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Post by huh on Sept 19, 2014 14:02:35 GMT -5
It's odd. I see only one sector doing even as well as the S&P today. The S&P is outperforming nearly everything within it.
IBB (bio), IYR (real estate), IYW (tech), IYH (healthcare), IYE (energy), IYJ (industrials), ITB (builders), IYT (transpo), IYF & XLF (financials) , IYM (materials), IJH (mid-cap), etc...
Only utilities higher, but not enough to cause the S&P to outperform. I don't know how they do it.
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Post by crumbdon on Sept 19, 2014 16:08:59 GMT -5
It's an unabashed, crystal clear illustration of how truly crooked this market is. Shoot- they don't even bother trying to hide it anymore.
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Post by huh on Sept 19, 2014 16:19:18 GMT -5
In a letter to investors announcing his firm’s demise, Rinehart Capital Partners LLC founder Andrew Cunagin: HFT’s ‘Circus Market’ and a ‘Dash for Trash’ — Fund Manager Lets LooseA few quotes I thought interesting: "...With yields ZIRPed and alpha dead, beta and the ethereal pursuit of “market-” and theme-driven (social media, bio-tech, Chinese internet) returns have become the only game in town, with central banks as the arbiter....
...Since the beginning of our fund’s drawdown in early 2012, a Bloomberg index of the “Worst Balance Sheet” companies of the S&P500 has returned to-date over +30% on an annualized basis. An MSCI index of the “Most-Shorted” companies of the Russell 3000—a proxy for the visibility of bad valuations, bad managements, and bad fundamentals—has also returned over +30% annualized.
These perversions are even more pronounced within EMs, exacerbated by record fund outflows in the first half of 2014, exceeding even those of the 2008 crisis..."
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Post by sloop on Sept 19, 2014 17:41:37 GMT -5
Herceg, One thing I noticed in my trading was once I took a large loss I was sure to follow it up with another really large loss because I was trying to make up for the first large loss and then it just threw me into a panic and I didn't know how to stop making mistakes and not all of this was market losses We bought a ranch sight unseen unbeknown to us it was next to a dairy we couldn't eat dinner without flies attacking our meal every night so we ended up eating out every single night and for lunch and for breakfast, it was just one loss after another after another and all added up to a $1.5 million loss. Our neighbor burned his house down right next to ours thinking that he was ruled by a dead Indian chief telling him what to do. I mean everything that could go wrong went wrong on this move to Idaho but I think were all straightened out now but it's been a challenge. We tried to relax during Christmas and we took a cruise to Hawaii for Christmas it was outrageous! on that trip I lost $335,000 trading on the friggin trip Because we lost satellite reception and I couldn't get to my trade fast enough almost 2 days later when I saw what had happened I was down well over a quarter million dollars all because something had gone wrong with the Internet connection and it just never ended I was spiraling out of control. And then when I got back I held a stock over earnings which I never do ...it plunged 17 points the morning that that happened if the market was open they would've sold me out because I was on margin and I would've owed the broker $90,000 When the market opens for trading it had come back to where I was able to salvage 30,000 of my own money and I took that money and sold both homes that I had left. we rented a house and I learned how to play options and once again I put my neck on the chopping block . If I had no kids and no wife and nobody depending on me to get them out of this hell I put them in I have no doubt I would've put a gun to my head I have absolutely no doubt. I'm very rarely come on the site maybe once every seven months or something, but to be shocked to see walnut with some BS about I might've said something about something, whatever the hell It was, I was just shocked as hell.
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Post by jacksrbtr on Sept 19, 2014 19:09:49 GMT -5
Sept solstice is this coming Monday. ITMS will prolly suggest we turn down then. Play Twilight Zone theme tune here.
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Post by dino on Sept 19, 2014 19:46:06 GMT -5
All 3 major indices above their top BB's with a gap-up open. Scares me. Would have to respect the potential for a short term top if SPX were to lose 2011. But otherwise, squeeze away! For the sake of irrelevance, please delete everything but that last sentence. OMG. I just laughed hysterically.
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Post by sloop on Sept 19, 2014 22:53:45 GMT -5
Sept solstice is this coming Monday. ITMS will prolly suggest we turn down then. Play Twilight Zone theme tune here. I had to let ITMS go after years of following them. Out of all the Subscriptions I've tried they were second to the worst. Are you still a subscriber? What do you think of them Jack? I give them credit for their day trading site I've actually paid for that for a while and they are really good at catching the bounces but you've got to be on the ball to catch them. they do hit them pretty much exactly where they think it's going to bounce. But as far as the swing trading they're horrible
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Post by sloop on Sept 19, 2014 22:58:27 GMT -5
Hey guys I think I've overstayed my welcome this is no longer my home so I'm going to bow out. you guys have a good time it was really nice talking to you all. I'll stop by sometime take care bye. PS..... I hope I don't have anymore exciting stories to tell you next time I come around however I will let you know that I have got a letter from the IRS just last week so we're entering another unknown ......Take care.
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Post by huh on Sept 20, 2014 9:10:08 GMT -5
It's an unabashed, crystal clear illustration of how truly crooked this market is. Shoot- they don't even bother trying to hide it anymore. I've been thinking about this since you wrote it; wondering why for me at least the current market is so annoying. And I came to the conclusion that it would take far too many words to explain. But the simple fact is that for those of us who watch the charts closely, it's not that the markets are simply rising. Hell, that's a good thing! But it's the way it's happening: Junk rallying - IMO BBRY is probably the most overvalued company out there. ~40% drops in revenue EACH year for at least the last 2 years. Went from 50% market to share to something like 3/10% market share in only 5 years. And last year the company lost as much cash as 87% of it's entire revenue! I mean come on, you don't have to be an analyst to know that the company is beyond bankrupt. Yet the company is up nearly double since mid-December last year. This is only one example. Index creative math - What perhaps bothers me most is the separation from the indices and the stocks they represent. Indices can easily be held up regardless of what the average or the median of the stocks within it are doing. Example...late 2012/early 2013, AAPL fell 45%. At that time, AAPL made up ~22% of the Nasdaq 100. During that same time, NDX rallied about 1%. OK, only 1%, no big deal right? Well NDX should have lost ~10% given the AAPL weighting. And I know, many will say something else rallied in it's place. But that's the whole point! The indices are nothing more than a shell game and are designed to pretty much only go up for anything less than a major worldwide financial meltdown. There's no reflection of overall fundamental reality in the indices. ...and that whole AAPL pullback is another story on it's own - huge pullback in AAPL at the same time the company is doing it's largest share buyback ever. And then when the buyback is complete, and only then, the stock rallies - along with a split to ensure that retail traders have no psychological barriers now with the price to keep them from buying. There were no sentiment changes when AAPL first topped. There were no fundamental changes either. The only thing that changed was that AAPL wanted to buyback billions of shares. There's more. Much more. But for us that study these charts diligently, and truly do understand business valuation, it's plain to see that MM's have complete control over the indices, as well as, the price of individual stocks. They can move stocks & indices anywhere they want, whenever they want. Even if there is a sudden fundamental change due to some surprise news (good or bad), the stock/indices will not react to it until MM's have their HFTs ready and positioned for it. (all of those MM-Mulligans come to my mind). And that's what's frustrating. The market should be a reflection of the buying and selling demands of stocks. If it were, sentiment should have a huge sway in a stock's direction. But it doesn't. In fact, it's the complete opposite. It's a a system now designed to take advantage of that sentiment - every single penny of it. But so long as these "harmless" HFTs are allowed to control things, this is what we have to deal with. And here's a dilemma - unplug those HFTs and who knows what might happen. Go back and look at a very long term chart of the S&P and look at these two dates: 1974, that's when computers were first allowed to be used in the exchanges, and, 1995, that's when HFTs started registering as a % of the overall trades (it was 0% before that).
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Post by crumbdon on Sept 20, 2014 12:59:32 GMT -5
Hey guys I think I've overstayed my welcome this is no longer my home so I'm going to bow out. you guys have a good time it was really nice talking to you all. I'll stop by sometime take care bye. PS..... I hope I don't have anymore exciting stories to tell you next time I come around however I will let you know that I have got a letter from the IRS just last week so we're entering another unknown ......Take care. Thanks for checking in, Sloop. It's been good to hear from you, though I wish the stories you've shared could've been happier ones (for your sake, not ours). Still hoping you decide to stick around, but we will all respect your choice as being the best one for you. Take care, man. Tell Idaho to be good to you
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Post by crumbdon on Sept 20, 2014 13:16:41 GMT -5
It's an unabashed, crystal clear illustration of how truly crooked this market is. Shoot- they don't even bother trying to hide it anymore. I've been thinking about this since you wrote it; wondering why for me at least the current market is so annoying. And I came to the conclusion that it would take far too many words to explain. But the simple fact is that for those of us who watch the charts closely, it's not that the markets are simply rising. Hell, that's a good thing! But it's the way it's happening: Junk rallying - IMO BBRY is probably the most overvalued company out there. ~40% drops in revenue EACH year for at least the last 2 years. Went from 50% market to share to something like 3/10% market share in only 5 years. And last year the company lost as much cash as 87% of it's entire revenue! I mean come on, you don't have to be an analyst to know that the company is beyond bankrupt. Yet the company is up nearly double since mid-December last year. This is only one example. Index creative math - What perhaps bothers me most is the separation from the indices and the stocks they represent. Indices can easily be held up regardless of what the average or the median of the stocks within it are doing. Example...late 2012/early 2013, AAPL fell 45%. At that time, AAPL made up ~22% of the Nasdaq 100. During that same time, NDX rallied about 1%. OK, only 1%, no big deal right? Well NDX should have lost ~10% given the AAPL weighting. And I know, many will say something else rallied in it's place. But that's the whole point! The indices are nothing more than a shell game and are designed to pretty much only go up for anything less than a major worldwide financial meltdown. There's no reflection of overall fundamental reality in the indices. ...and that whole AAPL pullback is another story on it's own - huge pullback in AAPL at the same time the company is doing it's largest share buyback ever. And then when the buyback is complete, and only then, the stock rallies - along with a split to ensure that retail traders have no psychological barriers now with the price to keep them from buying. There were no sentiment changes when AAPL first topped. There were no fundamental changes either. The only thing that changed was that AAPL wanted to buyback billions of shares. There's more. Much more. But for us that study these charts diligently, and truly do understand business valuation, it's plain to see that MM's have complete control over the indices, as well as, the price of individual stocks. They can move stocks & indices anywhere they want, whenever they want. Even if there is a sudden fundamental change due to some surprise news (good or bad), the stock/indices will not react to it until MM's have their HFTs ready and positioned for it. (all of those MM-Mulligans come to my mind). And that's what's frustrating. The market should be a reflection of the buying and selling demands of stocks. If it were, sentiment should have a huge sway in a stock's direction. But it doesn't. In fact, it's the complete opposite. It's a a system now designed to take advantage of that sentiment - every single penny of it. But so long as these "harmless" HFTs are allowed to control things, this is what we have to deal with. And here's a dilemma - unplug those HFTs and who knows what might happen. Go back and look at a very long term chart of the S&P and look at these two dates: 1974, that's when computers were first allowed to be used in the exchanges, and, 1995, that's when HFTs started registering as a % of the overall trades (it was 0% before that). This is a classic example of why so many of us on this board value having you around, despite the fact that that you continually beat yourself up over "bad" calls. You just perfectly summarized all that has been on my mind (market-related, that is) the last few months. And I will agree with your assessment that "There's no reflection of overall fundamental reality in the indices." In fact, I think that's what bothers me most. Markets have always zig-zagged back and forth between overbought vs. oversold. But the time-honored principle of Reversion to the Mean always kept things I check before it got too out of control (mostly). Maybe that kicks in soon here, but everything you've said and I've observed tells me that from here on, that will only happen when someone gives the order. Sure it's fun to have easy money rain from the heavens in a never-ending upside run. But what happens when something truly catastrophic happens, beyond the control of even the Crooksters? Think; 9-11, Japan earthquake, or name your disaster. What happens to a market that has pillars under it formed only of an illusionary shell filled with Q.E. hot air? With no established , tested supports underneath it for a loooooooong ways down? It was really hard watching some of my senior friends go through the wealth destruction that occurred during 2008. Some are still working into their 70's now, only just now getting back to where they were. Anyway, I could ramble forever, but suffice it to say you nailed it with your assessment. Some days I wish I'd never discovered trading, lol.
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