That's not looking very likely right now.
The larger H&S downside target is ~2055.55.
...and where'd everybody go?
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 11:37:13 GMT -5
...but come on, you have to admit, I had some pretty damn good calls this week even if the market decides not to squeeze this H&S pattern in SPX. I did mention the possibility of ~2060 for this pullback (last week - below). I feel like I was channeling theMist this last week or so - called out the potential H&S pattern last week, the daily highs and lows in SPX within ~$1, the move in the dollar, and many others. SPX lost the 2107 FIB support I mentioned yesterday. Could see a 2060-2090 backtest now on this move. Something like 2106, then pop to 2111, then 2103, then pop to 2110, would set-up a complex H&S for it. But that's the best case scenario. JMO Actually, I wasn't too far off with this scenario so far. It's the rising dollar that makes it so likely. But it's all on AAPL right now. Hopefully SPX ends with a late day squeeze - even though those are SOOO rare [/sarc]. Be sure to have your buy lists ready & orders in. The bottom could happen quick.
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 12:20:17 GMT -5
Larger H&S target actually ~2055.75. It didn't back test the neckline, and that would occur ~2088.50 now. Over 2092 still the number needed to signal a squeeze.
BBL & BOL all. Seems when the action really begins, everyone disappears.
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Post by crumbdon on Mar 6, 2015 12:23:20 GMT -5
You get big kudos for your calls, Huh. Your targets, potential pivots, etc have all been spot-on. (And very helpful!) I do wonder if we get one nice intraday short-covering rally before continuing lower.
Keep up the good work, man.
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Post by crumbdon on Mar 6, 2015 12:30:34 GMT -5
FWIW, Huh, 2055-60 is what I've had my eye on for a couple of weeks. I hope it hits. I'll go long like Donkey Kong.
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 13:02:08 GMT -5
FWIW, Huh, 2055-60 is what I've had my eye on for a couple of weeks. I hope it hits. I'll go long like Donkey Kong. So many things seem to have so far to go yet to hit their buy targets. Almost as if SPX is pulling back harder than the stocks themselves. Exactly the opposite of what normally happens.
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 13:15:20 GMT -5
Even with today's spike, BAC still within a bearish set-up unless it can close near HOD...
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 13:27:32 GMT -5
10 things in tech you need to know today 1. Apple could unveil its new streaming service in June. A new report says it's going to be announced at WWDC. 2. There's a diagnostic port on the bottom of the Apple Watch that developers could use in the future. The six-hole port could make the device far more interesting. 3. Uber is suspending its UberX service on Seoul to try and avoid a complete ban. It wants to reach a compromise with local authorities. 4. There's a mysterious tent at the site where Apple's event will be held on Monday. It could be used as a showroom for the Apple Watch. 5. Google could partner with Huawei for its next Nexus phone. An analyst says that Google has chosen to work with the Chinese company on the new device. 6. Hotel chain Mandarin Oriental's credit card system was hacked. It's currently unknown whether customer data was exposed. 7. Apple has invited Facebook, BMW and other companies into a secret lab to finalize their Apple Watch apps. Developers aren't allowed to take their code home with them. 8. EA is shutting down Maxis, the developer of the popular Sim City game. Development is going to continue on the series, however. 9. Apple's larger iPad could come with a USB port. That would allow people to connect a keyboard and mouse. 10. Google's new wireless network is only going to work on the Nexus 6. It's just a small-scale experiment for now. Read more: www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-march-6-2015-3#ixzz3TbuUFIdY5 out of 10 news items dominated by AAPL. +1 Apple to join iconic Dow stock index
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 13:33:25 GMT -5
DRYS at the top of a multi-month downtrend channel here with 1.02. Would be short term bullish if it can close over it. DRYS a big time short until it breaks over that 1.02. If it goes on to only tag the bottom of that channel, minimum downside is in the .70's. >1.02 is the stop. (and the place to go long if broken - that resistance will be falling since it's a descending channel) DRYS: As a short term swing trade, I'd take the 14% or so & wait for next move.
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 13:57:48 GMT -5
S&P still needs to back test the neckline ~2088.50-2099. Without that, all of this becomes a false move. And the longer it takes to back test, the more likely this pattern could get squeezed.
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 14:09:19 GMT -5
S&P still needs to back test the neckline ~2088.50-2099. Without that, all of this becomes a false move. And the longer it takes to back test, the more likely this pattern could get squeezed. LOL And here...we...gOOO! Almost to the moment, a quick 6 points off the bottom. It's funny, sometimes it's not the patterns/supports you see in the charts but more of a feeling. A subtle change in something, perhaps simply the momentum.
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Post by crumbdon on Mar 6, 2015 14:16:27 GMT -5
S&P still needs to back test the neckline ~2088.50-2099. Without that, all of this becomes a false move. And the longer it takes to back test, the more likely this pattern could get squeezed. Kind of what I was thinking when I mentioned earlier about an intra-day short-covering rally. It would be just like a Friday for this to happen. I expect this down move to be fast and short-lived, though. Turnaround-Tuesday is just right around the corner, eh?
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Post by huh on Mar 6, 2015 14:16:51 GMT -5
Seriously, where'd everyone go? This isn't the ole 'cover your eyes and market goes green strategy', is it?
It doesn't work! (trust me)
Anyway, have a good weekend all.
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