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Post by novie08 on Aug 27, 2014 16:04:02 GMT -5
Went long just a little at eod to test the theory. Bought 100 sh @10.92...stock is +36% YTD and looks like a POS. May not be worth the trouble.
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Post by huh on Aug 27, 2014 16:39:17 GMT -5
I wouldn't say it looks like a POS. Been in a straight up rally since early June. That's about the only technical thing working against it here.
But there could easily be a case made for the dollar facing some weakness soon here - peaked almost exactly this time last year before an 8 month sell-off, and UUP very near it's iH&S pattern upside target that began in March of this year (that target is ~22).
Could also make an argument for a large iH&S in AKS pointing to just under $26 - the Jan '10 highs (3 day chart).
But again, it's been a monster move for this stock. It hasn't really rested at all since mid July. So it should need to at least consolidate a bit here (or it would have to go parabolic - a move over 11.50 could make that happen).
Very near term FIB supports are 10.64 (50%), 10.46 (61.8) & 10.25 (76.4) if it does pullback. I personally wouldn't even think of shorting unless it were to lose that 10.25.
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Post by novie08 on Aug 27, 2014 20:20:44 GMT -5
All true. Was looking at the straight-up part and negative EPS. Appreciate your input.
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Post by huh on Aug 28, 2014 15:19:37 GMT -5
10.46 exact LOD.
A move >10.63 would be pretty bullish now; <10.46 bearish.
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Post by novie08 on Aug 28, 2014 16:06:46 GMT -5
10.46 exact LOD. A move >10.63 would be pretty bullish now; <10.46 bearish. Wonderful! Should have asked you before I bought.
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Post by huh on Aug 28, 2014 16:30:25 GMT -5
10.46 exact LOD. A move >10.63 would be pretty bullish now; <10.46 bearish. Wonderful! Should have asked you before I bought. If you had, it wouldn't have worked anyway.
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Post by huh on Aug 29, 2014 10:17:43 GMT -5
Not liking where AKS peaked with that HOD. Would move support/stop up from <10.46 to <10.56. Needs to move over 10.85 again to stay bullish.
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Post by huh on Aug 29, 2014 10:59:47 GMT -5
Not liking where AKS peaked with that HOD. Would move support/stop up from <10.46 to <10.56. Needs to move over 10.85 again to stay bullish. Would move stop up to <10.73 now (mental stop). Expecting it to test ~10.77/10.78 again - but could/should form a bullish pattern.
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Post by huh on Aug 29, 2014 12:45:15 GMT -5
Not liking where AKS peaked with that HOD. Would move support/stop up from <10.46 to <10.56. Needs to move over 10.85 again to stay bullish. Would move stop up to <10.73 now (mental stop). Expecting it to test ~10.77/10.78 again - but could/should form a bullish pattern. And the low since...10.74. Can't get closer than that - I added the extra penny cause MM's always get me on those freakin pennies! Over 10.84 (added a penny) will get 11.09. Under 10.74 will get...well, lower. (likely 9.90-10.02)
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Post by huh on Aug 29, 2014 14:57:11 GMT -5
Would move stop up to <10.73 now (mental stop). Expecting it to test ~10.77/10.78 again - but could/should form a bullish pattern. And the low since...10.74. Can't get closer than that - I added the extra penny cause MM's always get me on those freakin pennies! Over 10.84 (added a penny) will get 11.09. Under 10.74 will get...well, lower. (likely 9.90-10.02) Weeeee....
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Post by novie08 on Aug 29, 2014 16:15:44 GMT -5
Honestly may take what I can get if it reaches 11.09...just enough to cover the fees and a little change. Depends how greedy I get, lol.
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Post by huh on Aug 29, 2014 18:19:38 GMT -5
Honestly may take what I can get if it reaches 11.09...just enough to cover the fees and a little change. Depends how greedy I get, lol. I wouldn't be so anxious to sell it. Yesterday's low was significant, and it held. And that candle looks like the same candle the indices put in on the 61.8 FIB at the bottom of every one of their pullbacks. That was a 61.8 retracement of the recent up trend for AKS - as was the 08/21 low, the 08/15 low... Hard to imagine, but this pattern has the potential to revisit the Jan '10 highs, but would need to go parabolic in order to do it. However, because of that, it might be worth sticking with it and only selling now if it closes under the rising 61.8 FIBs, or if it were to lose that rising trend line in place since since 08/15. That's a pretty steep slope, meaning your trailing would rise fast as well. Here's a look at that rising trendline and the 61.8 FIB pullback (if it were to go parabolic, the rising trend lines would only get steeper) And here's the possible long term bullish pattern:
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Post by novie08 on Sept 2, 2014 10:22:42 GMT -5
Hmmm. Damned if T/R didn't UPGRADE it yesterday. So of course, it's -1.5% so far today, but very volatile. Held on but could be some s-t weakness for sure.
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Post by huh on Sept 3, 2014 9:12:46 GMT -5
Checkout this crazy move in AKS this morning...and what it did. And it did that with X up over 3%. MM-Mulligan? Could be setting up for a big upside move. <10.23 is the worst case stop, but should hold 10.40's now. Another good example why you have to use mental stops, or at least hard stops a little under the FIB supports to avoid getting hit by stop runs.
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Post by novie08 on Sept 3, 2014 12:15:03 GMT -5
AK Steel Says Furnace Shutdown to Hurt Results 3 hours 37 minutes ago - DJNF
By Chelsey Dulaney AK Steel Holdings Corp. said its third-quarter results will be weighed down by an unplanned furnace outage at a Kentucky plant and lower production levels.
The steel company said its Ashland Works blast furnace has returned to operation but continues to operate below normal levels. As a result, it plans to accelerate a planned outage to the fourth quarter from the first half of next year, which will dent its results in the third and fourth quarters.
The 28-day outage, starting in late October, is expected to bring down the company's third-quarter results by about $25 million. Fourth-quarter results will be affected by as much as $44 million due to repair and lost-production costs, the company said.
AK Steel said it expects shipments to fall by about 3% in the third quarter from the second quarter to 1.35 million tons, and it expects to report a profit of 5 cents to 10 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters projected earnings of 26 cents a share.
The company said strong demand from the automotive industry partly offsets the production slowdown.
The company also said Wednesday that its acquisition of the steel mill Severstal Dearborn LLC, which services the Detroit car industry, has received regulatory clearance. The company expects the deal to close in the third quarter, which could allow AK Steel to use the more-than-century-old mill while the Ashland Works furnace is down. Started to buy more, but this changed my mind. So watch it run now!
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Post by huh on Sept 3, 2014 12:15:40 GMT -5
Checkout this crazy move in AKS this morning...and what it did. And it did that with X up over 3%. MM-Mulligan? View AttachmentCould be setting up for a big upside move. <10.23 is the worst case stop, but should hold 10.40's now. Another good example why you have to use mental stops, or at least hard stops a little under the FIB supports to avoid getting hit by stop runs. Well I made a mess of that call.
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Post by huh on Sept 4, 2014 10:36:43 GMT -5
Checkout this crazy move in AKS this morning...and what it did. And it did that with X up over 3%. MM-Mulligan? View AttachmentCould be setting up for a big upside move. <10.23 is the worst case stop, but should hold 10.40's now. Another good example why you have to use mental stops, or at least hard stops a little under the FIB supports to avoid getting hit by stop runs. Well I made a mess of that call. And of course AKS is up more than 5% today. I give up on the short term calls on this sucker. I'll leave it with this thought... AKS has a long term potential target of ~26.50. In the nearer term it should hold 9.90's. If it doesn't, it could fall to 8.60's/8.70's before resuming uptrend. If it break over $11 before that, then it is likely well on it's way.
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Post by huh on Sept 8, 2014 7:54:50 GMT -5
Well I made a mess of that call. And of course AKS is up more than 5% today. I give up on the short term calls on this sucker. I'll leave it with this thought... AKS has a long term potential target of ~26.50. In the nearer term it should hold 9.90's. If it doesn't, it could fall to 8.60's/8.70's before resuming uptrend. If it break over $11 before that, then it is likely well on it's way. 9.97 is the number to hold for AKS this morning. Trade under there for more than a few minutes and it sets-up for a H&S target in the 8.70's. I may be way wrong (& recent calls would suggest I am), but my gut keeps telling me that this bearish pattern will get squeezed & the much larger bullish pattern could play out. This set-up looks so much like many of the other big names that got squeezed recently. It's trading ~9.90 in pre-market. If it opens here or lower, than rises back above 9.98, then good odds that will happen. But will have to respect the pps either way today.
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Post by huh on Sept 8, 2014 8:44:46 GMT -5
And of course AKS is up more than 5% today. I give up on the short term calls on this sucker. I'll leave it with this thought... AKS has a long term potential target of ~26.50. In the nearer term it should hold 9.90's. If it doesn't, it could fall to 8.60's/8.70's before resuming uptrend. If it break over $11 before that, then it is likely well on it's way. 9.97 is the number to hold for AKS this morning. Trade under there for more than a few minutes and it sets-up for a H&S target in the 8.70's. I may be way wrong (& recent calls would suggest I am), but my gut keeps telling me that this bearish pattern will get squeezed & the much larger bullish pattern could play out. This set-up looks so much like many of the other big names that got squeezed recently. It's trading ~9.90 in pre-market. If it opens here or lower, than rises back above 9.98, then good odds that will happen. But will have to respect the pps either way today. Would have been more bullish had AKS fell below 9.97 before running for the opening gap fill.
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Post by clinton on Sept 8, 2014 9:52:35 GMT -5
so evidently AKS is buying other mills
isnt this how coal miners screwed themselves? expanding at the top of a cycle?
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