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Post by crumbdon on Nov 6, 2014 21:52:35 GMT -5
I'd love to see a monster spike...AAPL 120's, GS 205, MSFT 55's, AMZN 313, IWM 118.70's+... And do it in only a day or two. Make it an easy decision. Unfortunately the market always seems to prefer the slow, agonizing approach. I thought I had the top target range pegged for SPX. But at the rate it's currently moving up, relative to the distance a couple of these names have to go yet, would send it quite a bit higher. Either a couple of these fail to meet their upside targets, most other things dump while these continue to rise, or SPX goes fully parabolic (versus semi-parabolic). We'll see. SPX is getting close now to the semi-parabolic target/resistance. And honestly, it's hard to imagine it breaking higher than that. The move that would follow would have to be steeper than these last 2-3 weeks. That kind of move I wouldn't believe in or bet on until I see it confirm first. A Fib guy I like to follow has had 2 upper targets in place recently, 2027ES (hit today), and 2040 as the stretch target. Hard to believe it will stop here, even though techs are stretched. But 2040 could come in a flash (like, say, tomorrow!) and setup a nice sell. He then has a fairly deep wave 2 pullback before a grand runup into year's end and next spring. Hmmmmmm..... If interested, here's the link to his latest (and I'm fairly certain this time that he is NOT Ukarl or Cosmic or any of those other ghosts from our past, lol. mAybE TEf??) www.marketwatch.com/story/november-will-be-a-buying-opportunity-2014-11-03
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Post by huh on Nov 7, 2014 8:29:10 GMT -5
Good info, crumbdon Thanks for posting. Will be interesting to see what happens here. I had a minimum target for this semi-parabolic move somewhere ~2065-2075 if it were to hit in the next couple days (sharply rising line). However, I too see those 2200-2400 potential targets. Also seeing higher potential targets; one for ~2800 and another ~3000. But these higher ones would be truly parabolic and hard for me to imagine S&P's p/e getting that high in such a short time. I had figured the semi-parabolic target might be the top. But some of the heavily weighted names (AAPL, MSFT) could still have some decent upside here. And I also know that every major top & bottom have occurred in either March or October since '90, and since we've already seen higher highs here in Nov - that could set-up a rally into EOY (2200-2400?) and then perhaps even on to March (the higher targets?). So will definitely be interesting to see what happens the next few days, especially if there is a pullback from the 2040 area. I see what the this guy is referring to re: the iH&S with Aug lows, but I highly doubt that happens. Two many rounded patterns already (H&S type patterns typically are sharp V's on the pivots) and missed too many of of the FIB pullbacks for the RS not being formed yet. Also, iH&S' that form at the top nearly always fail, even if they do form AND confirm. Also, I'm seeing that H&S-RS-Squeeze-To-New-Highs pattern, something I projected would happen a long time ago now. I for one can't ignore that potentially bearish pattern and will try a short against it. Downside target would be in the mid 1600's. But would need to hit the top BB, or higher, for it to complete the RS squeeze (and that sits ~2054 currently). JMHO
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Post by huh on Nov 7, 2014 10:01:40 GMT -5
..scratch that target I mentioned in MSFT. I measured it incorrectly. Actual upside target is ~52.25. And that IS a parabolic target.
Still want to see AAPL in the low to mid 120's, and would really like to see VIX much lower than here before feeling comfortable betting on at least a short term top.
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Post by crumbdon on Nov 7, 2014 10:12:32 GMT -5
Thanks for the reply, Huh. In the current environment, I will be the first to say that your projections appear much more likely.
Could be tough to guess right from here to year's end. If/when I play, it will be with tight stops. GL, man.
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Post by huh on Nov 7, 2014 13:26:00 GMT -5
Hard not to notice the momentum starting to slow here. Draw a line in SPX across all the lows since 10/22. Sitting on it right now (& actually lost it for a few brief moments yesterday & today). Market needs to pop here or lose the momentum (I think/hope it pops). 2060's/2070's would be the next target in that up channel. If it were to lose the channel support soon here, then ~2000-2005.
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Post by huh on Nov 7, 2014 14:53:09 GMT -5
..scratch that target I mentioned in MSFT. I measured it incorrectly. Actual upside target is ~52.25. And that IS a parabolic target. Still want to see AAPL in the low to mid 120's, and would really like to see VIX much lower than here before feeling comfortable betting on at least a short term top. Have another pattern target for MSFT over 52.00 (~52.02). Worst case support ~46.91. That would be a backtest of an iH&S, but backtests have been hard to come by lately.
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Post by huh on Nov 7, 2014 14:58:43 GMT -5
Hard not to notice the momentum starting to slow here. Draw a line in SPX across all the lows since 10/22. Sitting on it right now (& actually lost it for a few brief moments yesterday & today). Market needs to pop here or lose the momentum (I think/hope it pops). 2060's/2070's would be the next target in that up channel. If it were to lose the channel support soon here, then ~2000-2005. SPX is losing that short term uptrend. Support now 2027.25. Lose that and could see a quick flush (might actually get some backtests completed, such as MSFT ↑)
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Post by huh on Nov 7, 2014 16:53:21 GMT -5
Very interesting article from ST: jessefelder For the first time in history the public is no longer net long volatility stks.co/q105Q
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